The Insider Report

Not much on the investment horizon except the Fed tapering.  Twitter’s IPO although certain to be a headline stealer won’t happen for weeks.  Syria is on the back burner.  It’s a few days early for 3rd quarter warnings.   By RANDALL W. FORSYTH “Lord, make me chaste — but not yet,” St. Augustine famously prayed. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and some of his colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee may be invoking analogous words when they gather next week to consider what to do about its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program after the “disappointing” August employment numbers reported Friday. … Read more

Smart money is betting on the Fed tapering to be announced at next week’s FOMC meeting.  Analysts believe the improvement in the labor market has met the Fed’s criteria to begin trimming its buybacks.  I believe they are likely to be very careful tampering with MBS as long-term rates for housing have already risen from 3 5/8 % to 4 7/8% in just a few months since they first mentioned tapering.  I am sure they are concerned that rising rates will be a drag on the housing recovery.  Meanwhile inflation remains soft and Bernanke would like to be able to leave … Read more

Chansoo Joung a two year  board member of Apache stepped up and bought 10,000 shares at $86. on 9-3-13.  That’s a striking buy not just for the size but for the timing.  Apache announced a surprise deal with the Chinese government owned Sinopec on 8-29 causing the stock to rally 9% the following day.  Undoubtedly Mr. Joung was aware of the deal and was restricted from buying prior to the announcement.  This large purchase is significant because he bought after a strong run-up and considering Mr. Joung’s background, he might have been instrumental in bringing the Chinese on board giving … Read more

Monday September 2nd Markets closed for Labor Day.  That didn’t stop the futures from closing Monday morning up 16.25 S&P points, 112 Dow points.  Chinese PMI numbers but mostly Syrian attack delay all contributed to the rally.  The week’s news headlines are likely to be consumed with the Congressional debate on whether the U.S should embark on some military action against the Syrian regime as punishment for their use of chemical weapons.  Since nothing will apparently be decided until the following week as Harry Reed said he would put up to vote the week of September 9th. The markets will … Read more

Ironic we predicted this in a blog post back in May. saxangle.com/the-very-cryptic-thing-apache-oil-ceo-said-at-bernstein-conference-today/ Besides this being the validation Apache needed for its Egyptian assets, it’s a real statement on geopolitics.   The Chinese apparently were talking to Apache about investing in Egypt for quite some time.  After all they are notorious as a nation for being slow and deliberate.  It was only when the military threw out the “democratically” elected Muslim Brotherhood candidate that the Chinese pulled the trigger on the deal.  They are after all more comfortable dealing with a military dictatorship than a democratically elected president.  That’s what the … Read more

U.S. single-family home prices rose in June, though the pace of gains slowed slightly, a closely watched survey showed on Tuesday. The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas rose 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis. Prices rose 1 percent in May. On a nonadjusted basis, prices rose 2.2 percent. Compared to a year earlier, prices were up 12.1 percent, in line with economists’ expectations. Prices were up 12.2 percent in the year to May, the biggest gain in more than seven years. Robert Shiller, Case-Shiller Index co-founder, breaks down the latest numbers on housing, with the “Squawk … Read more

Not sure if it was the Kerry press conference or the sobering headline about the debt shenanigans that caused the market sell off.  I wish there was a way to play volatility increasing that actually works because we are going to get more of it as September unfolds. By DAMIAN PALETTA CONNECT WASHINGTON—The Treasury Department said it would hit its borrowing limit in mid-October and be unable to pay all of its bills soon after that time, narrowing the window the White House and Congress have to maneuver on budget talks. The deadline, which is sooner than many on Capitol … Read more

We pivoted Friday, playing off the weak new home sales data, into more interest rate sensitive names.  Blue chip dividend paying stocks, MLPs, bonds in general, utilities, telcos, and tobaccos have all been relative weak players during the last few weeks as the market comes to terms with Bernanke’ and the Fed’s tapering.  Markets will get increasingly nervous about U.S. budget debates in Congress when Congress returns in September.  When next September Congress returns, refreshed, all Hell will (appear to) break loose according to this Forbes article.  There are only 9 legislative days in September, with the end of the fiscal … Read more

We’ve greatly reduced our exposure to the market.  When in doubt go to cash and regroup.  Normally I’m a buyer on pullbacks but this hasn’t been much of a pullback and sentiment seems to be changing a bit.  There has been much news coverage of Egypt which has little economic impact for the markets as a whole but big impact for Apache’s revenue as 20% comes from oil and gas in Egypt.  Little has been made of Iraq which is  the 2nd largest oil exporter in the Mid East.  Things look like they are unraveling there. The country has been hit … Read more

