Insomniac Hedge Fund Guy

Trading the markets can be a humbling experience- even for John Paulson

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Reuters – A humbled John Paulson told investors on Thursday he was “too aggressive” with some of the stock bets in his flagship funds and he is trimming back some of his riskiest holdings.The hedge fund manager told clients in a conference call that he was dialing back the risk by moving away from bank holdings with heavy mortgage exposure.The investor call came after a tumultuous first half of the year for Paulson, whose flagship Paulson Advantage fund lost about 12 percent. A related fund called Advantage Plus was off 18 percent. via Exclusive: Paulson says bets were too aggressive … Read more

USA Miners a Buy as Nations Tighten Grip on Resources

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USA Miners a Buy as Nations Tighten Grip on Resources     USA Miners a Buy as Nations Tighten Grip on Resources A new dynamic is developing in the flow of natural resources, countries from Indonesia and India to China and Russia are tightening their grip on natural resources as they limit exports to build up domestic industry in a trend that will spawn many challenges to World Trade Organization rules. However the move is not going to stop, this makes natural resource owners and miners in large consumption markets in the USA a strong buy. USA Industry will have … Read more

Euro Rises to Two-Week High as Bailout Terms for Greece May Ease

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By Catarina Saraiva and Allison Bennett July 21 (Bloomberg) — The euro advanced to the highest in two weeks against the dollar as officials said European governments may expand the region’s bailout fund and accept a temporary Greek default, reducing contagion concern. The dollar briefly pared its drop versus the yen on a New York Times report that President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner have reached a budget pact. The Canadian dollar rose to a three-year high versus the greenback and the Norwegian krone advanced as crude oil gained. The Swiss franc fell against most of its major … Read more

Money Managers Seek to Profit from Europe’s Woes

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Money Managers Seek to Profit from Europe’s Woes They’re buying downgraded bonds and betting on a slowdown Illustration by Oliver Munday When Moody’s Investors Service (MCO) downgraded Ireland’s sovereign debt to junk status on July 12, a week after giving Portugal’s debt similar treatment, it came as no surprise to Sandor Steverink. Europe’s best-performing government bond fund manager over the last decade, Steverink predicted both downgrades. Soon it will be time to buy, he says. “What we’ve learned from emerging markets is that you get only a full recovery after a proper restructuring,” says Steverink, who is co-head of a … Read more

South Korea sees ratification of trade deal with US in August

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South Korea sees ratification of trade deal with US in August South Korea sees ratification of trade deal with US in August South Korea wants its bi-lateral trade deal with the United States ratified by August, a trade official said here Wednesday, heralding a parliamentary deadlock amid opposition protests against the pact. “We seeks parliamentary endorsement of the free trade agreement in August,” deputy trade minister Lee Si-hyung told reporters in a press briefing, referring to the two-way trade accord awaiting legislative approval in Seoul and Washington. The government and the ruling party are seeking to pass the deal, originally … Read more

How do you know anything is real?

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I found this shocking post.  I know that Gucci bags and Mont Blanc pens, Rolex’s and Marmot jackets are all counterfeited but who would ever think to fake an entire store? Visit to a fake Apple store in China Mark Frauenfelderat 10:44 AM Wednesday, Jul 20, 2011 Jessica found three fake Apple stores in China and took photos. It’s not clear whether the products were genuine or knockoffs. They looked like Apple products. It looked like an Apple store. It had the classic Apple store winding staircase and weird upstairs sitting area. The employees were even wearing those blue t-shirts … Read more

Money keeps pouring in!

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 “Investors remain committed to hedge funds despite volatility in many markets”  Hedge fund flows as measured by the  GlobeOp Capital Movement Index were positive 1.36% in June.                 Barclays Hedge Index *June-11 (-1.28%) *YTD (-1.48%)                 Dow Jones Credit Suisse Core Hedge Fund Index Performance Summary

Weatherford International, Ltd. – Is Aging Inventory an Issue?

