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If this was Google, stock would be up $20.   Apple Executives Met With F.D.A. to Discuss Mobile Medical Applications – NYTimes.com.

http://m.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1412369/why-recession-would-be-good-china I like the part where Buffett makes his point that rapid growth and inflation are much worse for stocks and the authors comparison to China

My favorite technical indicator is a tool that I have modified to show Wilder’s Relative Strength (RSI) divergence.  It’s a great way of spotting short term trend changes up or down. Anadarko (APC) is exhibiting text book bullish divergence right now.  It won’t take much  of a catalyst for this coiled cobra to make a sharp move higher.  To learn more about how I interpret divergence refer to this article I posted on the Sax Angle, Divergence- the best technical indicator

Apple is our largest position so I thought you might want to hear my thoughts on the Apple’s earnings call.  I’m not going to reiterate any facts and figures; there is plenty out there.  Here’s my take and not necessarily in order of importance. 1. Emerging markets were unbelievable strong. Major markets like China growing 20% YOY, and others 40-70%.   North America was disappointing but Apple owns the U.S. market.  Not to worry, though.  The user bases is super loyal and entrenched.  When the larger iPhone comes out, it will be the biggest upgrade cycle yet.  Basically the U.S … Read more

First of all it wasn’t a rout.  It was barely a 2% sell-off.  It’s just that at these lofty numbers, the Dow drop of 318 points sounds bigger than it really is.  You’ll hear explanations from too much complacency, winding down of Fed QE, to troubles in the Chinese shadow banking problems and many more.  One thing’s for certain, insiders at major corporations didn’t get hurt too bad as they have been unloading their stock holding for weeks on end.  That also means there is plenty of money to buy the dip too but I daresay you’ll see any buying … Read more

You really have to read this or at least skim it. Apple is our largest position too. Icahn ratcheted up the heat on Ebay yesterday and he’s back tweeting and bemoaning how undervalued Apple is today. I completely agree with him on both counts.  And just in case somebody is reading this that knows Carl, tell him to ask Tim Cook to buy Ebay and create an unstoppable payment giant by taking over Paypal.  Apple can then spin off Ebay or possibly combine NEWCO with iTunes.   via Carl C. Icahn Issues Open Letter To Apple Shareholders — NEW YORK, Jan. … Read more

There hasn’t been a down month in the S&P for 7 months now and only 2 down months since November 2011. We are more than due. f I’d even lay odds that its is January as we are down .05% now.  From the technicals I look at the market is way overbought but I don’t trade the market as I don’t seem to be able to do that reliably enough over longer periods to make any money.  I do look at technical ratios and am a short term trader but always with the fact or “illusion” that I understand what … Read more

This chart from Barron’s doesnt’ paint a bullish picture in my opinion. Only one buy and the rest are sells. Does make you stop and wonder. The lack of insider buying is notable and lamentable for the long only investor. http://online.barrons.com/public/search/results.html?HEADER_TEXT=Inside Scoop&article-doc-type={Inside Scoop}&mod=BOL_article_full_more

One of the more colorful quarterly earnings calls this season. Its refreshing to find someone who is buying their stock when all of the Googles, Linkedin, Yelps, Facebooks, etc of the world can’t sell it fast enough. http://blogs.wsj.com/corporate-intelligence/2014/01/16/why-oil-tycoon-rich-kinder-feels-undervalued/?mod=WSJ_qtoverview_wsjlatest

  By ERIC MORATH CONNECT The state making the fastest climb up the millionaire rankings doesn’t have a single Tiffany or Saks Fifth Avenue store. The closest BMW dealership is a six-hour drive from the capital. Welcome to North Dakota, which jumped 14 spots in the annual rankings of millionaire households per capita released by Phoenix Marketing International. The firm derives its figures from a combination of data from the Federal Reserve, Census Bureau and polling firm Nielsen Co. (See a slideshow of the top 10 states) There were approximately 53,000 more millionaire households in the U.S. last year than … Read more