Last week’s 2.25% drop in the Dow was hardly a bad week by any standards. Yet it was the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s  worst week this year, with investors ditching stocks as longer-term Treasury yields rose to two-year highs.  That’s just a testament to how bullish this market has been.  Things did seem to change last week, though.   The warning signs were certainly there. The market was technically over bought.  Profit taking was almost inevitable as investors were  near unanimously bullish which is just another way of stating that everyone is all-in. While it was a poor week for … Read more

We know that a bunch of our readers spend a lot of time in front of their monitors trading the markets. Its basically their second home, so they have to tailor to their needs and strategy.Thats why wed like you to send us photos of your trading desk set up.  We also want you to tell us what makes your desk so awesome. And no worries, well keep you anonymous if you wish. Were just curious. via Pictures Of The Best Trading Desks – Business Insider.   Click here to see our very own trading desk.       4 30 ” … Read more

Iraq will not become another Syria, says government, as car bombs kill 34.  While all the headlines in Western media are about Egypt, and the oil markets fear a glut of WTI, the price is relentlessly creeping higher.  Exxon said they wanted to sell some of their Iraq oil concession to the Chinese.  Can you blame them?  Iraq looks less stable than Egypt. The ports in Libya are  shut.  Iran is on pace to develop a nuclear weapon and Israel has made it clear that they won’t tolerate that.  We better be finding lots of oil in the U.S because … Read more

  “Get long and get loud,” or “Go short and get shrill.” These tactics of taking a position in a stock, then spreading the word to persuade others to follow along, is as old as the markets themselves. Yet this year the jawboning of stocks seems to be happening more often, more publicly, and by bigger-name investors. And it’s no wonder: The world appears to be listening, and acting on the utterances of the do-as-I’ve-done big-money crowd. When pioneering activist investor and hedge-fund manager Carl Icahn Tuesday disclosed a “large” new position in Apple Inc. (AAPL) shares, the stock added … Read more

Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index Performance Index / Sub Strategies Value** Jul 13 YTD 1 Year Annl* Std Dev* Sharpe* Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index 507.05 0.88% 4.59% 8.65% 8.64% 7.38% 0.77     Convertible Arbitrage 409.77 -0.08% 3.73% 6.53% 7.47% 6.75% 0.67     Dedicated Short Bias 35.31 -5.74% -17.38% -26.50% -5.18% 16.71% -0.49     Emerging Markets 406.32 -0.09% 3.12% 10.40% 7.42% 14.50% 0.31     Equity Market Neutral 256.91 2.02% 4.81% 7.59% 4.94% 10.05% 0.20     Event Driven 585.97 1.51% 8.64% 15.34% 9.45% 6.21% 1.05       Distressed 706.01 1.31% 9.39% 15.93% 10.50% 6.48% 1.17       Multi-Strategy 534.49 1.61% 8.32% 15.13% 8.94% … Read more

A bit distracted today by the events in Egypt.  Trying to assess how it impacts Apache.  Don’t think anyone knows but the stock was sharply lower.  Pulte also continued its descent but not much different than the homebuilders today.  Fortunately we had a good trade in Apple which we sold around the $500 mark and a nice run-up in PAY, Verifone which we are still long.  Unfortunate small trade in Cisco but I think the market is over-reacting and expect the stock to bounce back or wait for Carl Icahn or somebody to say its cheap. TransMontaigne Partners, LP, controlled … Read more

Goldman sees ‘creative destruction’ in these businesses 3D printing could literally break the mold; a growing new asset class threatens the reinsurance industry, and E-cigarettes aren’t just blowing smoke at tobacco titans. These are among eight industry themes that Goldman Sachs analysts described as “creative destruction” – trends that are big and disruptive enough to reshape industries and draw in an increasing number of via Goldman sees ‘creative destruction’ in these businesses.

Some people get rich studying artificial intelligence. Me, I make money studying natural stupidity.

PVA Penn Virginia mostly in Eagleford transitioning away from gas to oil bought out MHR in Eagleford break even price 50-65 per barrel oil, mostly in Eagleford.  Doesn’t.t understand why their stock is so cheap.  Calls it the cheapest stock in the group.  I’ve heard this more than once from a presenting CEO Petrobras is a communist company.  They are a very large player by every standard but can you make money with a company run for the state?  I don’t think so. Anadarko APC hosted lunch.  Brilliant presentation. Click here for it. What a great company.  How come there … Read more

Monday August 12th. I am at Enercom, a well attended conference for the Oil and Gas Industry.  There are about 600 attendees spanning the gamut of the sell side, the buy side, and vendors supplying the industry. The entire conference is webcast at http://enercominc.com/the-oil-and-gas-conference/webcasts/.  You won’t get the giant luncheon presentations by Royal Dutch Shell and Anadarko, nor the club party at the Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego baseball game, but you will get a feel for what the CEO’s and CFOs of the nearly 120 companies presenting there are saying. So far not much has changed since I attended Enercom last … Read more

