Insomniac Hedge Fund Guy

Be Patient- wait for the opportunity

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One of the hardest lessons a trader learns is to do nothing at all.  Being able to sit still, watch the screen and resist the temptation of firing off a trade is too much for some people.  The Internet, the amazing drop in commissions, and the pulsating and riveting graphics of online trading programs have made it almost impossible to resist trading on impulse or inspiration.  Is it really that unlike the casino  with computer monitors replacing slot machines?   Many people learn this lesson the hard way.  It’s only when the account values drops to levels that are painfully … Read more

Top 6 Oil and Gas Drillers Paying Impressive Dividends

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In two of our recent articles, we looked for the top six oil & gas companies, and the top eight gas utilities paying excellent dividends. With oil and gas prices going even higher, we decided to screen for the best oil and gas drillers with quite impressive dividends, and a maximum P/E ratio of 30. All of the companies that follow offered a minimum 5% dividend yield, and have a minimum market capitalization of $300 million. Data is derived from finviz. While there are hundreds of drillers listed in NYSE, only the following large cap drillers fit this criteria: Crestwood … Read more

‘s the Hindenburg

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China is often admired as an economic miracle, especially since the government has been able to balance, thus far, a Communist/Socialist political infrastructure while operating a semi-capitalist “free” market. But as a side effect of a global economic slow down, and considering bits of information that filter out of an extremely well controlled society, China’s economic power is beginning to be questioned. The often mentioned Chinese “housing bubble” appears in the headlines from time to time, despite a lack of understanding of what exactly is taking place. In the United States and Europe, citizens understand what happened, and why the … Read more

‘s What Bonds Did The Last Time The Government Shut Down…

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With less than 10 hours left until the federal budget deadline and no deal in sight, a government shutdown now looks imminent. Federal agencies have already prepared to close up shop. But questions remain about what kind of impact it would have and how disruptive it will be to your life. American public. A shutdown might impact the trading volatility since it means the release of certain economic indicators would stop. However, the shutdown would NOT have any affect on tax collection, Treasury issuance, debt interest payments or existing social security beneficiaries. In the end, it is the White House … Read more

Contrarian indicator- newsletters who are bearish have fallen to 15.7%

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Based on data from Investors Intelligence (II), newsletter writers who are bearish on the US equity market have fallen to 15.7%, the lowest since December 2009 (15.6%) and below the level seen at the April 2010 highs (17.4%). II % Bears below 20% suggest that there are too few bears among advisory newsletter writers. As a measure of market sentiment, this has the potential to be contrarian bearish for the US equity market. Sentiment is not the best timing indicator, but after the sub-20% readings for II % Bears in December 2009 and April 2010, the S&P 500 pulled back from late January into early February 2010 (down 9%) and from late April into early July 2010 (down 17%). In addition, II % Bulls vs. II % Bears (see side bar) reached the highest level since June 2003, which preceded a sideways market going into September 2003.

 

 

Investors Intelligence % Bearish Advisors – weekly chart

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Slaughter the Dollar, Cry at the Pump

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The ongoing slaughter of the US dollar is sending everything that still has value, especially hard assets and commodities.  WTI Crude Oil just hit $111.25….1st time since 08….On a side note, China, Asia’s largest oil consumer, raised retail prices of gasoline and diesel for the second time this year, starting Thursday, as international crude oil prices continue rising, China Business News reported on Thursday. The benchmark retail price for gasoline will rise by RMB 500 a metric ton on April 7 and that for diesel will increase by RMB 400, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said on Wednesday. … Read more

Is Dish getting a Blockbuster deal?

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Activist investor Carl Icahn may have shown up in person at Blockbuster’s bankruptcy auction to place his bid, but it was U.S. satellite TV provider Dish Network that walked away the winner. Dish, led by satellite billionaire Charlie Ergen, won the assets of the once-mighty video rental chain for about $320 million, beating out Icahn and at least two other bidders in an auction that lasted into the early morning hours on Wednesday. NYSE Euronext will “absolutely not” be placing a counterbid for Nasdaq OMX, a source close to the Big Board told Reuters corresondent Paritosh Bansal in an exclusive interview. The … Read more

11,500 tons of radioactive water dumped into the Pacific…

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If you think that dumping 11,500 tons of radioactive water into the Pacific is nothing to be concerned about, look at the facial expression of the Tecpo official announcing the procedure: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=-W7uGvW8xvY#at=90 (starting at 27 seconds into video, and continuing to 1:00 minute in). Yes, I believe he’s crying. The footage and English translation are both courtesy of NHK TV’s English language addition.

