Trading Ideas

Insider Buying 02-14-25 Buyers Coming Back as Blackout Abates and Uncertainty Rocks Stocks

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As Q4 earnings announcements start to wind down, we would expect to see a pickup in insider activity. We are seeing that, particularly in sectors that have sold off in anticipation of possible Trump regulatory changes that would make business more challenging and potentially less profitable. Of course, no one really knows for certain about any of this as Trump has shown a great propensity to say one thing and actually do another.  He may be bluffing, posturing or may change his mind. It’s very unpredictable but you have to assume when insiders buy into this, they are considering this, … Read more

Insider Buying Week 09-27-24 Is Inhibrx Biosciences another Biohaven? Insiders Seem to think so

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The bulletproof market stumbles on; not escalating war in the Middle East or a tumultuous Presidential election in the U.S. seems to faze it. Insiders are mainly sitting this one out, whether it’s the priciness of the market or the quarterly earnings blackout window; insiders are on the sidelines except when it comes to selling. They are hitting the bid like trout on a hatchery pond. Notable sales alone last week included Draft King, Banc of America (Berkshire unloading), Carvana, Seagate Technology, Toll Brothers, and that was just what was reported on Friday last week.  It’s hard to glean much … Read more

Grail spinoff- the largest AI Machine Learning Project in Medicine- Galleri is “The Holy Grail” of Genomic Testing

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Grail is hard to analyze, but the potential upside is staggering.  Due to their regulatory challenges, there is a paucity of information, obfuscated by likely insider dealing and related third-party transactions, and an abundance of lawyers due to regulatory challenges. Icahn waged a proxy fight, and ultimately, the EU forced Illumina to divest Grail.  Analysts are probably waiting until the spin-off is done on June 24th before there will be much commentary, as many banks have been feeding at this trough . But first, here are some quick facts about the spinoff itself. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1699031/000119312524148672/d556103dex991.htm#toc556103_ Grail will only have slightly over … Read more

Fathers Day Insider Buying Week 06-14-24

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The post took a backseat to Father’s Day last week. Looking closely, you can see me with DJI FPV goggles next to my son at Tunnel Park. In the background, the sun sets over Antelope Island in the Great Salt Lake. Considering the quarter end and recurring blackout period, there was an unusual amount of insider buying.  I will update the rest of the entries, so check back later in the week for more. You can be an insider, too– by clicking here   Name: Michael L Speiser Position: Director Transaction Date: 2023-06-07 Shares Bought: 76,200 Average Price Paid: $131.09 … Read more

Insider Buying Week 05-17-24 Biotech Bonanza

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I was a little late in finishing the blog, as there were many more names to research. Most of the quarterly earnings are behind us, and it is heartening to see that insider buying has picked up a little. Speculative biotech is heating up.   Name: F Thomson Leighton Position: Chief Executive Officer Transaction Date: 2023-05-14 Shares Bought: 22,000 Average Price Paid: $92.68 Cost: $2,038,960 Company: Akamai Technologies Inc (AKAM) Akamai aims to empower and defend life online. Since 1998, Akamai has created and delivered technologies to help global businesses design, deliver, and protect their digital experiences on their widely … Read more

Insider Buying Week 05-10-24 The Earnings Blackout Curtain is Lifting

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The blog is a work in progress, like a public journal/filing system. Most of the quarterly earnings are behind us, and it is heartening to see that insider buying has picked up a little. Could there be some value in a market that feels scoured over, like an 80% off sale at Neiman Marcus? There were even some large insider buys in marquis names. Could there be some gems here?  This is my first crack at most of them. The Earnings Blackout Curtain is Lifting. You can be an insider, too– by clicking here   Name: Lester B Knight Position: … Read more

Insider Buying Week 04-26-24 In the Heart of 1st Quarter Earnings Blackout Darkness

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We are deep in the blackout period when most companies prohibit insiders from trading in their stock prior to quarterly earnings. It’s been ugly for the bulls, but there might be some green shoots. You can be an insider, too– by clicking here Name: Henry A  Fernandez Position: Chairman and CEO Transaction Date: 2024-04-25 Shares Bought: 13,000 Average Price Paid: $465.92 Cost: $6,056,955 Company: MSCI Inc. (MSCI) Name: CD Baer Pettit Position: President & COO Transaction Date: 2024-04-25 Shares Bought: 7,500 Average Price Paid: $459.41 Cost: $3,445,575 Company: MSCI Inc. (MSCI) MSCI Inc. is a top provider of crucial decision-support … Read more

