AAPL

$QCOM Qualcomm, please settle with Apple and move on!

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Our read here is that both companies will ultimately end up winners. We are long QCOM but have no idea on the time frame for this investment and it has yet to make us any money.  This Bloomberg piece is one of the better pieces written on this complex situation. Qualcomm is at the center of a secular revolution in semiconductors and we are highly confident in the long-term future.  First there were personal computers, next the Internet, then smart phones, and the next leg up will be automobiles of all types; traditional, battery, and autonomous.  Semiconductors are at the … Read more

Let me check my math Facebook versus Apple $FB vs $APPL

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Facebook $FB reported a blow out quarter yesterday, earning $1.56 billion.  The stock popped $13.34 or based on its 2.8 billion shares outstanding that’s a whopping $37.35 billion increase in market value. Apple $APPL reports a quarterly profit of $18.4 billion, the largest in its  history and the stock loses $40 billion in market value. I know this is not dollar for dollar math comparisons but it is still math.  

Thoughts on Apple quarter

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Apple reported an impressive quarter yet the stock sold off sharply after hours.  Fortunately we had lowered our position in the name a little before earnings came out as we were a little too overweight it.  As I have said many times before, Apple is a very cheap stock, a little cheaper today but a great value in a fully to over-valued market.  I expect the stock to rebound nicely in the coming months.  Here’s our thesis on owning Apple. Apple is a cheap stock on fundamentals, selling at 16.03 times earnings, a discount to the S&P price earnings ratio. This … Read more

Some intelligent Apple comments

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Just what the world needs, some more comments on Apple?  Since it’s our largest position or near largest position and I have a blog, well, I can’t resist. 1. The new iPhone 6 and + is boss.  Everyone wants one.  I’m getting the big one, the really big one, the 6+.  Yes, I’ll look ridiculous making a phone call with it but actually making phone calls is one of the least used functions of my current iPhone.  Everything I do on my phone but phone calls benefits from a larger screen. 2. The Apple watch, well it looks kind of cool … Read more

Apple- a force for good

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Apple unveiled without much fun fare the slickest new computers in eons.  Combining blistering state of the art performance with a sense of design not seen in years, this new workstation computer is sure to blow away everything on the market.  The bad news is that no one is talking about workstation desk top computers any longer.  There is a hard core of professionals like myself that use multi processor computers for speed and their job functions.  At least now we won’t be trying to put them under the desk.  Apple – Mac Pro. It’s made in the USA. It … Read more

When can you buy blue chip dividend paying stocks again?

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The last couple of days have not been a sweet ride for the blue chips.  I think this quote from JP Morgan’s chief equity strategist sums up the “big money” view.  I don’t agree with it but you would be foolhardy not to watch out for trains crossing the tracks.  ” US equity strategy update from JPM’s T Lee – we see the shift out of defenses and into cyclicals continuing.  We still see the early 90s as the best analog for today and in the ’93-’94 period of abrupt rise in yields saw a progressive collapse of Defensive sectors. The … Read more

The Week Ahead March 4th

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One of the things we talk about in the Investment Survival Workshop is developing the mindset to think ahead.   When I first moved out to Park City, Utah from Atlanta, Georgia I was admittedly a bit anxious about the idea of getting up at 5:00AM every day to start researching the stock market.  After all, that’s exactly what I was doing back East except it was 7:00AM and I had a full 2 ½ hours before the market opened at 9:30EST.  I did this for some time until I came to the realization that if I was trying to … Read more

Rare Apple technical set up

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Apple is now showing bullish divergence on both weekly and daily RSI charts.  Note that the weekly RSI diviergence has been rare and even more importanly rarely wrong.  What does that mean?  After losing 27% from peak to trough, APPLE is probably a good buy here but there is a lot of conflicting noise as the market itself is unnerved by the fiscal cliff drama.  

Apple probably a fist pounding heart thumping buy right now at $575

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I have to weigh my two cents in on the iPad mini.  This is probably the most innovative product I’ve seen from Apple in a long time. Innovative in the sense that how could you possibly place another IOS device in their product line without major cannibalization.  The mini is delicious.  To hold one is to want one.  It’s every bit an iPad and more.   Heavenly light, easy to read in bed and beautiful to behold.  I want one immediately.  Unfortunately they are sold out around the country. Could Apple have priced it any better?  Absolutely not, if you … Read more

Looking ahead September 12th could be pivotal day for two reasons

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One thing we talk about in our Investment Survival Workshops is learning to develop a horizon further out than tomorrow.  I know that sounds obvious but it’s harder to do than you think.  Most people including myself, hesitate for a moment to recall what they did yesterday and most of us wake up and think about what we are going to do that day, not the next day or the following week.  When I moved from Eastern Standard time to Mountain Standard time zone, I dreaded getting up two hours earlier in the predawn to read the papers and analyst … Read more

Apple will sue Google next

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“Our lawsuit is saying, ‘Google you f***ing ripped off the iPhone, wholesale ripped us off,’” Jobs said, according to Isaacson. “I will spend my last dying breath if I need to, and I will spend every penny of Apple’s $40 billion in the bank, to right this wrong. I’m going to destroy Android, because it’s a stolen product.” The verdict reached today will set the stage for Apple taking down Google in the biggest shoot down in tech history.  It’s Google they’ve been after from the beginning and you can be sure the management of Apple is doing this and … Read more

