$MTH

‘t Fight the Trend

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The market pin action has been exceptionally strong.  Don’t fight the trend is a popular saying many people have uttered along with ‘ other profound market nuggets of wisdom. They work until they don’t.  Late breaking headlines about non-essential U.S. Government employees being told to leave the MidEast caused oil to spike $3 and the market to sell off some late Friday.  Yet full blown war between Israel and Iran is greeted enthusiastically. Perhaps too much so. Israel hasn’t been able to get out of Gaza, so Iran is a problem multitude of order more challenging. For the moment the … Read more

Insider Buying 03-14-25 Nothing Good Happens Below the 200 Day Moving Average

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CHAOS 2.0 seems to be morphing into Insanity 1.0.  Consumer confidence is plunging, businesses are scrambling for direction, and the world seems like a far more dangerous place as we turn allies into enemies.  The stock market is a giant real time voting machine, imperfect and prone to panic just like real people.  The 1st Quarter is coming to a close which also means insiders are blacked out from buying their stock.  Living below the 200-day moving average is a constant struggle between doubt and conviction. Without insiders confirming our decisions, it will be even more challenging than normal. The … Read more

Insider Buying 02-14-25 Buyers Coming Back as Blackout Abates and Uncertainty Rocks Stocks

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As Q4 earnings announcements start to wind down, we would expect to see a pickup in insider activity. We are seeing that, particularly in sectors that have sold off in anticipation of possible Trump regulatory changes that would make business more challenging and potentially less profitable. Of course, no one really knows for certain about any of this as Trump has shown a great propensity to say one thing and actually do another.  He may be bluffing, posturing or may change his mind. It’s very unpredictable but you have to assume when insiders buy into this, they are considering this, … Read more