The Insider Report

Iran, Nuclear Policy, and America: An Investment Opportunity In Disaster?

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  We have a delicate balancing act at hand between the threat of an emerging nuclear power, our rapacious thirst for oil, and responsible diplomatic policy.  The consternation in the air is palpable, bringing to mind Buffet’s famous words “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”.  So how does one put such words of wisdom into an actionable trade idea?  Since going long nuclear fallout seems short sighted, let’s look at how to take advantage of a potential event driven jump in the price of oil once we fully grasp the situation at hand. At … Read more

Is Natural Gas a Buy?

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Since mid 2008 natural gas has been completely decimated by the market with the past eight months have been particularly bearish, cutting natural gas stocks in half.  Take a look at UNG for instance, down close to 60% from it’s June high of 12.32 a share.  So with natural gas bouncing off it’s all time low is it time to take a bullish stance on the commodity?  Recent options activity has spiked dramatically, with a call to put ratio of more than six to one.  With options activity a good forward looking indicator of investor sentiment, this is generally a very bullish … Read more

More than a coffee shop? Starbucks to offer beer, wine in select locations

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In the search for increasing profits a number of fast food restaurants venturing away from their tried and true business models and testing the uncharted waters of breakfast; Subway, Wendy’s Co. and YUM brand’s Taco Bell are just a few.  In a similar venture at a select few locations, Starbucks is looking to add alcoholic beverages and a larger menu to match which would include light, appetizer style fare.  If successful, the coffee chain could be looking at a large increase in sales with little additional overhead costs.  Considering the frequency locations are used to conduct business, the addition of … Read more

The Ban on Iran: Tehran continues with threats

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As promised, the European Union followed through with their promise to ban all oil imports from Iran today in an effort to halt the country’s nuclear development program.  The halt on oil was accompanied by a number of other provisions including sanctions on trading with their central bank.  Just days after the US, French, and British militaries sent a flotilla of warships through the gulf, the combined effect of the ban and military actions are sure to add pressure to our already tense relationship with Iran who reiterated their threat of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz.  Markets responded … Read more

Google vs. Apple

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As I sit here typing out this post on my MacBook, occasionally running a question by Siri on my iPhone just for the heck of it, I can’t help but notice I’ve been blindsided by the Apple lifestyle… and I don’t seem to mind a bit.  An iPod sits in my car, next to the two iPod shuffles that I take on the mountain when I ride, and I’m long Apple stock.  My old HTC Incredible smartphone sits in a box, long forgotten.  And I’m certainly not the only one to completely buy into the way of life that Steve … Read more

‘s Roundtable

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The first thing I look at when I read Barron’s round table is the results of the panelists picks from last year.  On that accord, one would do well by skipping most of it.  There are though, two investment gurus, Bill Gross and Felix Zulauf that tend to make me money. None the less read the whole article and make up your own mind..  It can be found here. Gross: Next, in a world of financial repression where 10-year Treasury bonds yield 2% and 30-years, 3%, certain state bonds and utilities yielding 5% and 6% are decent relative values. It … Read more

Shocking fact about Iran oil embargo consequences

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Without question, if I knew that a disruption of oil supplies from Iran would occur, I’d bet the farm on a dramatic rise in crude oil prices.  But how rationale is this popular consensus opinion?  I quote from Daniel Yergins, The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of  the Modern World. “Currently, IEA nations have about 1.5 billion barrels of public stocks, of which about 700 million barrels are in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Were Iranian exports to disappear from the market, the 1.5 billion could compensate for the shortfall for more than two years.” So rationale expectations and … Read more

Paypal: online powerhouse is stepping up in-store payments

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Shares of Paypal’s parent company Ebay are up toward the end of todays session on the news that Paypal is expanding their in-store payment network to include 2,000 more stores.  A spokesman for the online payment service said that a trial run in 50 Home Depot locations is currently under way in the San Francisco area, with the goal of increasing Paypal’s future avenues for income.  While little profit is initially expected, it does provide some diversification to their income stream and challenges transaction companies like Visa and Mastercard on yet another front.   More info can be found via … Read more

Marc Faber Resumes Bloodfeud With Treasurys, Still Sees Entire Financial System Imploding