Last week was uneventful.  The market closed slightly lower for the week.  All of the trading opportunities were from earnings surprises.And there were some great ones there, with Groupon rocketing 25% and Priceline up $50 at one point. This week’s calendar heats up later in the week with economic news.  Earnings season is winding down. The week will start off slow but volume should pick up with a slew of economic indicators Thursday capped off by Friday’s option expiration.   Monday August 12th US. Monthly budget balance statement.  The delta of the U.S. budget deficit has been declining.  I don’t … Read more

I’ve added something unusual this week at my attempt a crystal ball reading, most notably JP Morgan action calendar It’s quite extensive 65 pages.  Since all of my 1000 plus trades a quarter clear through them, I’m hoping they don’t mind. Monday August 5th– not much on the economic calendar but investors will be watching some European data to see if the bull market has a new engine. The Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index composite and a variety of country readings will hog the headlights.  Pretty much a non-event in my forecast. Tuesday August 6th-  I can’t even find anything to write … Read more

According to JP Morgan homebuilding and building products analyst, Michael Rehaut, overall, inventory on average is down 13% YOY and 55% from peak levels.  Pulte Homes is one of the nation’s largest home builders offers various home designs, including single-family detached, townhouses, condominiums, and duplexes under the Pulte Homes, Del Webb, and Centex names.  As of June 30, 2013, they conducted  operations in approximately 50 markets located throughout 28 states When interest rates spiked in May, the homebuilders were sold off with the expectation that higher rates would curb home buyers. Pulte sold off  25% from a high of $24 to $18.  It rebounded … Read more

On January 23, a new Reuters article stated that Pamplona Capital has disclosed an 8.8% stake in Nabors Industries and that it is having discussions with the company. This could be another sign of major undervaluation and if Pamplona Capital becomes an activist investor that pushes management to create shareholder value, this could help boost the share price. Two insider buys were announced today.  Newly appointed director Kotts bought 120,000 shares of NBR at $14.95.  Director Wolf bought 11,000 at $14.90 and a additional 7000 at $14.78.  While potential risks remain, such as possible low demand for natural gas drilling, another recession, … Read more

With the market at new highs and the end of the month nigh, money managers will have itchy trigger fingers.  And the market will give them lots of things to shoot at including: Monday USA Pending home sales up slightly HIT Tuesday Case-Shiller Home Price Index.   A sharp rise in home prices might stoke further Fed fears of inflation since they are meeting the day the indicator comes out.  Consumer confidence survey comes out same day and its already at a high level.  Further rise will do much to confirm tapering is on for September. Wednesday Euro-Zone Consumer Price … Read more

Verifone Systems (PAY) is a company in flux and one I am struggling with as to whether we want to endure the pain of short-term underperformance to benefit long-term from the big upgrade cycle. Verifone is the leading point of sale terminal solution that enables secure electronic payments like credit cards.  Next time you are at the check out aisle look at the card swipe machine.  Verifone most likely makes it. This leading global provider of payment solutions has fallen on hard times.  Verifone (PAY) was incorporated in 1981, introduced the first check verification and credit authorization terminals in 1984, … Read more

We are long MO and LO.  Altria launches their much anticipated e cigarette August 1 on a limited roll out.  I expect cigarette usage to radically change.  E cigarettes are what the car was to horse and buggy.   The New Tobacco Shop is Here: E-Cigarette Store Opens in ManhattanArticleCommentsMETROPOLIS HOME PAGE »smallerLargerfacebooktwittergoogle pluslinked inEmailPrintKeith Bedford for the Wall Street JournalSpike Babaian, the co-owner of VapeNY, a Lower East Side Shop that only sells e-cigarettes.By Zara StoneIt’s the modern-day version of a tobacco shop.Electronic cigarettes have become such a booming business — there’s now dozens of brands to choose from … Read more

10 Best Growth-Stock ETFs for 2013Top-Rated ETFs Growth is hot.  It’s outperforming value.  These ETFS are a good way to play it   Top Domestic Growth ETFs as of 6/30/13 Fund Name Get Info Overall Rating Risk Grade SPDR S&P Software & Services ETF XSW A+ B+ First Trust Small Cap Val AlphaDEX FYT A+ B First Trust Mid Cap Val AlphaDEX FNK A+ B PowerShares Fundamental Pure Lg Val PXLV A+ B PowerShares S&P SC Cnsmr Staples PSCC A+ B Madrona Domestic ETF FWDD A+ B Consumer Discretionary Sel Sec SPDR XLY A+ B PowerShares KBW Prop & Casualty … Read more