Insomniac Hedge Fund Guy

CHART OF THE DAY: Gundlach On Apple Vs. Google – Business Insider

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This is from Business Insider which if not particularly right is usually very interesting.  I personally disagree .  I do think Apple will spend some time basing before it takes off again and if I had to say where the basing would occur it would be around the just below the 200 day moving average at 525-575 but then again it could base around a nice round number like 600. Apple’s not going down in any meaningful way until someone comes up with better product(s) and so far everyone is copying them and not innovating.  Until there’s a real innovator, … Read more

Superior Energy Services, is it all a sector story? Score Zero

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This is a checklist I use to quickly come to a conclusion on a stock.  I score a stock, each line getting a 1, 0, or -1.  A stock  that scored 1 on each line would be a perfect 10.  Buy it! Some of these items are quite subjective.  For example how would I score Cash Flow?  If a company’s cash flow is much lower than it’s reported earnings, that raises a flag and I would score it a -1.  If there are more insiders buying than selling, I would score it a 1.  If there are no apparent catalysts … Read more

E.F. Hutton Breaks Silence – WSJ.com

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E.F. Hutton Breaks Silence Former Officials from the Old Brokerage Firm Look to Relaunch it Soon By AARON LUCCHETTI And BRETT PHILBIN I normally don’t blog about things that don’t have a prospect of making our readers money, but I couldn’t help myself.  This was a marquis firm that gave me my first job in the brokerage industry in 1987 (right after the crash).   A group of former officials from the old brokerage firm E.F. Hutton & Co. plan to start a new boutique financial-advisory firm under the same name. The group, led by former E.F. Hutton and Smith … Read more

Chesapeake discloses loans after Reuters report – Yahoo! Finance

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I remember back in 2008 I called the Company to ask them where Audbrey got all his money from that he used to buy massive amounts of stock in secondary offerings underwritten by Goldman Sachs.  I asked is the company loaning money to him?  They assured me they weren’t.  “Aubrey is rich,” they explained. “He has other sources of money.”  As it turns out they were less than candid.  Aubrey was borrowing money pledging his stock to buy more of it.  Talk about a guy trying to bluff down the world.  He lost and  I lost a lot of money in 2008 on … Read more

China Embraces Fracking in Seismically Active Province – Quakes to Follow?

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China Embraces Fracking in Seismically Active Province – Quakes to Follow? By John Daly | Sun, 26 February 2012 23:04 | 2   via China Embraces Fracking in Seismically Active Province – Quakes to Follow?. While hydraulic fracturing, more familiarly known as “fracking,” a technique used to liberate shale oil and natural gas deposits, is in many countries coming under increased scrutiny because of environmental concerns, China has decided to embrace the process as a way to develop indigenous energy reserves. While the U.S. is suffering from an overabundance, China and other emerging countries are well on their way to … Read more

Why Do You Hate The Oil Sector? And Yes, I Do Mean You..

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Watching SLB trade lower and lower is what I’m talking about.  Watching HES and HAL trade into the red is what I’m talking about. Watching BAS get crushed is what I’m talking about.  The market hates oil and oil service stocks.  Period.  Prices are high, these companies are making profits hand over fist, but demand for these companies simply isn’t there.  Despite SLB’s conference call, fracking still offers a major opportunity for these companies.  China is trying to sever their lifeline to coal, and shale drilling is the surgeon.  Sure natural gas is a big black eye, but this world … Read more

Sleep On This (TPX)

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Tempur-Pedic just got a taste of this ultra finicky market in a big way.  Earnings weren’t all that bad, but a slight change in guidance sent shares spiraling down almost 21% on the day.  The product is fantastic, it’s the only bed I’ve found to vastly improve my ability to sleep.  Just look at how many knockoff companies have emerged in the past year or so (although cheap, the quality is nowhere near as good).  It’s turned into a mini craze.  So does a slightly rockier outlook over the next few months merit the stock getting crushed?  I doubt it. … Read more

This Is Who Owns Apple

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These Apple charts from Business Insider are getting more and more interesting..  With all the headlines touting AAPL as hedge fund’s number one holding, it’s a bit startling to see how small a slice of the company they actually control.  Looks like wirehouse brokers couldn’t have found an easier story to pitch to their clients..   CHART OF THE DAY: Apple Stock Ownership – Business Insider.

