Education

Insider Buying Week 10-31-25 You Are All Lining Up to Lose Your Jobs

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If you’re not in tech, you’re losing money in the stock market. The RSP, the equal weighted index of the 500 largest  companies lost almost 3% (-2.7% actual) The S&P 500 made  a modest gain last week, up 0.70%. It really doesn’t matter that much since everyone is mostly invested in the S&P 500 index as opposed to individual stocks. Indexers have long been the tail which wags the dog. The widely copied S&P 500 index reached a record 37% of Mag 7 tech stocks. If you expand that definition just a bit to tech related, it soars to near … Read more

Insider Buying Week 6-16-23

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Stock markets don’t go up every day, or do they? Friday might have been the crack in the armor as the generals sold off a bit. It’s hard to imagine what will bring the market down in the near term other than a bout of profit-taking in the big tech stocks that have run on AI mania. Of course, there are always black swans landing in unanticipated places, but a market being overvalued has never been a reliable case for a sell-off. That’s always a dicey proposition, thinking like that, but the bull is out in the pasture- there’s no … Read more

Insider Buying Week 6-09-23 Investors are Clipping Coupons while the S&P 500 storms higher 12% YTD

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It was a quiet week when it came to insider buying.  Dish Networks had a big percentage move off the bottom as rumors floated that Amazon might be finally making a move with the cellular bandwidth that Dish has spent so many billions of dollars accumulating.  On Friday, it gave back 12.5%.  Nothing deters  Director DeFranco as he bought $ 1.8 million more of Dish. There might actually be a plan for their madness, and it may have nothing at all to do with Amazon.  Perhaps there is a SpaceX rescue coming?  At this point, Dish stock is like an … Read more

When it comes to Financial Advice Bard and Chatbot GPT are just a new twist on the Old Shell Game

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All the buzz and the action are about Chatbot GPT, Bard, and large language model generative text and imaging capabilities.  I’ve heard this hailed as the most important invention since electricity and fire. I want to call a giant timeout and bubble alert.  As you know, as a first step in my analytic process, I assiduously track insider buying and selling using paid services like Secform4.com to scrape free information off the SEC Edgar website. I try to fathom what the insider sees that Mr. Market may be missing.  So I asked Bard (Google’s beta AI offering) what insider filings … Read more

Hedge Fund Analysts Class 2nd Semester- a Word about Attendance

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I have very flexible rules about work and participation in the Insiders Intern Analyst program. Still, one of them is non-negotiable, and I make that clear in the interview process. The main question I asked everyone in the intern interview process- is whether you will give it the time it deserves, not just for yourself but out of respect for my time and the time of our fellow interns. If you can’t make a meeting, that’s understandable, but you should put forth and share work or insight of some kind to make up for your absence. it’s assumed you are … Read more

Insider Buying Week 2-10-23

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When I started developing the Insiders Fund’s strategy in 2001, I knew I would miss out on some of the all-time greatest investments since founders of disruptive companies are loaded to the gills with their own company’s stock and don’t need to buy more of it. That was all right with me if could forgo this “pot of gold” and by doing so avoid the scams, frauds, and charlatans that populate the financial world.  This week we have the rare insider buy at a potential pot of gold, Vicarious Surgical, a true med tech disruptor.   Name: John Morici Position: … Read more

Strange Days Insiders Abandon the Market Week 10-21-22

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“Strange days have found usStrange days have tracked us downThey’re going to destroyOur casual joysWe shall go on playing or find a new town”- the Doors 1967   We had some technical difficulties with The Insiders Report in getting our payment module to work.  So until we can figure out where the theme and the payment module collide, The Insiders Report is free. Unfortunately, there isn’t much in the way of insider activity to write about, but that’s not stopping the market from lifting. The Dow soared 748 points, and the S&P rose 2.37% on Friday ending one of the … Read more

Insider Buying Week 10-7-22 Biohaven $BHVN WOW!