Insider Buying Week 04-19-24

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We are deep in the blackout period when most companies prohibit insiders from trading in their stock prior to quarterly earnings. It’s been ugly out there for the bulls. Name: Vincent P. DiFronzo Position: EVP,-Air Force & Comb Commands Transaction Date: 2024-04-12 Shares Bought: 795 Average Price Paid: $126.04 Cost: $100,202 Company: Science Applications International Corp (SAIC) Science Applications International Corporation offers technical, engineering, and enterprise information technology (IT) services primarily in the United States. The company’s offerings include IT modernization; digital engineering; artificial intelligence; weapon systems support, which designs, builds, modifies, integrates, and sustains weapon systems; and end-to-end services, … Read more

Insider Buying Week 04-12-24 and The Insiders Fund 1st Quarter Partner Letter

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We are deep in the blackout period when most companies prohibit insiders from trading in their stock prior to quarterly earnings. Nonetheless, that rarely stops insiders from finding ways to sell using the ubiquitous 10b 5-1 selling plan loophole that the SEC and corporate America arranged for themselves. There’s not much to write about this week on the corporate insider buying front, but we have a lot to say in The Insiders Fund 1st Quarter 2024 Partner letter on our website.  You can be an insider, too– by clicking here Follow us on Twitter for  insider buying alerts at https://twitter.com/theinsidersfund     … Read more

Insider Buying Week 03-22-24 Let the Games Begin

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An arms race is just beginning, but it’s not the traditional weapons of war. Artificial intelligence is the most disruptive technology to come along since the Internet. Large language models like Open AI’s ChatGPT are the machine learning equivalent of the Internet browser. The full-fledged arms race is underway.   Name: Brent Windom Position: Director Transaction Date: 2024-03-19 Shares Bought: 2,617 Average Price Paid: $83.00 Cost: $217,211 Transaction Date: 2024-03-15 Shares Bought: 2,683 Average Price Paid: $80.57 Cost: $216,173 Company: Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) Advanced Auto Parts, Inc. was formed in 1929 and is headquartered in Raleigh, North Carolina. … Read more

Insider Buying Week 03-08-24 FOMO or FEAR?

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I’ve been struggling to explain the speculative frenzy I sense in the markets. Stocks routinely go up and down 20% on earnings or even something as trivial as an analyst upgrade or downgrade yet the underlying market seems calm, benign even. The VIX, which is the current mathematic model for measuring short-term volatility, steadily trends lower. The VIX is a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500, and by now, everyone understands that the capitalization-weighted nature of that index dominates the recent stock market performance. The popular but obsolete already term ‘Magnificent 7’ refers to a handful of mega … Read more

Insider Purchases Last Week. Nvidia Ignites Massive CAPEX Expansion

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Something significant is happening when staid Dell Technologies is up 31% on its latest quarterly earnings. A giant uptick in capex spending is underway, and it is directly attributable to the stampede to embrace AI.   After a year or more of belt-tightening in tech spending, that moment has arrived, almost all at once, when companies realize they have to invest in AI or be disrupted or obsoleted by a Chatbot, robot, or some version of machine learning.  The architect behind this 20-year evolution is Nvdia. The lion’s share of the spend goes toward NVIDIA’s H100 or L40S GPUs — GPU Server For Deep Learning. … Read more

Insider Buying Week 02-23-24 Is Following Insider Buying Dead as a Strategy?

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Insider buying has been noticeably scarce in this bull leg of a market making all-time highs. The small amount of buying is not performing particularly well either.  You might find this news surprising from a hedge fund manager who has made a living reading these tea leaves for 23 years.  Take last Thursday, February 22nd, the morning after Nvidia reported blockbuster earnings.  I’m tracking about 400 stocks where insiders have purchased at least $200,000 of their company’s stock in the last year. This number has remained constant at 300-400 for the last 23 years. The average returns of those stocks … Read more

Insider Buying Week 02-16-24 Climbing the Wall of Worry

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  Name: Roger M. Singer Position: Director Transaction Date: 2024-02-12 Shares Bought: 500 Average Price Paid: $357.21 Cost: $178,605 Company: Everest Group Ltd. (EG) Name: John A Graf Position: Director Transaction Date: 2024-02-12 Shares Bought: 695 Average Price Paid: $356.75 Cost: $247,941 Company: Everest Group Ltd. (EG) Name: James Allan Williamson Position: EVP, Chief Operating Officer Transaction Date: 2024-02-09 Shares Bought: 700 Average Price Paid: $352.50 Cost: $246,750 Company: Everest Group Ltd. (EG) Name: Mike Karmilowicz Position: EVP, Pres/CEO Insurance Div Transaction Date: 2024-02-09 Shares Bought: 285 Average Price Paid: $352.39 Cost: $100,430 Company: Everest Group Ltd. (EG) Name: Juan … Read more

Insider Buying Week 02-09-24 Is it the Super Bowl or the Ripping AI Bandwagon?