NLY, Annaly Capital Management scores low inspire of being a Cramer have

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Overall Score: 1   Trading Chart: 1           Analyst Opinion: -1 Strong Buy 0 Buy 7 Hold 16 Underperform 0 Strong Sell 0 Insider Trading: 1 Large purchase Kevin Keyes on 8-8-11 of 50,000 shares at $17.13.  Numerous exercises without evidence of sales, quite bullish considering the negative tax implications of exercising stock and not selling sufficient amount to pay taxes. Management Discussion and Analysis: 0 Company is extremely vulnerable to changes in financial market conditions and liquidity in mortgage related assets The potential limiting / winding down of Fannie and Freddie will negatively impact securities … Read more

Someone Smarter Than You Just Sold All His AAPL

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Aswath Damodaran is what the investing world would call smart money.  As  a professor of finance at NYU, he wrote Damodaran On Valuation.  And yes, that means he wrote the book on valuation.  So when you hear that he just dumped AAPL from his portfolio with a cost basis of $5 a share, should you follow suit?  Price targets, valuations, and headlines aside, Aswath is simply following the most fundamental rule of investing: if you don’t like the stock, then just get out.  Now Aswath doesn’t have a problem with Apple, rather it’s with the type of people currently buying … Read more

Revision 5-19 Score is negative now.CALL, magicJack Vocal Tec Ltd Snapshot scores high at 7 of 10

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  Overall Score: 7 Trading Chart: 0 The chart is neutral to me at the moment.         Analyst Opinion: 1 Strong Buy 1 Buy 1 Hold 0 Underperform 0 Strong Sell 0   Insider Trading: 1 Recent insider buy at by Dir Ventor of 22,000 at $23.07 on 4/13/12 is a strong endorsement Management Discussion and Analysis: 1 Potential E911 regulation fees for nomadic VOIP providers Network Neutrality is key in the Company being able to provide it’s services to customers Change in contributions to USF will negatively impact net income Continued product and service innovation will … Read more

Time to Give Funds of Funds Another Go?

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Guest Post By: Leo Kolivakis Harriett Agnew of Dow Jones Financial news reports, It’s time consultants gave funds of funds another go: Funds of hedge funds has become a dirty term since the financial crisis. The industry has struggled to shake off the mistakes of 2008: investments in funds of convicted fraudster Bernard Madoff, liquidity mismatches and underperformance. Memories of funds of funds forced to sell their best investments to stay afloat remain painful. But those who dismiss funds of hedge funds as a spent force are overlooking a far more pressing issue: the problems presented by the rapidly rising power of … Read more

PMC, PharMerica Corporation will be proven right turning down $15 from Omnicare

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Overall Score: 3   Chart: 1 See chart Analyst Opinion: -1 Strong Buy 1 Buy 1 Hold 6 Underperform 0 Strong Sell 0   Insider Trading: 1   Management Discussion and Analysis: 0 Omnicare withdrew from their hostile takeover offer at $15 share after FTC moved to block the takeover Government and Regulation risk is high Shift from Branded to Generic drugs is resulting in accelerating margin compression Pharmacies are subject to federal and state laws regulating financial relationships with healthcare providers Pharmacies are licensed and are regulated under the DEA and FDA These laws and regulations may impact business … Read more

The New Share Class Warfare

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After hours and after earnings last night, Google (GOOG) announced a 2:1 share split.  However the split has an ulterior motive other than reducing the cost per share, as Google’s co-founders are also looking to revamp the corporate structure as a result.  With the split, a new share class will be formed other than the already existing Class A and Class B shares.  This new class will trade under a different symbol but will retain all the rights of the previous two share types, including the ability to collect any future dividends.  Here’s the catch though: ownership of these Class C … Read more

VRX, Valeant Pharmaceuticals remains a mystery. What does the CFO see?