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       This is a checklist I use to quickly come to a conclusion on a stock.  I score a stock, each line getting a 1, 0, or -1.  A stock  that scored 1 on each line would be a perfect 10.  Buy it! Some of these items are quite subjective.  For example how would I score Cash Flow?  If a company’s cash flow is much lower than it’s reported earnings, that raises a flag and I would score it a -1.  If there are more insiders buying than selling, I would score it a 1.  If there are no apparent … Read more

Buffett Ready To Bid Debt Ceiling Adieu

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Provided by Yahoo! Finance   Legendary investor Warren Buffett said the U.S. should do away with the debt ceiling, the issue that has recently roiled global equity markets as speculation has intensified that if Congress does not raise the debt ceiling, the “AAA” credit rating held by the U.S. for almost 90 years could be in danger. Buffett wasn’t the first to float the idea of nixing the debt ceiling. Moody’s Investors Service’s did the same in a report published on Monday. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is exposed to the U.S. economy through its equity investments, so it’s not surprising Buffett … Read more

Senate group offers $3.75 trillion deficit cuts

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  By Richard Cowan WASHINGTON | Tue Jul 19, 2011 1:40pm EDT WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A bipartisan group of senators on Tuesday revived an ambitious budget plan that could provide new ideas for breaking the impasse in Congress over raising the country’s credit limit by August 2. Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad, one of the six Democratic and Republican senators who have been working since last December on a deficit-reduction plan, said the proposed $3.75 trillion in savings over 10 years contains $1.2 trillion in new revenues. The so-called Gang of Six briefed about half of the 100-member Senate … Read more

Politicians Creating Crisis

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Politicians Creating Crisis     As the economy improves and Companies post record profits, the market remains suppressed, Gold is at an all time high and the doom and gloom talk continues. The only real chance of a global slowdown is from politicians addressing their agenda and not the issues. From the USA to Europe we are seeing more and more political posturing and less constructive progress. There are to many Government officials in Europe and the USA that presume they are qualified at some level to speak on the national and international financial system, the fact is most are … Read more

What you need to know before Apple earnings

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From Silicon Alley Insider Apple’s REAL Earnings Expectations Apple is reporting earnings tomorrow and it is bound to deliver spectacular quarter results once again, based on the fact that the company has always been lowballing its guidance. Its quarterly EPS has been outperforming guidance by 41% on average, and revenue has been 16% higher than revenue guidance. Based on this trend, Apple should report EPS of $7.09 on $26.72 billion revenue, while its June EPS guidance was announced at $5.03 of EPS on $23 billion revenue guidance. Wall Street consensus is at $24.92 billion for revenue and $5.80 for EPS, … Read more

Chinese Debt Bomb

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China’s Treasury Holdings Make U.S. Woes Its Own Wu Hong/European Pressphoto Agency A container crane in eastern China. Buying Treasuries has bolstered China’s export economy. By DAVID BARBOZA Published: July 18, 2011   SHANGHAI — However grim Washington’s debt and deficit negotiations may seem to Americans, the impasse is nearly as disturbing for China. Multimedia America’s Foreign Creditors As the United States’ biggest foreign creditor — holding an estimated $1.5 trillion in American government debt — China has been a vocal critic of what it considers Washington’s politicized profligacy. “We hope that the U.S. government adopts responsible policies and measures … Read more

Dodd-Frank Must End

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Dodd-Frank Must End       US House Republican lawmakers, a few days before the Dodd-Frank financial regulatory overhaul turns 1 anni, blasted the law in a press conference Friday, giving it failing grades on several scores. The lawmakers, standing next to a poster board that proclaimed “Annual Report Card,” used a Red marker to grade the law “F” in 5 categories, including its impact on strengthening the economy, streamlining financial rules and stabilizing the housing market. The law is “sets the US on a collision course with economic mediocrity,” said Rep. Scott Garrett (R., NJ). The lawmaker argued that … Read more

Using the Relative Strength Index (RSI)

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The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was first developed by renowned technical analyst J. Welles Wilder. It is not to be confused with relative strength, which compares a stock’s price performance to that of an overall market average, such as the S&P 500. Instead, the RSI analyzes the recent performance of a security in relation to its own price history. RSI is a valuable tool to determine overbought/oversold levels. There are five major principles of RSI analysis: 1)  When RSI goes above 70 or below 30, it indicates that a stock is overbought or oversold and vulnerable to a trend reversal. … Read more

Will The U.S. Default Before Greece?

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    Will The U.S. Default Before Greece? By Dirk Van Dijk on July 18, 2011 | More Posts By Dirk Van Dijk | Zacks.com    I thought this was an interesting article on default and earnings by Van Dijk “The fundamental backing for the market continues to be solid. It is important to keep your eyes on the prize. There’s lots of news out there, and much of it is more dramatic than earnings results, but rarely does it have more significance for your portfolio. Earnings are, and are going to remain, the single most important thing for the … Read more

S&’s yell ,”shark!”, and everyone runs into the water instead of out of it

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These days the headlines ‘calamity’, the ‘disaster”, ‘financial Armageddon’, and the”Titanic sinking” are used to describe what will happen if Congress refuses to pass the debt ceiling authorization in a timely manner.   If the U.S. government defaults on its sovereign debt obligations and other payment obligations, there will be an immediate downgrade of our trillions of dollars of debt to something less than AAA.  This will cause enormous upheaval and increased interest costs, thus exacerbating the already enormous burden of debt the country shoulders.  These events could lead to an uncertain chain reaction of cascading financial upheavals around the world; … Read more

Debt Limit and Wall St.