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Finally, there is some work to do in analyzing insider buying. It’s not much, but it’s better than the last three weeks of nonexistent purchases.  Still, the lazy move, and perhaps the best move, is to get on the AI bandwagon with the companies that have proven they can monetize Now.   The popular wisdom is that the stock market looks forward six months or so, but the reality is quite different. Earnings season is the proof of it. Companies that miss revenues and earnings expectations are punished with swift declines in share value. Those that significantly surpass expectations experience hefty, … Read more

Insider Buying Week 01-26-24 Goose Egg None Zappo Gone

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  In the twenty-two years that I have been assiduously noting and observing insider buying, I have never seen a two-week period where there was not one notable insider purchase.  I understand we are in the heart of the earnings season blackout, where insiders are routinely restricted from buying or selling their company’s stock, but this is ridiculous.  There are plenty of insiders who have found a way to unload their company’s stock, but not one single corporate officer or director has made a purchase of $200,000 or more.  I don’t pay much attention to hedge funds and 10% holders … Read more

Insider Buying Week 12-29-23 Here We go Again with Rampant Speculation

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Here we go again, two insider buys in small biotech names that rocketed 43% and 76% last week.  This didn’t happen in a vacuum. For the last two months or so,  the daily top 50 largest percentage gainers and losers are filled with small-cap and bulletin board names you’ve never heard of, ripping up and down 40%-150% in a shark-like blood-infested feeding frenzy. The list is composed mostly of obscure biotech stocks, pre-revenue or little revenue shells, SPACS, and cryptocurrency names, scams, and fantasies inspired by occasional real biotech transactions, the most notable being the 273% premium Sanofi paid for … Read more

‘s Retreat Continues to Spike the Market

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While some stocks like the Magnificent Seven have had a phenomenal comeback year, many, many companies are depressed in value. For example, many REITs have poor returns, some as a consequence of the sharp rise in interest rates. Agree Realty had a return of -15.34% year-to-date (YTD.) Paying particular attention to significant insider buying is one way to force that discipline of buying cheaply on yourself. When not painting the tape or participating in required corporate ownership requirements, insiders are historically value buyers. This week, we highlight what we think are notable buys. Although we pay attention to selling, we … Read more

Insider Buying Week 12-15-23 Glad to See some Big Names and Big Dollars Returning to the Insider Buying Game

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While some stocks like the Magnificent Seven have had a phenomenal comeback year, many, many companies are depressed in value. We have no shortage of compelling investment ideas, but getting people to invest when values are low is the opposite of human nature. Paying particular attention to significant insider buying is one way to force that discipline on yourself. When not painting the tape or participating in required corporate ownership requirements, insiders are historically value buyers.  This week, we highlight what we think are notable buys. Although we pay attention to selling, we don’t write about this far more nuanced … Read more

Insider Buying Week 12-01-23 AI will Improve everything but the Tesla pickup truck

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FOMO  (fear of missing out in a year when the S&P is up over 20%) is in full swing. One thing not making the headlines is the market is essentially where it was two years ago, with investors on a roller coaster ride.  AI will improve everything except the Tesla pickup, and gasoline is the cheapest at the pump in years, even as the world seems to be throwing in the towel on preventing climate change. All that ESG and green talk seems to be more expensive than anyone wants to pay for. The magnificent seven took the week off … Read more

Insider Buying Week 11-17-23 Few Buyers Lots of Sellers

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   There are a few insider buys this week. As usual, there are a lot of sellers.    Name: Roland D Diggelmann Position: Director Transaction Date: 2023-11-13  Shares Bought: 315 Average Price Paid: $1,026.54 Cost: $323,360 Company: Mettler Toledo International Inc (MTD) Mettler Toledo International Inc. is a global leader in precision instrumentation and services. The company has strong leadership positions in most businesses and worldwide market leadership. The company is known as an innovator, and solutions are vital in key R&D, quality control, and manufacturing processes for customers in various industries, including life sciences, food, and chemicals. The sales … Read more

Insider Buying Week 11-03-23 Insider Buying offers Clues as to where Bargains might Await

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The difference between the 10-year Treasury Bond yield and the S&P 500 dividend yield is the largest it’s been since 2007.  The spread between interest earned on Treasury Bills and dividends reached levels not seen in 40 years. ~5% money market rates and an S&P 500 dividend yield of 1.52% cannot coexist indefinitely. This is not a condition for equilibrium. Something must give. Great amounts of money will be made in getting this right. In the immortal words of Dylan, the poet laureate, “Something is happening here; But you don’t know what it is.” The market changed its narrative last week from higher for longer … Read more

Insider Buying Week 10-20-23 – Next week may be the spookiest in some time.