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Overall Score:   Trading Chart: 0                         Analyst Opinion: 1 Strong Buy 5 Buy 10 Hold 3 Underperform 1 Strong Sell 0   Insider Trading:1 Insiders definitely see some potential here leading off with the CFO Schiller’s apprarent open market purchase of 27,800 at $53.64 between 3-1 and 3-12     Management Discussion and Analysis: 1 Government regulation risk is high Significant product liability risk 2012 guidance for revenue in the $3.1-$3.4bn range Company merged with Biovail in Sep 2010 Company claims 9% organic growth in 2011. Results are murky … Read more

CAKE, Cheesecake Factory is tasty but leaves one hungering for more

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Overall Score:0   Trading Chart: 0                         Analyst Opinion: 0 Strong Buy 5 Buy 5 Hold 17 Underperform 1 Strong Sell 0 Insiders: 1 Director Simon persistent buyer Management Discussion and Analysis: 0 Government and Health Safety Risk is High Comp sales rose 2% driven by increased traffic, and higher average checks which included pricing increases Cost of sales increased 60bps to 25.5% due to higher dairy and grocery prices International Expansion risk (22 stores over 5 years) which is concentrated in the MENA region 170 total restaurants, 11 … Read more

RYN, Rayonier Inc. Snapshot

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Overall Score: 6   Trading Chart: 1                   Analyst Opinion: 1 Strong Buy 3 Buy 2 Hold 2 Underperform 1 Strong Sell 0   Insider Trading: 1 Director Brown bought 17,000 shares at 44.26   Management Discussion and Analysis: 1 Sales benefited from price and volume increase in timber. Cellulose sales were strong with an increase in volume and price Absorbent materials sales were stagnant as higher prices offset lower volume Housing activity is a key driver for lumber demand Eastman Chemical (15%), Celanese (11%) and Nanton Cellulose (11%) are top 3 … Read more

FDP Fresh Del Monte Produce Snapshot

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Overall Score: 1 Chart: 1                       Analyst Opinion: -1 Strong Buy 1 Buy 0 Hold 4 Underperform 1 Strong Sell 0   Insiders: 1 CEO Amir Abu-Ghazela buys 100,000 shares at 22.59 between 3-1-12 and 3-6-12. Management Discussion and Analysis: 0    Government and Regulation Risk Natural Disaster Risk Sales rose slightly largely due to higher prices, partially offset by lower volumes Gross margins improved slightly because of higher sale prices, partially offset by higher fuel costs Higher SG&A expenses due mainly to increased selling and mkting expenses in South Europe Fuel … Read more

HAL, Halliburton Company Snapshot

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Overall Score: 6 Chart: 1                       Analyst Opinion: 1 Strong Buy 12 Buy 21 Hold 2 Underperform 0 Strong Sell 0  Insiders: 1 Director Gerber bought 30,000 shares at $36.84 Management Discussion and Analysis: 0 Government, Political, Environmental and Regulation Risk is very high Catastrophe / Accident Risk is high Sales rose significantly due to higher rig count and demand for services particularly in NA Operating Income increased due to improved demand and pricing particularly in the Completion and Production segment Corporate expenses increased due to higher legal expenses Demand … Read more

So Just How Much Is That Tweet Worth?

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Rob May, who is a co-founder of Backupify (online data storage) just posted some interesting information on his blog.  In case you ever wondered just how much your Yelp review or Tweet, was worth in real life dollars, here’s what he found: Check-in on Forsquare= $.40 LinkedIn Search= $.124 Facebook Share= $.024 Tweet= $.001 and last we have a Yelp review= $9.13 Keep in mind, May produced relatively rough estimates of these valuations based on the parameters he came up with.  Read more about how he came up with the valuation here: How Much Is a Tweet Worth? – Businessweek.

