Iran

Israelis Killed in Bulgaria Blast as Netanyahu Blames Iran – Bloomberg

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Israelis Killed In Bulgaria Blast As Netanyahu Blames IranBy Elizabeth Konstantinova and Calev Ben-David – Jul 18, 2012 1:43 PM MTFacebook ShareLinkedInGoogle +15 COMMENTSPrintQUEUEQSix people were killed and more than 30 injured in an blast on a bus carrying Israeli tourists in Bulgaria. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu blamed Iran for the attack.Five people were killed in the explosion at the airport in Burgas, on the Black Sea coast, and one person died in hospital, the Foreign Ministry in Sofia said on its website today. Bulgarian authorities are working on the assumption that the attack was an act of terrorism, … Read more

Why Do You Hate The Oil Sector? And Yes, I Do Mean You..

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Watching SLB trade lower and lower is what I’m talking about.  Watching HES and HAL trade into the red is what I’m talking about. Watching BAS get crushed is what I’m talking about.  The market hates oil and oil service stocks.  Period.  Prices are high, these companies are making profits hand over fist, but demand for these companies simply isn’t there.  Despite SLB’s conference call, fracking still offers a major opportunity for these companies.  China is trying to sever their lifeline to coal, and shale drilling is the surgeon.  Sure natural gas is a big black eye, but this world … Read more

Why Are Oil Markets So Short Sighted?

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Other than the occasional headline, the Iran embargo is a distant memory.  And oil markets seemed to forget that an increasing oil reserve is a direct result of preparing for such an embargo.  Just because reserve levels happened to beat expectations (it’s not like analysts regularly and accurately deal with embargo situations anyways), is it reason for a 2% or more correction in USO?  I doubt it.

CHART OF THE DAY: How To Protect Your Money In A War With Iran, And An Oil Spike

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CHART OF THE DAY: How To Protect Your Money In A War With Iran, And An Oil Spike  by Joe Weisenthal One of the big fears for the market is obviously an oil spike, possibly caused by a war with Iran.Such an event would probably be bad for stocks if oil surged but given the market and economic momentum, people arent inclined to just bet against the market on the chance of this geopolitical event.So heres an idea from Barclays Sreekala Kochugovindan. via CHART OF THE DAY: How To Protect Your Money In A War With Iran, And An Oil … Read more

Supposed Pipeline Explosion Drives Oil Above $110 A Barrel, Reported False After Market Close

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If a falsified report that a Saudi pipeline can drive oil over $110 a barrel, just imagine the repercussions of a full Iran-Israel conflict.  According to the report that was later confirmed “completely false” after US  markets had just closed, a natural gas pipeline in the city of Awamiyah exploded resulting in numerous injuries and deaths.  Thats right, natural gas drove up the price of crude simply on rumor.  That should give you an idea of how volatile the Iran situation is on the markets, despite stepping out of the headlines momentarily.  Considering we have close to two years supply … Read more

IAEA Gets Nowhere With Iran Nuclear Talks

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While Iran’s willingness to reopen talks with the International Atomic Energy Agency about their nuclear program was a surprise, it seems that the motion was mostly for show.    Several rounds of discussions yielded no access to a military site in Parchin which is suspected to be a weapons development facility.  There has been no agreement on further discussing the matter.  Light crude is hovering close to $106 a barrel today, so much for  Prince Alwaleed’s promise to keep oil under the $100 a barrel mark. From FT: “The International Atomic Energy Agency has reported that it held a “disappointing” … Read more

Nothing much wants to make this market go down but I guarantee you this one will

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Obama nears his nuclear moment By Edward Luce At the start of Barack Obama’s term, few moments better crystallised America’s change of face than his “New Day” video address to the Iranian people. Ending with a salutation in Farsi, Mr Obama offered Iran a new era of “co-operation”. It followed from the promise in his inaugural address to “extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist”. via Obama nears his nuclear moment – FT.com.

”s Day Love From Iran: Escorted Through Hormuz

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As the Carrier Abraham Lincoln left the gulf Tuesday, it’s battle group contingent was on high alert.  According to the AP: The passage ended a Gulf mission that displayed Western naval power amid heightened tensions with Tehran, which has threatened to choke off vital oil shipping lanes.The Lincoln was the centerpiece of a flotilla that entered the Gulf last month along with British and French warships in a display of Western unity against Iranian threats. There was no immediate comment by Iran about the Lincoln’s departure.  Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has said it plans its own naval exercises near the strait, … Read more