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Last Update: July 15, 2011 04:08 ET   Debt Limit and Wall St Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.     Wall Street not concerned about US debt ceiling hassle or default In Washington DC, the fight over to raise or not to raise the US federal debt limit grows stranger by the day. The White House says the limit must be raised by August 2nd, or the government will not be able to pay its bills, possibly including US bonds held around the World. But as the deadline nears, US stocks and bonds, if they could talk, are saying So What! … Read more

Insider Buying: 5 Recent CEO Buys of at Least $100K

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Insider Buying: 5 Recent CEO Buys of at Least $100K 12 comments  |  by: Steven Kiel July 8, 2011  | about: KGJI, NPO, RENT, TEAR, TRST         This week I have five stocks with CEO insider buys of at least $100,000. One of the reasons why I regularly do these lists is to learn about companies that I otherwise wouldn’t have come across. There are a few interesting ones in this list that I think require more research and are reasonably priced. As I’ve previously mentioned, I prefer CEO and CFO insider buying to other buyers. Those two positions give … Read more

ConocoPhillips Splitting Up

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ConocoPhillips Splitting Up By Zacks Investment Research on July 15, 2011 | More Posts By Zacks Investment Research | Zacks.com   ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) has surprised the market with its decision to split its operations into two. The third biggest U.S. integrated oil company plans to separate its upstream oil and gas exploration and production unit from its downstream refining division into two standalone, publicly traded corporations. The spin-off, which is subject to market conditions, regulatory approvals and the receipt of a U.S. Internal Revenue Service ruling that endorses its planned tax-free status, is expected to take effect in the first … Read more

Indonesia May Ban Mining Exports

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Indonesia May Ban Mining Exports     Disturbing news today from Indonesia is that the country is considering a ban on mineral exports that would have a severe impact to a number of the regions biggest mining companies. Indonesian miners may face a massive sell off if the law is passed. Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold in Papua, Newmont Mining on the islands of Sulawesi and Sumbawa and Australia’s BHP Billiton are also at risk under the new laws. The government is drafting a mining regulation that in the next three years could see the export of raw minerals banned, … Read more

‘ Against Double Recession -Bloomberg

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Buffett Says ‘Bet Heavily’ Against Double Recession (Bloomberg) — Warren Buffett, chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., talks about the debt ceiling debate and the U.S. economy.     Buffett, speaking with Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop,” also discusses his views on acquisitions, the labor market and Todd Combs. (Source: Bloomberg)   I pay a lot of attention to what Buffett says about the economy because he is the most connected man in America.  If you look at an interlocking network diagram of corporate boards, all roads lead back to Warren Buffett.  There’s little that goes on in … Read more

The Basics of Fibonacci Retracements, Fans, Arcs, and Time Series

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The Basics of Fibonacci Retracements, Fans, Arcs, and Time Series   If you’re new here, you may want to subscribe to our RSS feed or follow us on Twitter and Facebook. Either way, thanks for checking us out! Fibonacci retracements, fans, arcs, and time series are some of the best technical analysis tools for traders. They are not a perfect indicator (what is right) but they are very helpful if you know the basics. Many years ago an Italian gentleman named Leonardo Fibonacci discovered ratios that exist throughout all of nature. These ratios are used to describe the proportions found … Read more

Businomics Blog: Small Business in the Economic Doldrums

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Small Business in the Economic Doldrums Small business is down in the dumps. Just compare the attitudes shown in NFIB’s survey of small business owners with the Business Roundtable’s survey of corporate CEOs: It’s always a little dangerous to compare one survey with another, but it sure seems that the corporate honchos are feeling better than they did before the recession, whereas small biz owners are up from the depths of the downturn, but not yet back to where they had been. Better understanding comes (as usual) from looking at the hard numbers in financial statements. Earnings of small business … Read more

Chilling Warning from Shilling!

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20% Drop in Housing to Cause Recession in 2012, Says Gary Shilling By Peter Gorenstein     Stocks rallied Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested the central bank would go ahead with another round of stimulus — aka quantitative easing — if the economy continues to slump. In this scenario, the Federal Reserve would once again purchase assets to keep interest rates low in an attempt to support the economy and prop up asset prices. So far, the Fed’s actions have done more good for asset prices like stocks (see: S&P 500 chart since 2009) while doing less … Read more