If you knew your stock was going down tomorrow would you sell it today?

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Everyday before the market opens, I put a plus sign, minus sign or zero sign in front of every stock symbol I own.  The plus sign signifies that I think the stock goes up today, the minus is down, and the zero sign is I don’t have a clue.  I keep these sheets for several days comparing my predictions to the actual results.  The cost of transactions is so miniscule that if I have a high confidence level that a stock is going down, I have to ask myself can I own this stock cheaper tomorrow.  If so, why do … Read more

One piece of news trumps charts

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Some chartists believe that all known events are already reflected in the price patterns in the chart. They spend a lot of time trying to divine MA crossovers, MACD, Stochastics, Resistance Support lines and many more technical indicators. I too believe strongly in technical analysis but of course equally strongly that one piece of news trumps charts. This chart of Dolby is a a perfect example of this. The company looked like it was poised for a bounce. It was oversold, the RSI was diverging clearly heading in a positive direction while the price action was settling out. Then came … Read more

The technical edge – Gold is making a turn, the counter trend

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Gold is in a downtrend. If you look at the chart you will see the double top with multiple red divergence paints showing before it rolled over. Now it’s flashing divergence in the trend and set for a rebound. The news in Egypt should put a temporary psychological kick in the price too. Longer term the events in Egypt could be remarkably bullish for emerging markets. A friendly Arab democracy would be quite wonderful along the lines of the falling of the Berlin Wall. Who’s going to pick up that tab though? The Chinese?

SODA what a pop!

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This is a repeat of a prior post. I only wish I had listened to my own advice as we made so much money on this trade we didn’t keep enough of a tail. We have a small but exciting position in an Israeli based company, SodaStream International, Inc. You basically buy their product and make your own sodas and carbonated water. It’s a classic razor and razor blade model. They recently targeted the underserved US market and had an IPO in November. The stock nearly doubled from its initial public offering price of 20 but has pulled back recently … Read more

Things look dicey

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We have a very high cash position right now, almost 50%.  Half of the securities we own are municipal bonds we blogged about earlier.  The rest is in Intel, AMSC, ARTC, and a new position, SHLM.  We could be all cash in seconds and net short.  Stay focused you should get  a buying opportunity soon.

Value or Growth?

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Everyone is fixated on finding the next Apple, but look at this stodgy department store, Dillard’s. The stock rose twenty fold in twenty three months.  Too bad I didn’t buy it. It’s been on my screen since $2.75.

True Religion Play

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True Religion Apparel is technically poised for a bounce. Anecdotal checks of inventory show little discounting which leads me to believe that XMAS season went well. The high-end consumer seems to have fared better than the lower-end demographics. Catalyst. The company will be presenting Wed at the Annual ICRX Change conference after the market closes on Wed. Could be a good bounce or more importantly a run-up into the conference in anticipation.

Our largest positions for the New Year – Visa

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Our largest position is Visa which is 16.41%.  This is an out-sized position and we will be reducing it soon one way or the other.  We all know who Visa is and we think it is pretty clear that cash transactions are on the way to becoming extinct and Visa is the prime beneficiary of this secular trend.   The reason though that we own Visa is that it recently dropped in price from 80 to 67- almost 16% in one sad day in December for Visa shareholders when Uncle Ben Bernanke announced that the Fed Reserve was suggesting that the … Read more

MBI hot hot ticket today

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Classic case of massive insider buying, doubting and mounting short position, legal wrangling with huge implications.   We loaded with  call options limiting our losses but taking the full upside for at least a while.  Apparently no one really knows the future earning potential of this company as well as the people running it who see to be wanting to own more stock in it.  Duh.  I’m a buyer and it seems they are able to split the good risk from the bad risks, incredulously. It just seem that if you have lots of money and friends in high places things work … Read more

Soda Sodastream 10 Bagger

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This is truly a disruptive company.  What I mean by that is that this Company, SODA, has the potential to destroy CocaCola and Pepsi’s business model.  I know that is a strong statment and I don’t own a lot of this stock yet but I am a big user of their product and I haven’t brought home a six pack or case of Coke or Pepsi in a month.  Trust me, I know my soda.  This is the best business model (low tech little risk of technological obsolescence, low capital investment) that I have ever seen.  The only risk is … Read more

I’m a big fan of Apple but I’m buying Dell

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Dell is cheap, insider buying, and the rumored possibility Michael Dell may take the company private although that makes no sense to me unless he is just fed up answering investor questions.    I think Dell is a cash cow and you can make more money with Dell over the next six months than Apple.  I personally run Windows on Apple computers and will not buy a Dell but if I had to buy a computer for an employee,much less 20,000 computers, I’d reconsider that.  What you like and what you can make money with are often two very different things.

We are playing a rather large amount of BAC options

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This is a trade we are watching closely.  We are also long BAC.  There is nothing we can add to the story, it’s too well documented.  There is a lot of insider buying at prices a little up for here and the news has been so bad, anything short of bad news could move this behemoth.  Slowly, though, this is like moving a battleship.

Muni bond debacle

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Muni bonds in the last three weeks have fallen out of bed. Normally I disdain these investments but we are nibbling at multiple Invesco Van Kampen funds yielding an amazing 8%. Symbols include VMO,VGM, VIM, VKI, and VCV. We expect to not only pick up the units dividend on 12-12, we expect to make some short term capital gains from these very depressed levels.  The long bond has fallen dramatically on prospects of economic improvement.  This may be the correct interpretation but we think the muni market has taken a disproportionate hit.  It’s of course not immune from rising rates but … Read more

The Euro Collapse or Evolution?

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It almost seems a certainty that a run on the bank is taking place.  This particular run is the wholesale repudiation of the sovereign debts of the PIGS, Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and Spain.  Where this ultimately ends seems to have a great significance.  Does it come back home to roost and result in interest rates rising dramatically in the U.S.?  That’s the big question, isn’t it?  There are only a few ways that this author can imagine.  Which scenario is most likely? Eurodollar continues to weaken as one after another country’s debt comes under attack.  If the EUCB continues to … Read more

Bank Stocks

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They looked oversold and we have been nibling at them making a little money, losing a little money. Yesterday as soon as the WSJ broke a story about the Fed allowing them to start offering dividends again, we jumped in with both feet. We especailly hit Bank of America hard on the option front loading up on the Jan 12.5 calls. They are up 40% today and we blasted away at JPM but have already closed the position out for a quick profit. We still hold AF and some BBT as there has been some insider buying at higher prices … Read more

About HSAX & CO., LLC

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HSAX & CO, LLC is an independent investment advisory firm based in Park City, UT.  Its managing member, Harvey Sax, has earned a national reputation for substantially outperforming the market in good times and bad.  He has served as Vice President and Senior Vice President at Bear Stearns, Inc, Paine Webber, D. Blech & Co., and Oppenheimer Co. In addition to his financial acumen, Sax is recognized as a pioneer in the technology field.  He is responsible for creating one of the first publicly traded Internet companies, HomeCom Communications, Inc., and is also credited for creating the first web presence for … Read more

"The insomniac hedge fund guy" is a moniker Harvey Sax, the portfolio manager for The Insiders Fund has used from time to time on email, blog , and social media posts. While Mr. Sax is the portfolio manager of The Insiders Fund, these posts are not communications from, nor endorsed by, Alpha Wealth Funds, LLC or any of its managed funds. References to Alpha Wealth Funds or its affiliates are for identification only and do not imply sponsorship or approval. All registered trademarks herein are the property of their respective owners.

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