Blue Chip Is The New Alpha – Seeking Alpha

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We loved this provocative article from Seeking Alpha, especially the quote from Alexander Graham Bell.  We may be biased though as we are also long JPM,K,MSFT, INTC, MCD, PG and BP and the author, Stephen Perry, is interning for us this summer. Blue Chip Is The New AlphaJuly 30, 2012  | 3 comments  |  includes: AAPL, ABT, CL, CVX, DD, GE, IBM, JNJ, JPM, KO, MCD, MDT, MMM, MRK, MSFT, PEP, PFE, PG, T, TGT, VZ, WFC, WMT, XOMIts been difficult to find alpha in a market that is so volatile and dependent on global macro events, but I think Ive … Read more

CHART OF THE DAY: Gundlach On Apple Vs. Google – Business Insider

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This is from Business Insider which if not particularly right is usually very interesting.  I personally disagree .  I do think Apple will spend some time basing before it takes off again and if I had to say where the basing would occur it would be around the just below the 200 day moving average at 525-575 but then again it could base around a nice round number like 600. Apple’s not going down in any meaningful way until someone comes up with better product(s) and so far everyone is copying them and not innovating.  Until there’s a real innovator, … Read more

This Is Who Owns Apple

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These Apple charts from Business Insider are getting more and more interesting..  With all the headlines touting AAPL as hedge fund’s number one holding, it’s a bit startling to see how small a slice of the company they actually control.  Looks like wirehouse brokers couldn’t have found an easier story to pitch to their clients..   CHART OF THE DAY: Apple Stock Ownership – Business Insider.

Someone Smarter Than You Just Sold All His AAPL

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Aswath Damodaran is what the investing world would call smart money.  As  a professor of finance at NYU, he wrote Damodaran On Valuation.  And yes, that means he wrote the book on valuation.  So when you hear that he just dumped AAPL from his portfolio with a cost basis of $5 a share, should you follow suit?  Price targets, valuations, and headlines aside, Aswath is simply following the most fundamental rule of investing: if you don’t like the stock, then just get out.  Now Aswath doesn’t have a problem with Apple, rather it’s with the type of people currently buying … Read more

Buybacks And A Dividend The Answer For Apple

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Looks like Apple finally has a solution for the pile of cash they have amassed.  According to SFGate, shareholders should expect a dividend of $2.65 and a significant buyback of stock that would return another 10 billion or so on a quarterly basis.  Apple’s decision will be completed over the next three years.  In the wake of the new iPad 3 selling out almost immediately, the tech giant knows that they need to start moving all this cash off their balance sheets.  Especially considering how it seems the massive company has been sucking some of the life out of the … Read more

China Dethrones iPhone, Samsung Sales Surge

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Apple’s market cap may rule the S&P, but it’s a different story in China.  The tech giant is struggling to efficiently capture a leading share of the country’s massive market, while Samsung is proving a substantial opponent.  With more than three times the market space over Apple (24.3% vs 7.5%), the South Korean company has a strong lead in subscribers which isn’t expected to be challenged any time soon.  According to Bloomberg, Samsung’s blanket strategy proved much more effective in gaining subscribers than Apple’s tactically narrow approach: “Apple’s partnerships with China’s second- and third-largest carriers give it access to about 34 … Read more

‘s What To Expect From Apple Today On The iPad 3

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In case you’ve been trapped in a car for the past two months like this guy, the new iPad is coming out today.  Here’s Business Insider’s coverage of what you can expect from the new device.  Although, 4G is probably the only thing that most people will notice on the third version of the extra large Facebook device..   Retina display Quad-core processor / more RAM Improved camera LTE Siri integration Slightly different form factor Similar pricing iOS 5.1 Home button March 16th release date THE APPLE INVESTOR: All Eyes On Apple’s ‘Special Event’ Today, Here’s What To Expect.

Apple Looking Up In Shanghai Trademark Case

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A local court denied a motion to surpress the sale of the iPad in Shanghai due to a similar ongoing case in the Guangdong Province, allowing Apple stores to continue selling the product until an outcome is decided.  Facing the unpredictability of Chinese courts, this is finally a glimmer of hope for the tech giant.  Although this has no bearing on how the Guangdong case will turn out, it shows that China is in support of Apple continuing with sales probably due to some political pressure. “Proview’s injunction request was rejected,” Carolyn Wu, the Apple spokeswoman, said in a telephone … Read more

Are You Aggressive or Conservative? Better Check Your Beta..