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Curious about how well insiders are doing with their buys? Scroll through the blog posts and see for yourself Before we dive deep into reading the tea leaves of insider buying, I want you to read this missive all the way to the end for our thoughts on Biovhaven BHVN. All I can say is Wow, wow, wow! It’s up a whopping 43.58% this last week. If you were paying attention, the modest Insider Report subscription fee paid for itself for a lifetime with the August 26th report. We are now deep into the quarterly earnings blackout, and most insiders … Read more

Earnings Black Out Period will Begin Soon but No One Really Knows When

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I think it’s time to review the earnings blackout window as this lack of insider buying provides fuel for short sellers to attack the confidence of equity investors.  Not that they need much help with this as the inflation, interest rate, and beating war drums provide plenty of fuel to discourage investors.  I was encouraged to find this academic article which confirmed much of my bias, that there are no formal rules about these earnings blackout windows. Much of this article is inspired by the scholarly works of Wayne R. Guay (The Wharton School), Shawn Kim (The Wharton School), and … Read more

Live Webinar Monday April 19th 6:00PM The Insiders Guide to Shredding the Markets

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I’m spilling the beans, the secret sauce during this live webinar. Everything I’ve learned in over twenty years of trading the markets including how we just earned 92% in 92 days in a diversified portfolio. Every question will be answered in the time permitted or by a follow-up email. I guarantee you that there will be something for everyone, beginner or the most sophisticated- this will be a live educational event you won’t want to miss. Click on the Image Above to Register for the Event or go to https://events.marketsmarttoday.com/webinar-apr-19-linkedin/ Lots of great stuff here are just a few of … Read more

Strategic Insider Selling – SEC gives giant loophole to corporate insiders

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First off- this is not news.  This loophole has been in existence since 2000 but it’s sinister characteristics have not been adequately publicized.  I am including in this post the entire paper I found from the Yale Law Library written by Todd Henderson of the University of Chicago Law School, Alan D. Jagolinzer from Stanford University Graduate School of Business, and Karl A. Muller, III of  The Pennsylvania State University Smeal College of Business.  It’s the most comprehensive analysis of this problem I have found to date although the authors are predictably looking at it from the perspective of protecting their corporate clients not John … Read more

We Will See QE3. Just Not Until We Need It

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The notes from yesterday’s Fed meeting have managed to spur back-to-back down days in the market, seemingly all based on the lack of language hinting at an immediate round of Quantative Easing.  This market is hooked.  It fiends for stimulus injections, pitching a tantrum at the slightest hint of being denied what it assumes is “promised.” This reluctance to dole out yet another “dose,” this sign of maturity on the part of the Fed is a glimmer of hope that fiscal responsibility is on the horizon.  Over medicating is a self fulfilling prophecy, spiraling into the depths of physical reliance. … Read more

Bear markets begin in good times. Bull markets begin in bad times.

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By: Harvey Sax I haven’t been able to conclusively cite the origin of the above quote, ‘Bear markets begin in good times.  Bull markets begin in bad times’ but undoubtedly it was from an investor who survived the bear market.  The good news is that you can make money in any kind of market.  You can profit from the market rising or going down.  You can even make money in a market that doesn’t move at all. But what you can’t do is make money without a plan.  Ultimately you will only be successful by trading on your own ideas … Read more

CBOE – Index Option Strategies – Buying Index Puts to Hedge

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Calculating Index Contracts to Hedge a Portfolio Stock prices tend to move in tandem in response to the overall stock market as measured by the S&P 500 Index (SPX). The 500 stocks that comprise the S&P 500 Index represent almost 85% of the stock market value in the United States. Therefore, the index is an excellent reflection of the overall stock market. If an investor owns a portfolio of stocks and is concerned about a near-term downward move in the overall market, purchasing the appropriate SPX put options could be a desirable alternative to hedging each stock individually. Determining the … Read more

Are you agressive or conservative?

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A lot of that depends on the beta of your portfolio.  But before we get into all of that, let’s go over just what beta is. Stock Beta is a ratio that indicates how a stock fluctuates with relation to the market.  Beta is a indicator of market risk also called volatility.  When you research a stock, look at the beta to get an idea as to how choppy the returns on this stock will be with relation to the market.  If this doesn’t align with your risk tolerance, this stock may not be for you. Here are some guidelines … Read more

| ZeroHedge

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James Turk Interview With Eric Sprott On, You Guessed It, Gold Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/08/2011 21:11 -0500 Bond Central Banks Eric Sprott Gross Domestic Product Hyperinflation International Monetary Fund Meltdown Precious Metals Reserve Currency Sprott Asset Management Eric Sprott, Chairman of Sprott Asset Management, and James Turk, Director of the GoldMoney Foundation, meet in Munich and talk about the Munich Precious metals conference (Edelmetallmesse). They comment on Eric Sprott’s speech at the conference and how increasing interventions by central banks, from zero interest rates to money printing and bond buying have completely distorted the financial markets. Other discussion … Read more