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So far, 3rd quarter earnings haven’t done anything to dispel the gloom. The S&P 500 lost 2.39% last week. That’s hardly a surprise. What’s a bigger surprise is that the market is hanging on to any gains at all this year. We’ll find out how lopsided investment returns are when the tech giants report earnings this coming week. The entire S&P 500 now hangs on Microsoft, Google, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon as the broader market is a veritable dumpster fire. It seems like a tall order that investors continue to bid these stocks higher just because they have a lot … Read more

Insider Buying Week 10-06-23 Israel at War while the Fed Reserve Fights the American Consumer and Stock Market

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The market reached deeply technically oversold conditions.  Bullish divergence RSI was signaling a reversal. I would have said this reversal has room to run, but the war in Israel may reverse whatever animal spirits are forming. Give Peace a Chance looks like a nostalgic idea, with the axis of evil combined with Iran, Russia, and China financing it through the purchase of oil.  Why the U.S. doesn’t stop the transit of Iranian oil through the Hormuz straits is a mystery considering there have been dozens of provocative actions by Iran that have been stymied only by the U.S Navy coming … Read more

Insider Buying Week 9-29-23 as the Bar for Insider Buying is Rising

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You can’t say you were not warned. I’ve been clear with my thoughts about the misguided policy of the Federal Reserve raising rates to thwart inflation. Chairman Powell morphed chameleon-like into a new version of Paul Volker, a Paul Volker light at Jackson Hole in August 2022. He set the global economy on a tightening course that is academically correct but economically wrong. Reference this post from Insider Buying Week 8-26-22 Jerome Powell Debuts at Jackson Hole as “ChuckyIt was a blood-red day on the map of the market. As I wrote then, it’s true now. We have spent all … Read more

Insider Buying Week 9-22-23 The Setup Reminds me of the October Crash of 1987

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  This week’s blog post is especially brief. It’s not because brevity is the soul of wit, either. Insiders are in the third-quarter blackout window; even if they wanted to buy, most cannot. I doubt there would be much buying anyway at these levels as the news is gloomy, and there is clearly a draught in animal spirits.  The other reason is that I ran out of time. I went to San Diego for the weekend to attend the Miramar Air Show, the largest military airshow in the country.  My business excuse was to observe the Valkyrie stealthy drone firsthand … Read more

The Beauty Health Co

Insider Buying -Interest rates may have peaked but the damage to earnings is just beginning

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Market gains are muted, and traders are quick to snatch profits.  Rallies are reversed almost daily as market direction is indecisive.  By many measures, bargains in the stock market are hard to come by.  The earnings yield of the S&P 500 is 3.98%, and the P.E. is historically on the low side.  Earnings surprises are met with a sell-the-news trading mentality.  The economy is showing signs of stalling, yet the Fed has made it clear, that if rate hikes are near the end of the cycle, high-interest rates will be here for quite a while.  10% car loans and 7.3% … Read more

Notes from Enercom Denver August 2023- No Dessert at Lunch this Year

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Last August, I wrote thoughts on Denver Enercom 2022 Let The Good Times Roll.  Enercom is the annual oil and gas conference in Denver in August that brings together hydrocarbon energy producers and investors, analysts, vendors, suppliers, and groups generally economically tied to the industry.  The conference is free for me to attend, as I imagine it is for most. The people that pay get up on the stage and have something to say. I’ve been going to it for years, but this might be the last.  The companies presented are fewer, smaller, and more speculative. Attendance has always had … Read more

Insider Buying Week 8-11-23 and the Summer Doldrums

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We are not surprised by the momentum of the oil and gas sector, as it was only a matter of time before its strong fundamentals collided with short sellers and skeptical money managers. We wrote last week about the strong signals from Exxon’s latest quarterly earnings. Activist Exxon board member Jerry Ubben’s purchase of Exxon may have been the biggest act of his illustrious career.  CEO Darren Woods is transforming  Exxon into a juggernaut of earnings  AND the undisputed heavyweight of both hydrocarbons, renewables, and carbon capture. Its stands to dominate all.  According to Woods, there is no reason for … Read more

Insider Buying Week 8-04-23 Hydrocarbons Make the Modern World Modern

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Oil and gas have been the best-performing sector in the market for the last couple of weeks. There is much talk about an oil surplus, and economic weakness in China, the world’s largest petroleum consumer.  Analysts are often too deep in the woods to see the trees.  It is true that Opec et al. Russia fiddle with the supply of oil in an attempt to manipulate the price, but it is equally true that every industrialized economy attempts to influence the price, supply, and consumption of the world’s most important commodity. For example, The U.S. sold off its Strategic Petroleum … Read more