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By: Harvey Sax   A lot of that depends on the beta of your portfolio.  But before we get into all of that, let’s go over just what beta is. Stock Beta is a ratio that indicates how a stock fluctuates with relation to the market.  Beta is an indicator of market risk also called volatility.  When you research a stock, look at the beta to get an idea as to how choppy the returns on this stock will be with relation to the market.  If this doesn’t align with your risk tolerance, this stock may not be for you. … Read more

Facebook Under Fire as it Approaches IPO

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I’m sick of Facebook.  The name makes me cringe every time the talking heads on CNBC spout out the same regurgitated facts; all too reminiscent of Armani  clad penguins feeding vast fields of their young.  Regardless, here’s some news that might  get a smile out of your spiteful inner self: lawsuits against the social media giant are rapidly piling up as we near the initial public offering.  No, the company didn’t decided to go on one last rampant crime spree just before going public.  It’s the scent of money in the air that drives the shoals of patent lawyers into … Read more

‘s not hard, just follow the Dividend..

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For those of you long AAPL yesterday, the paltry 6% or so gain on the most impressive numbers that we’ve seen to date from the tech giant were a bit depressing.  The fact that every single metric that analysts provided estimates on was completely blown out of the water combined with the $7 drop in share price before the announcement only reinforces the fact that both analysts and the street had no idea how profoundly astounding Apple’s results would be.  So why doesn’t the market seem to reflect similar sentiment?  One word: Dividends.  With over $17 trillion in qualified retirement … Read more

Google vs. Apple

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As I sit here typing out this post on my MacBook, occasionally running a question by Siri on my iPhone just for the heck of it, I can’t help but notice I’ve been blindsided by the Apple lifestyle… and I don’t seem to mind a bit.  An iPod sits in my car, next to the two iPod shuffles that I take on the mountain when I ride, and I’m long Apple stock.  My old HTC Incredible smartphone sits in a box, long forgotten.  And I’m certainly not the only one to completely buy into the way of life that Steve … Read more

The Week Ahead: Apple-HTC Smartphone Suit Moves Toward Ruling in U.S. – WSJ.com

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Judgment Day Looms for Apple, HTC   By IAN SHERR Apple Inc.’s claims that some smartphones running Google Inc.’s Android software copy its inventions are approaching their first big judgment day in the U.S. The International Trade Commission in Washington on Wednesday is expected to rule on whether some phones made by HTC Corp. violate Apple’s patents. The ruling could lead to a ban on handsets sold by the Taiwanese company, which uses the Android operating system and is the No. 3 smartphone provider in the U.S. market, according to research firm Nielsen. via The Week Ahead: Apple-HTC Smartphone Suit … Read more

DJ UPDATE: US Judge Rejects Apple Request To Ban Samsung Galaxy Sales

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I don’t think this will impact our pairs trade much but it certainly blows apart the thesis.  The bottom line is that Apple’s chart looks more bullish than Google’s this week.  There may be a short reaction Monday but there is still going to be a trial.  I like asymetric trades where if you are right there is potential big upside or in this case downside with Google.  And if you are wrong, there may be no major reaction at all.  Samsung already has 30% market share with its partner, Google and its doing little to hurt Apple as they … Read more

Five Reasons to Short Apple

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First of all let me defend this trade by saying that I’m like everyone else a huge Apple fan.  I even run 4 30″ Monitors on an Apple Desktop (although I do use Boot Camp and Windows 7)  And I think Apple is a very cheap stock and a fundamental buy. So this idea is really just a short-term trade and could provide some hedge in a bear market. 1. Apple flashing bearish RSI divergence on both daily and weekly charts. Recent run to $420 has over extended the stock technically.  I attached the daily chart but the weekly chart shows bearish divergence. … Read more

What you need to know before Apple earnings

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From Silicon Alley Insider Apple’s REAL Earnings Expectations Apple is reporting earnings tomorrow and it is bound to deliver spectacular quarter results once again, based on the fact that the company has always been lowballing its guidance. Its quarterly EPS has been outperforming guidance by 41% on average, and revenue has been 16% higher than revenue guidance. Based on this trend, Apple should report EPS of $7.09 on $26.72 billion revenue, while its June EPS guidance was announced at $5.03 of EPS on $23 billion revenue guidance. Wall Street consensus is at $24.92 billion for revenue and $5.80 for EPS, … Read more

Weekend Reading Links

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The weekend is always a great time to catch up on some of the week’s reading you missed… Markets have gotten conditioned to central bankers flooding the market with money every time something goes wrong. [The Psy-Fi Blog] A profile of Jonathan Ive the “design genius” behind the rise of Apple. [I Heart Wall Street] Market bubbles and investor psychology.  [Vanguard Group] Buffett’s worst investment ever (and its not what you think) and7 other unusual things I learned about Warren Buffett. [The Altucher Confidential] Why are some cities happier than others?  [The Atlantic] Sirius is Clearning up its balance sheet. [Sirius Buzz] The frequency … Read more

‘s Focus Growth Fund: A Brief Analysis

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by: Dr. Osman Gulseven In a recent article, I discussed the top holdings in Morgan Stanley’s portfolio. According the latest 13F filings, Morgan Stanley’s (MS) year-to-date performance was mediocre and below the S&P 500 (SPY) return. The investment banks mutual funds have been lagging behind the market since the last decade. The mediocre performance of investment banks portfolio shows that they take hard-earned money and invest in under-performing assets. They also charge management fees and hidden costs such as front-end/back-end loads, plus commissions you never heard of. Some companies charge up to 3% in management expenses. I was checking which funds … Read more