‘s One In Sand

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US Silica went public at the beginning of February.  And the first direct play on sand has been on a tear ever since. Up around 24%, SLCAs appreciation has been due to the rising demand for sand in the fracking process of extracting oil.  The fact that some of the larger resource companies have simply bought their own sand manufacturers bodes well for the company, in conjunction with a steadily rising demand for the product. Along with Heckmann Corp. (HEK), US Silica could be a nice indirect play on the US becoming a oil producing powerhouse.  It’s worth taking a … Read more

We Will See QE3. Just Not Until We Need It

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The notes from yesterday’s Fed meeting have managed to spur back-to-back down days in the market, seemingly all based on the lack of language hinting at an immediate round of Quantative Easing.  This market is hooked.  It fiends for stimulus injections, pitching a tantrum at the slightest hint of being denied what it assumes is “promised.” This reluctance to dole out yet another “dose,” this sign of maturity on the part of the Fed is a glimmer of hope that fiscal responsibility is on the horizon.  Over medicating is a self fulfilling prophecy, spiraling into the depths of physical reliance. … Read more

Why Are Oil Markets So Short Sighted?

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Other than the occasional headline, the Iran embargo is a distant memory.  And oil markets seemed to forget that an increasing oil reserve is a direct result of preparing for such an embargo.  Just because reserve levels happened to beat expectations (it’s not like analysts regularly and accurately deal with embargo situations anyways), is it reason for a 2% or more correction in USO?  I doubt it.

Why is the market down today?

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How about the fact it’s been going straight up for weeks on end? Or the fact that what the Fed minutes revealed was no surprise but any excuse for a sell-off was prompted by traders itching to short or recover some of their losses from being short? Generally the first weeks of April are week as cash in deployed raising money for taxes due April 15th.  This is usually over by the 13th so I expect sometime next week a vicious rally to begin. We are nibbling a little on beaten up sectors which are not doing too badly today. … Read more

Banking On The Banks: Is Morgan Stanley A Buy?

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According to Richard Bove, you’d be stupid to even think no.  While Bove is right, it’s lagged all but one of the big banks (WFC) with just a 30% gain YTD, that doesn’t have any effect on future results.  The catalyst here is the full merger with Citi’s remaining 49%.  Morgan Stanley Smith Barney is at present, a mash up of decades worth of mergers and acquisitions with very little though given toward how to seamlessly blend the smorgasbord of corporate entities into a well oiled machine (Trust me.  I worked there).  The computer systems are a mess (supposedly being … Read more

‘s From 3D Systems

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Can’t think of why you would need a 3D printer?  Then you’re not thinking hard enough.  3D systems (DDD)  launches their home version later this month, and then you’ll see just how limitless the possibilities are.  Just think of the time it takes to prototype a product.  Now cut that time down to a fraction of what it was and apply it to almost every industry across the board that produces products.  Cap it off by opening the door to prototyping to anyone who has one of these printers in their home.   Check out the video of the home … Read more

‘s (F) Volume?

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Ford killed it in sales for the month of march.  Even GM’s numbers were strong (although below expectations).  So what’s stifling the boost that Ford saw in the first two hours of trading?  Not to mention, it’s seeing more volume than in the past few days combined..   NYSE:F: 12.61 -0.01 (-0.04%) – Ford Motor Company.

J.P. Morgan-” Trading at practically unthinkable valuation levels, Halliburton has by far the most upside..”

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I’ve been losing money on Halliburton for the last month but probably not as much as J.P. Morgan clients.  If you would like to view this report in its entirety , you should call your J.P. Morgan broker.  I’d post it but Merrill Lynch makes me take down everything I post of theirs even though its generally completely wrong.  J.P is generally less vigilant and better, too.   1Q12 Preview – Must Be Close to Capitulation With the mood on the Street about as bad as it can get, earnings season may be just the cure to get all the … Read more