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From Zerohedge: “In an interview with Bloomberg’s Sara Eisen and Erik Schatzker this morning, he does what he does best – cuts to the chase: “if you think it through and you are as bearish as I am, and you think the whole financial system will one day collapse, we don’t know if in 3 years, or 5 years, or 10 years, but one day there will be a reset, and everything will be essentially started anew, then you are better off in equities than in government bonds, because a lot of government bonds will either default or they will … Read more

Buying Gold On More QE

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From Seeking Alpha: Gold bears point to simple fact that investors cannot value gold in a similar fashion to stocks and bonds. Gold earn and yields nothing. As Jim Grant has stated, gold holds no quarterly conference call. Unlike other precious metals, gold has limited industrial use. Gold bulls point to the monetary base as confirmation gold is not in bubble. The chart below the U.S. monetary base, the price of gold and the U.S. consumer price index. As the chart shows, gold prices and the consumer price index have responded to historical growth in growth of the monetary base. … Read more

Einhorn Ends 2011 Just Over +2%, Closes FSLR Short, Warns On Asia, Mocks “Lather. Rinse. Repeat” Broken Markets

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Anyone wondering why FSLR just jumped, it is because as was just made known, David Einhorn’s Greenlight has decided to close its FSLR position, after bleeding that particular corpse dry. “Our largest winner by far was our short of First Solar (FSLR) which fell from $130.14 to $33.76 paper share and was the worst performing stock in the S&P 500.” Einhorn also announces that he was among the “evil” hedge funds who dared to provide market clearing transparency and buy CDS on insolvent European governments: “We also did well investing in various credit default swaps on European sovereign debt.” As … Read more

Yahoo Shares Rise as Co-Founder Jerry Yang Resigns (YHOO)

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  Shares of Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO), the online media company, are gaining in early trading today after the Sunnyvale, California-based company said that its co-founder, Jerry Yang, has resigned. Yang co-founded Yahoo in 1995. His departure has pleased shareholders, who were upset with him for obstructing deals which could have transformed the struggling company. Yang’s resignation comes two weeks after Yahoo announced the appointment of Scott Thompson as its new CEO. Analysts believe that Yang’s departure from Yahoo clears the way for a major infusion from private equity firms or a deal to sell a major portion of the … Read more

Euro and stocks volatile on talk of IMF fundraising – FT.com

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Trading Post. Is eurozone headline risk becoming asymmetric? It’s an ugly piece of jargon but in recent days it is the question some in the market have been posing. It refers to the view that traders may be reacting positively to news deemed “eurozone supportive” but quickly putting “eurozone negative” factors behind them. In market terms, it means many of the bad scenarios – Greek default, French downgrade – may have been discounted, at least partly. Or, more simply still, it means “crisis fatigue”. If true – and it’s a big if – this has implications for the broad financial … Read more

Facebook Integration May Be Coming To iOS 5

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With the integration of Twitter into iOS 5 and so much cash sitting on Apple’s balance sheet, many investors are left wondering when rather than if Apple will make the move to purchase the social media stream.  So how will this new proposed partnership translate into an increase in value?  Well, a step toward being more open source friendly is a start..   After finally bringing Twitter to iOS 5, it looks like Apple is considering integrating other social networks as well. This weekend, iMore discovered references to Facebook integration in the latest developer beta of iOS 5. They also … Read more

France Said to Seek Faster Start to EU Iran Oil Embargo

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Oil markets see a bit of a boost from France’s push toward cutting the grace period before implementing a ban on Iranian crude in half, breaking a 4 day loosing streak. Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) — France is pushing for faster enforcement of the European Union’s proposed ban on oil imports from Iran, two officials with knowledge of the matter said. France wants the embargo to be delayed by no more than three months to allow nations including Greece, Italy and Spain to find alternative supplies, according to a French government official, who declined to be identified, citing state rules. While … Read more

Dow Jones Credit Suisse Core Index Performance December 2011

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he Dow Jones Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Indexes Performance data for Dec 2011 has been updated. Please visit our site at http://www.hedgeindex.com for further details.     Dow Jones Credit Suisse Core Index Performance Index / Sub Strategies Value** Dec 11 YTD 1 Year Annl* Std Dev* Sharpe* Dow Jones Credit Suisse Core Hedge Fund Index 92.60 -0.41% -7.40% -7.40% 6.22% 6.75% 0.65     Convertible Arbitrage 92.34 1.29% -7.66% -7.66% 3.04% 11.44% 0.11     Emerging Markets 97.60 0.16% -2.40% -2.40% 9.38% 10.76% 0.70     Event Driven 87.47 -0.95% -12.53% -12.53% 4.40% 8.28% 0.31     Fixed Income Arbitrage 98.74 -0.40% -1.26% -1.26% 7.33% … Read more