MCHI: There Are Now 23 China ETFs

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 by Ron Rowland  

BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) yesterday (3/31/11) announced the listing of the iShares MSCI China Index Fund (MCHI).  The press release claims it is the first ETF to be benchmarked to the large cap and mid cap MSCI universe, providing exposure to the top 85% of Chinese equities by market cap.  However, MCHI becomes the twenty-third China ETF, and some of the existing ones provide similar or even broader coverage of the country.

The overview page does not currently contain any information, but according to the month old fact sheet (pdf), the fund is slated to have 141 holdings and an expense ratio of 0.61%.  The largest positions are China Mobile Ltd 8.6%, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China –H 7.1%, China Construction Bank –H 6.4%, CNOOC Ltd 6.1%, and Bank of China Ltd –H 5.0%.

Sector breakdown has Financials at 37.0%, Energy 18.4%, Telecom 11.4%, Industrials 8.0%, Technology 6.4%, Materials 6.1%, Consumer Discretionary 5.4%, Consumer Staples 4.7%, Utilities 1.8%, and Health Care 0.8%.

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Game Changer?…Better Place Opens FIRST Battery Swap Station in Israel

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This week, Better Place, the innovative electric car company, opened up their very first commercial battery swap station. The concept of swapping out depleted batteries for fresh charged ones is what distinguishes Better Place in the burgeoning EV market. You’ll never need to wait to charge your car—you just pull into one of the battery swap stations, robots switch out the batteries, and in three minutes you pull away. It’s really no different than a full service fill-up of 93 octane.

Say goodbye to range anxiety…..Just take a look at this video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lp_6VyIeSY&feature

Bronfer explains how it works:

The battery switch process itself is thoroughly unexciting, which must mean great praise for Better Place’s work in developing the concept. The driver only needs to flash his Better Place RFID card at the machine, drive into the rather narrow tunnel and find something to occupy himself with during the upcoming 3 minutes. The car slides into position, slightly lifted – then an underground robot grabs the battery, disappears – and returns with a fresh one. All of this is invisible to the technologically impaired driver, while the geekier amongst us can watch the entire process streamed live on a TV planted outside.

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Chart of the day: Why $4-Per-Gallon Gas Is Damn Cheap

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All of the European data comes from the E.U.’s European Energy Portal website. U.S. and Canadian data come from the respective Automobile Associations. From this recent chart in the Economist, you can see that the bulk of the premium costs in most European nations is due to higher taxes and duties on crude and gasoline. Many nations recognize oil as a finite resource, and are utilizing gasoline taxes to reduce oil imports, create a more efficient transportation system, and better prepare for longer-term oil price volatility.

HSBC Bombshell: Oil Will Run Out in 50 Years

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The senior global economist at the world’s second largest bank warned that the global oil supply might run out in under 50 years. “Energy resources are scarce,” wrote Karen Ward, HSBC’s senior global economist in a research report that was obtained by CNBC. “Even if demand doesn’t increase, there could be as little as 49 years of oil left.” Speaking on CNBC, she raised her estimate by a year.  “We’re confident that there are around 50 years of oil left…There’s possibly more out there, but the confident estimates are around 50 years.” Here’s Ward on CNBC: Peak oil theorists are … Read more

Oil Hysteria: The Resurrection of Peak Oil

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It would be great if I’m wrong but chances are we’ll see prices for crude hit $140 before we see $80 barrels again….After hovering around $103 a barrel for the past week, light, sweet crude had jumped to over $107 a barrel on the Nymex (and Brent over $117 a barrel).  Let’s take a step back and try to understand why this is happening……

The situation in Libya is looking like a shit-show. Pro-Gadhafi forces have pushed back rebel forces, in spite of the coalition-imposed no-fly zone.  Plus the reports of British Ops & the CIA tearing it up in Libya, doesn’t make matters any better.  And let’s not forget about the geopolitical unrest in Syria, Yemen and Bahrain.

The situation in Libya raises a broader, far more concerning set of questions. If it can happen in Libya, why not in Saudi Arabia, where the government is still essentially tribal in nature and will not be winning any prizes for their human rights record anytime soon. Women are still not allowed to drive. Take their 12 million barrels/day off the market, even for a few days, and the geopolitical implications are large, very large (despite the fact that the US imports only 2 million barrels a day from the mid east).Having said that, Canada is now our largest foreign supplier, followed by Mexico and Venezuela (I’ll save my opinions on Chavez for a later date). But oil is a globally traded commodity, and if you prick the supply line in one place we all have to pay. Remove Saudi Arabia from the picture, and the results could be catastrophic, for China first, but for ourselves as well.

While unlikely, if the US keeps demand relatively flat through the use of new alternatives (which there are a great deal of), new conservation efforts and a growing economy, China promises to eat up all of this increase. That my friends, is when the sushi hits the fan. I think oil could easily hit $300/barrel by 2020.