Poll: 65% of Americans Support Balanced Budget Amendment – Hit & Run : Reason Magazine

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A Sachs/Mason Dixon poll released today [PDF] has found that “65 percent of the public supports” a balanced budget amendment, “with 27 percent opposed, [and] 8 percent undecided.” By party affiliation, that breaks down as “81 percent of Republicans, 68 percent of independents and 45 percent of Democrats.” This jibes with the first-ever Reason-Rupe Poll, which found that 74 percent of Americans think that the federal government needs some kind of spending cap to keep expenditures in line with revenues. Percentage breakdown there among R/I/D: 85/76/64. Here, visualize it: via Poll: 65% of Americans Support Balanced Budget Amendment – Hit … Read more

Businomics Blog: Small Business in the Economic Doldrums

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Small Business in the Economic Doldrums Small business is down in the dumps. Just compare the attitudes shown in NFIB’s survey of small business owners with the Business Roundtable’s survey of corporate CEOs: It’s always a little dangerous to compare one survey with another, but it sure seems that the corporate honchos are feeling better than they did before the recession, whereas small biz owners are up from the depths of the downturn, but not yet back to where they had been. Better understanding comes (as usual) from looking at the hard numbers in financial statements. Earnings of small business … Read more

‘s‬‏

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Buffett is often quoted as saying he likes to buy a business good enough that any idiot can run because eventually one will.  As it turns out Buffett got that nugget from Peter Lynch and this is the proof of it.  Watch this interesting video of Buffett being Buffett. Warren Buffett – How to Identify a Good Investment In many ways you won’t find two dissimilar famous investors as Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett. Buffett invests in a concentrated way often saying things like the odds of your tenth best idea being as good as your first is low. Or … Read more

”s stock

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Balkanization, or Balkanisation, is a geopolitical term originally used to describe the process of fragmentation or division of a region or state into smaller regions or states that are often hostile or non-cooperative with each other.. You need to look no further than a stock chart of Google or this unbelievably depressing Chart of the Day from the SAI Business Insider. Facebook’s Unbelievable Effect On The Rest Of The Web. Or for that matter the meteoric rise in price of LinkedIn’s IPO.  When I first started an Internet company in 1994, the web held the promise of making the world … Read more

Oh Mama can this really be the end?

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Western civilization pretty much started with Greece. Can it be poetic justice that it could end there as  well?  The West as we refer to the United States and European countries has been on a decade long descent versus the East.  While our standard of living has fallen, theirs by all  measures has risen.    Our debt hobbled leveraged hedonistic society appears to be crumbling versus the  crawl out of the mud emerging markets.   There is a great transfer of wealth and the most important asset mankind has, hope itself.  While the West is sinking into that collective quiet state of desperation,  … Read more

Another Reason Insiders are So Good to follow: Short-Swing Profit Rule

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Warren Buffett is fond of saying something like view stock market investing as if you had a ticket punch with only the ability to have ten punches.  You’d think long and hard about what you bought before you put that hole in your ticket.    He also is noted to say that your third and fourth best ideas are not likely to be as good as your first best idea.  When insiders buy stock in their companies they are subject to a very punishing rule known as  the Short-Swing Profit Rule.  What Does It Mean?   The Short Swing Rule is a Securities … Read more

Guggenheim ABCS Gives Us A-B-C But No Y

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Guggenheim ABCS Gives Us A-B-C But No Y June 10, 2011 by Ron Rowland Filed under Commentary, ETF IPOs (New ETFs)   The ABC acronym stands for Australia, Brazil, and Canada.  The Guggenheim ABC High Dividend ETF (ABCS), launched earlier this week (6/8/11), packages the ten highest yielding stocks from each country into a convenient ETF format. The 30 securities consist of U.S. listed ADRs from all three countries and stocks from Australia and Canada listed in their home countries.  The underlying BNY Mellon ABC Index selects the top 10 stocks or ADRs with the highest yield for each country. … Read more