Your Reading, Watching, And Cooking Habits Will Start Showing Up On Facebook This Wednesday

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Secretly enjoy a good cry to a romantic comedy?  Well , you’re about to know a lot more than you wanted to about the personal habits of your ‘friends’.. Think this could be a nice avenue for exposure for companies like Netflix?  Other than the benefit of name recognition, the intrusive nature will very possibly be a negative attribute.. In September, Facebook announced a variety of partners for its new Open Graph platform like Netflix, Nike+ Plus, Spotify, and others. These Open Graph apps will pop updates into your live News Ticker like “Ellis Hamburger ran 2.8 miles using Nike+” … Read more

Euro Woes Could Revive Bout of Market Volatility – NYTimes.com

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Euro Woes Could Revive Bout of Market Volatility Alex Domanski/Reuters By NELSON D. SCHWARTZ Investors are bracing for a return to volatility when markets in the United States reopen on Tuesday as renewed gloom about the debt crisis in Europe threatens to end the calm that has prevailed on Wall Street in recent weeks. Traders at the bourse in Madrid. American markets will be affected by earnings news as large companies report results. “We’ve had a lull, but I expect the pressure to start growing again with a renewed round of financial market agitation,” said Charles Wyplosz, a professor of … Read more

” To Consider – Seeking Alpha

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7 ‘Diamonds In The Rough’ To Consider A few ideas to mull over during your snowless weekend..  If only you could short squeeze La Nina out of the picture.     Contrarian investors, like David Dreman, tend to focus on stocks that are against the crowd. These are the stocks that a lot of people are not buying, the underdogs. But, investing is not a popularity contest. Sometimes, just the momentum of trading (or lack thereof) can push a stock’s price lower, leaving more upside for the “contrarian” investor. Here is a list of 7 “diamonds in the rough” to … Read more

Six Reasons to Avoid Japan In 2012

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Guest post: Ron Rowland One of the best ways to make money in ETFs is to not lose money.  I know it sounds obvious, but I can assure you that many people don’t get this key point.  So if I can help you do that, then I count it as a success.  And today I’ll talk about an ETF category I think you should avoid in 2012: Japan. What’s Wrong with Japan? I’ve been to Japan many times.  I love the country and the people.  Yet I have to tell you that now is not the time to invest in … Read more

| Reuters

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Goldman sees 2012 upside in oil, gold, copper Fri Jan 13, 2012 5:07pm IST REUTERS – Goldman Sachs said it expected upside in prices of oil, gold and copper this year, citing greater supply risks and stronger fundamentals. “We view gold and copper as providing the best value opportunities relative to our view of fundamentals in 2012,” the investment bank said on Friday, citing remaining risks of substantial supply shortfalls. via Goldman sees 2012 upside in oil, gold, copper | Reuters.

Trade ideas for week 2 of the Mayan calendar year 2012

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  We don’t often open the whole kimono so enjoy:  These are our major positions in order of descending market weight. SLB is showing bullish divergence and with significant insider buying, we like it.  Also there is a possibility of extended rise in crude oil prices due to Iranian oil boycott political issues. AAPL short-term overbought and we have no idea where it’s headed now although its cheap by any metric HES  don’t like the chart although we like the stock K we nailed this one and still like it GLD contrary to Kyle Bass, we like the ETF over … Read more

Options Players Wager On Recovery For Urban Outfitters

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  Outfitters, Inc. – Options activity on the specialty retailer jumped on Wednesday morning as news of the CEO’s resignation saw shares in Urban Outfitters tumble more than 20% to an intraday low of $23.42. Still feeling bullish on Urban?  Take a look at the Feb12 25 calls.  Although I generally prefer to be a writer rather than a buyer of options, URBN’s decrease of almost 19% saw a 75% reduction in the February 25 calls from $3.30 down to $.80      via Options Players Wager On Recovery For Urban Outfitters, Gains For Textron – Forbes.