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Charlie Sheen Shorts Berkshire Hathaway. Proves you can still make a killing in the market while wasted.

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The Sax Angle created a hypothetical portfolio for Charlie Sheen.  Our extensive backtesting proves you can still get wasted and make a killing in the stock market.

Charlie Sheen’s stock portfolio produced enormous gains while his career floundered.   That’s the conclusion that the analysts at the SAX  ANGLE came to while building a hypothetical portfolio of Charlie Sheen’s stock holdings.  Based on public information, TV shows, and extensive web gossip, we concluded that Charlie Sheen should own or control significant stock in nine companies, some private and public.

1. Playboy Enterprises– PLA.A

Charlie Sheen should get involved in a group offering a rival bid to Hugh Hefner’s attempt to take Playboy (PLA) Enterprise private.  Once a sought out guest of the Playboy Mansion, Charlie should plan behind the scenes to throw out its namesake owner. Once his buyout group gets control of Playboy, we suggest that Charlie plan to move into the mansion and mummify Hef and display him wax figure like descending the entrance stairs.

2. Laboratory Holdings- LH

Sheen should work with the drug testing giant’s research lab to make drug tests anyone can pass.  Charlies should direct his agent to make a deal for him to be the spokesperson for the new “Easy Pass Come Clean Machine.”

3.  Betty Ford Clinic Buyout

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Chart of the day: Rolling 3-Month Correlation Between Oil & S&P500

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Over the past few years the correlation between oil (especialy WTI Crude Oil) and the S&P500 has been remarkably consistent with an average of about 0.75 (scale from -1 to 1).  However, over the past month that strong correlation that traders had become acustomed to has diminished at an exponential rate.  Over this past month, the rolling 3 month correlation (rolling windows give a much more accurate measure) has fallen to its lowest level since the early 2000s (less than 0.20). Basically, the Energy sector and oil have been moving less in tandem with each other on a day to day basis than they have in years.  Source: Bespoke Investment … Read more

Recently Discovered Video Interview with Seth Klarman

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For those who don’t know Seth Klarman, here’s some brief info from Jacob Wolinsky at Valuewalk:

Seth Klarman is undoubately one of the greatest investors of our time. Klarman manages Baupost Group, the 11th largest Hedge Fund in the US, with over $20 billion in assets.  There is a rumor that Buffett, (a big fan of Klarman) keeps a copy of Klarman’s out of print and super expensive book Margin of Safety, by his bed. Seth Klarman’s Baupost fund has produced returns of approximately 20% annually since inception in 1983. Klarman has produced phenomenal returns despite the fact that he usually holds huge amounts of cash.

According to a lecture given by Bruce Greenwald: Warren Buffett says that when he retires, there are three people he would like to manage his money. First is Seth Klarman of the Baupost Group, who you will hear from later in the course. Next is Greg Alexander. Third is Li Lu.

Below are the videos (6 in total), enjoy:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0aRiDI1wnk&feature=related&w=400&h=300]

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XOIL Tries to Be Spot-On Spot

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  Global X launched a new equity ETF on Tuesday (3/15/11) that attempts to achieve high correlation to crude oil spot prices. Global X Oil Equities ETF (XOIL) provides exposure to pure-play oil companies with significant oil reserves that are typically not involved in other industries such as natural gas or downstream operations.

The underlying Solactive Global Oil Equities Index tracks the performance of 25 equal-weighted companies that have shown a high correlation to the spot price of oil. Constituents are ranked and chosen by their correlation to the spot price of oil in the quarter preceding the selection day. The index has a global mandate, but only North American stocks passed the most recent correlation screen with 80% currently allocated to the U.S. and 20% to Canada.

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Weekend Reading Links

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The weekend is always a great time to catch up on some of the week’s reading you missed… Markets have gotten conditioned to central bankers flooding the market with money every time something goes wrong. [The Psy-Fi Blog] A profile of Jonathan Ive the “design genius” behind the rise of Apple. [I Heart Wall Street] Market bubbles and investor psychology.  [Vanguard Group] Buffett’s worst investment ever (and its not what you think) and7 other unusual things I learned about Warren Buffett. [The Altucher Confidential] Why are some cities happier than others?  [The Atlantic] Sirius is Clearning up its balance sheet. [Sirius Buzz] The frequency … Read more

"The insomniac hedge fund guy" is a moniker Harvey Sax, the portfolio manager for The Insiders Fund has used from time to time on email, blog , and social media posts. While Mr. Sax is the portfolio manager of The Insiders Fund, these posts are not communications from, nor endorsed by, Alpha Wealth Funds, LLC or any of its managed funds. References to Alpha Wealth Funds or its affiliates are for identification only and do not imply sponsorship or approval. All registered trademarks herein are the property of their respective owners.

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