Saudi Arabia Will Not Let Oil Go Above $100

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According to Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal al Saud, the billionaire head of Kingdom Holding Co., Saudi Arabia is poised to limit the appreciation of oil to no greater than $100 a barrel. “We can use our leverage, our excess capacity to be sure to pump more [oil] if needed so it will not impact the consumer countries while they’re getting out of their recessions slowly but surely,” the prince said. As for Iran, he said it is important for the U.S. and other nations to put sanctions on the “renegade country” to force its government to negotiate. Issuing an … Read more

With Iran Offline, Oil Could Jump 30%

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Despite our massive emergency oil reserves (see here), the IMF estimates a halt in Iran crude could produce a rather dramatic effect in the price of oil: “If Iran halts exports to countries without offsets from other sources it would likely trigger an “initial” oil price jump of 20 to 30 percent, or about $20 to $30 a barrel, the IMF said in its first public comment on a possible Iranian oil supply disruption.” “Financial sanctions against Tehran may be ‘tantamount to an oil embargo’ and would imply supply declines of about 1.5 million barrels per day from the world’s … Read more

What Does a Third Carrier Battle Group in the Gulf Mean?

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Having already recently warned the US (Jan 3), Iran is certainly not going to appreciate the addition of a third Carrier Battle Group around the Strait of Hormuz which was announced yesterday on Navaltoday.com. Generally a Battle Group makes for a bit of a procession.  Although it varies depending on the mission, the structure of a Group generally consists of: the aircraft carrier itself, two offensive guided-missle cruisers to engage land targets, two destroyers for defensive maneuvers against submarines and aircraft, a frigate to protect from submarine attacks, two submarines also for defensive purposes, and a supply ship to provide support … Read more

Like Herding Cats? Try Trading Oil

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Today’s rampant fluctuation in oil was a perfect example of how much political and headline risk from Iran surround the markets.  While nothing fundamental has changed from our initial assessment of the Iran situation seen here, all it took was Iran reiterating they are pissed and the IEA emphasizing to the EU that reserves exist for a reason. NEW YORK—Iran’s threat to immediately halt oil sales to the European Union pushed prices above $101 a barrel, but crude retreated after the International Energy Agency later said it could release strategic inventories if a supply emergency occurred.  Light, sweet crude oil for … Read more

Iran, Nuclear Policy, and America: An Investment Opportunity In Disaster?

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  We have a delicate balancing act at hand between the threat of an emerging nuclear power, our rapacious thirst for oil, and responsible diplomatic policy.  The consternation in the air is palpable, bringing to mind Buffet’s famous words “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”.  So how does one put such words of wisdom into an actionable trade idea?  Since going long nuclear fallout seems short sighted, let’s look at how to take advantage of a potential event driven jump in the price of oil once we fully grasp the situation at hand. At … Read more

The Ban on Iran: Tehran continues with threats

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As promised, the European Union followed through with their promise to ban all oil imports from Iran today in an effort to halt the country’s nuclear development program.  The halt on oil was accompanied by a number of other provisions including sanctions on trading with their central bank.  Just days after the US, French, and British militaries sent a flotilla of warships through the gulf, the combined effect of the ban and military actions are sure to add pressure to our already tense relationship with Iran who reiterated their threat of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz.  Markets responded … Read more

Shocking fact about Iran oil embargo consequences

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Without question, if I knew that a disruption of oil supplies from Iran would occur, I’d bet the farm on a dramatic rise in crude oil prices.  But how rationale is this popular consensus opinion?  I quote from Daniel Yergins, The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of  the Modern World. “Currently, IEA nations have about 1.5 billion barrels of public stocks, of which about 700 million barrels are in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Were Iranian exports to disappear from the market, the 1.5 billion could compensate for the shortfall for more than two years.” So rationale expectations and … Read more

Iran To Give Back Drone As A Toy

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Iran Says It Will Give Back The Downed US Sentinel Drone — As A Toy Model Is Iran’s display of a sense of  humor a break in the tension between the two Nations or an attempt to belittle the American military in the eyes of Iranian citizens?  I think the $4 price tag suggests the latter.. After losing the RQ-170 drone in the skies over Iran in November, the White House first admitted the drone was real, and then further outraged the Iranians by asking for it back. With a burst of Irony, Tehran has agreed to comply, but instead … Read more

France Said to Seek Faster Start to EU Iran Oil Embargo

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Oil markets see a bit of a boost from France’s push toward cutting the grace period before implementing a ban on Iranian crude in half, breaking a 4 day loosing streak. Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) — France is pushing for faster enforcement of the European Union’s proposed ban on oil imports from Iran, two officials with knowledge of the matter said. France wants the embargo to be delayed by no more than three months to allow nations including Greece, Italy and Spain to find alternative supplies, according to a French government official, who declined to be identified, citing state rules. While … Read more