| ZeroHedge

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Anti-Tilson ETF Basket Leads The Way Early In 2012 So why are investors willing to pay the industry standard 2 and 20 to underperform when they can show hedge fund like returns with zero management fees?  That, is a good question…     The most popular talking-head on financial TV (after Bill Miller and Byron Wien), Whitney Tilson, has not had a winning year so far. In fact the simple pair trade Anti-Tilson (Long GMCR-Short Netflix which we closed when it returned 50% in just over a month), that was so popular last year, has been expanded to include his … Read more

‘s 2011 Hedge Fund Performance

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John Paulson’s 2011 Hedge Fund Performance   Despite a rather disastrous mess of 2011, Paulson has managed to keep redemptions down to just 8%..  An impressive achievement nonetheless, but is it due to belief in the strategy or belief in the brand?  Either way, his performance is a good illustration of how timing can cause even the soundest convictions to run awry.  Don’t forget the importance of a solid hedge when dealing with a timely trade..   The numbers are in for John Paulson’s Paulson & Co. The hedge fund finished 2011 with depressingly low returns reports the New York … Read more

Index Funds, Where Are We Now?

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Index Funds, Where Are We Now?   While following important economic news as it continually streams through headlines, its akin to wrapping your mouth around a fire hose to quench your thirst; however it’s essential to consider how these developments are affecting your investments. Take a look at how a couple of major indexes and index funds have performed since the beginning of the year…   PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE:UUP) -1.53% U.S. Equity: SPDRS S&P 500 Index (NYSE:SPY) -1.22% Technology: PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq:QQQ) 0.94% Europe, Australia-Asia iShares MSCI EAFE Index (NYSE:EFA) -15.77% Energy: United States Oil (NYSE:USO) -1.82% Precious Metals: iShares Comex Gold Trust (NYSE:IAU) +9.57% Fixed Income: iShares Barclays … Read more

Healthy, Low-Calorie and Diet-Friendly Fast Food Choices

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The 22 Healthiest Fast Foods What to Order at America’s Top 10 Fast Food Joints — By Liza Barnes, Health Educator The trade down diet is in full swing in America.  Out with the fancy dining experience and in with the survival feed a family of four with some modicum of health.  Each one of these chains should be analyzed for money making opportunties. via Healthy, Low-Calorie and Diet-Friendly Fast Food Choices.

JP Morgan Global Biotech Outlook

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2012 Global Biotech Outlook Company Profiles from Our Global Biotech Universe – What to Expect in 2012 Published at the beginning of each year, our Global Biotech Outlook highlights industry-specific trends that we think are relevant for the coming year as well as our favorite biotech names from the Meacham, Kasimov and Vosser/Gordon franchises.Click here for the complete report.

Top 20 Best Performing Stocks of 2011 – Stock Trading To Go

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Top 20 Best Performing Stocks of 2011   A recap of the top performers of 2011   VRUS, YTD Return +467.49% SIMO, YTD Return +380.24 INHX, YTD Return +309.62 COOL, YTD Return +233.77% GLNG, YTD Return +201.45% MDVN, YTD Return +199.87% QCOR, YTD Return +182.62% PZZI, YTD Return +178.97% LQDT, YTD Return +160.57 PKT, YTD Return +156.94% MDW, YTD Return +145.24% PCYC, YTD Return +144.57% ARIA, YTD Return +140.20% SCSS, YTD Return +132.20% CRIS, YTD Return +130.30% ONTY, YTD Return +129.14% ELN, YTD Return + 128.97% HSTM, YTD Return +127.99% CONN, YTD Return +126.50% SNSS, YTD Return +125.00% via Top … Read more

Undervalued Stocks Trading At Lows That Are Being Accumulated By Insiders – Seeking Alpha

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Undervalued Stocks Trading At Lows That Are Being Accumulated By Insiders includes: CIM, FNFG, NLY, NVAX, TQNT Everyone loves a deal, so here are five beaten down stocks that are showing positive signs based on insider action.   The current volatility in the market has left many promising stocks trading near their lows. We mined through the over 6,000 insider transactions filed on SEC Forms 3, 4, and 5 by insiders in the month of December, and crossed them with stocks currently trading at their lows, many at valuations much cheaper than their peers, to identify the following candidates. These … Read more