Warren Buffett’s Portfolio – Shocking Truth About How He Trades Options

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By Kirk Du Plessis I’ve told people for years and years that Warren Buffett’s portfolio and Berkshire Hathaway company publicly discloses that they are naked put option sellers. More specifically they sell index put options, the exact same strategy we use here at Option Alpha. Why Is This So Shocking? Honestly I always get a weird response when I tell people this. Why is it so shocking to think that one of the best investors of all time my use the same strategy that I prefer. Well, I guess I’m using his strategy and not the other way around right? … Read more

Technical Analysis that Works

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  “You see I can predict this stock went down!”   I’ve read a great deal on technical analysis and spent a great deal more time testing various indicators, programs, backtesting, and attending seminars on the subject.  At first I thought I would write a piece with a top down view and summarize the major indicators in use today.  I’ve hesitated and even anguished over doing that for a couple of reasons:  But first let’s set the discussion by quoting Wikipedia’s succinct definition: “Technical analysis is a financial term used to denote a security analysis discipline for forecasting the direction … Read more

Segmenting to Make Better Decisions

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This post was stimulated by this academic research piece: When Smaller Menus Are Better: Variability in Menu-Setting Ability.  The truth is, we do best in choosing between a limited menu of options.  Let me give you an example.

For a while, my wife asked me if we could replace our living room furniture.  Trying to be frugal while starting up my business, I showed her some items from Ikea, and she said yes, but I could not replace the recliner at Ikea.

So, after a month, she asked about the recliner.  I did a little searching and went to La-Z-Boy.  (Note: she uses the recliner most.)  I looked around the place and had three thoughts:

  • Low price
  • Reclines the way she likes.
  • Fabrics/colors that I know she likes.

Those criteria enabled me to narrow down the field to two recliners, and a field of six or so “maybes.”  I know my wife pretty well; she trusts me in purchases that many wives would not let their husbands touch.  But for something she uses so much, I took her to the store, along with our youngest (who got a kick out of playing with the electronic recliners).  I took her to the two recliners.  She oohed over them and sat in both.  She liked the fabric better in one, and the comfort of the other.  She tentatively chose the latter, and went on to look at other recliners. As she went on, she said that she wasn’t finding anything that she really liked.  We ended up buying the second chair.  It’s at home now, and she likes it.  Score one more for the husband.

The key to my success was winnowing down the choices.  There were over 100 recliners at the store. But by eliminating options that I knew would not work, I came to solutions that would save my wife time, while

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19 Famous Quotes From Great Investors That You Can Still Rely On Today

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By Kirk Du Plessis I love reading trading books and learning from some of the great investors and traders. My personal preference is to learn from the “Old Guys” like Livermore, Buffett, Lynch and Graham. These guys laid the foundation for modern investing. They didn’t trade on technicals and always offer great insight. Here are 19 great quotes. Add your favorite quote via the Facebook Comments! “The first rule is not to lose. The second rule is not to forget the first rule.” “If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians.” “Risk … Read more

‘s Road to IPO

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Linkedin is a social network geared to the work world. The company has more than 1,000 employees and 100 million members in more than 200 countries. Now it will be one of the first major social media IPOs. Let’s take a look at the history behind Linkedin’s IPO… Source: The Credit Score Blog

On Longevity Derivatives

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I am a firm believer in “you can’t get something for nothing.”  So it is when a new derivative is proposed.  Either there are natural counterparties to take up the exposure (reducing their risk), or speculators must be encouraged to take the risk (more likely).

So, with longevity derivatives, the risk is people living too long leading to more pension payments in future years.  The proposition is: find a party that is willing to make more payments if mortality is better than expected, and offer him a payment, or series of payments, as an inducement to enter the transaction.

Let’s think for a moment, what entities benefit from a rise in longevity?  I can think of one: life insurers.  But there is a problem: anti-selection.  People who buy life insurance tend to be sicker than those of the general population, who tend to be sicker than annuitants.  Annuitants live the longest, and their lifespans improve the most on average.  Life insurers would find taking on longevity risk to be a dirty hedge at best for their life insurance books.  In general there have been few reinsurance agreements for longevity risk for immediate annuity portfolios, but then, that would be a really small component of the life insurance industry at present.

Even when terminal funding was permitted (back in the 1980s to early 90s) — where plan sponsors could buy annuities from insurers to free themselves from their

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