  December 2013 Performance of the HFRX Indices   HFRX INDICES – STRATEGY 2014 Glocap Hedge Fund Compensation Report Monthly Performance Historical Performance DEC ROR NOV ROR 2013 INDEX VALUE (DECEMBER 31, 2013) Last 36 M (ann) Last 48 M (ann) Global HFRX Absolute Return Index 0.29% 0.45% 3.57%   989.00 0.20% 0.12% HFRX Aggregate Index 0.84% 0.57% 8.31% 1,544.18 3.07% 4.17% HFRX Equal Weighted Strategies Index 0.49% 0.33% 6.29% 1,197.06 0.73% 1.85% HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index 0.56% 0.55% 6.72% 1,225.49 0.22% 1.44% HFRX Market Directional Index 0.89% 0.25% 9.50% 1,158.07 -2.76% 0.13% Equity Hedge HFRX Equity Hedge Index 1.25% 0.96% … Read more

No coincidence, Business Insider pumps this story when Apple is the rare up name in an ugly tape.  I do agree with the thesis and one up it, Apple is just plain cheap.  The Nest acquisition is a bit troubling, though.  I’m sure Google overpaid but the iPod is to the iPhone as the Nest is to the __?  You see the guy that started Nest, supposedly created the iPod. ( didn’t Jobs do that?) JAY YAROW Apple CEO Tim Cook should be happy. What a difference a year makes for Apple. In 2013, Apple’s stock was in a tail spin, analysts were … Read more

China overtakes US as world’s largest goods traderBy Jamil Anderlini and Lucy Hornby in Beijing©AFPChina became the world’s biggest trader in goods for the first time last year, overtaking the US for all of 2013 and finishing the year with record trade figures in December.The total value of China’s imports and exports in 2013 was $4.16tn, a 7.6 per cent increase from a year earlier on a renminbi-adjusted basis, according to figures released by the Chinese government on Friday. via China overtakes US as world’s largest goods trader – FT.com.

Sax Angle Partners owns EEM, iShares MSCI Emerging Market ETF.  We prefer to invest in companies where management is buying but that information is not available in these markets and having just got back from China last month, I find it hard to ignore it completely.  The Financial Times reported today that China became the world’s biggest trader in goods for the first time last year, overtaking the US for all of 2013 and finishing the year with record trade figures in December.   Ahead of the Crowd | THURSDAY, JANUARY 9, 2014 Emerging Market Stocks Are too Cheap to Ignore By JACK HOUGH | MORE … Read more

This scary chart from the Washington Service provides a graphical view of the flight from equities by C level officers and directors.  There has not  been a time in recent years when insiders have unloaded as much stock as now. Insider selling is not as good an investment clue as buying but still one has to wonder.  Shouldn’t you be a little wary of buying the very stock those insiders are unloading?  Particularly those of companies whose stock price defies traditional financial analysis, the momentum stocks. Momentum stocks always have the same premise.  Ordinary accounting and financial valuation rules don’t … Read more

Beware of the black swan. Black swan events were introduced by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2001 book Fooled By Randomness, which concerned financial events. His 2007 book The Black Swan extended the metaphor to events outside of financial markets. Taleb regards almost all major scientific discoveries, historical events, and artistic accomplishments as “black swans”—undirected and unpredicted. He gives the rise of the Internet, the personal computer, World War I, dissolution of the Soviet Union, and the September 2001 attacks as examples of black swan events. My top Black Swan events for 2014 and how to recognize them early and successfully survive them if not outright profit from them. 1. Market crash– early … Read more

Only two names on this list grab me as having notable recent insider buying  They are Apache and Tenet Healthcare.   By Ben Levisohn Picking underperforming stocks has not been a winning strategy over the long term. It can, however, succeed in the short term–especially at the beginning of the year and when combined with low valuations. Goldman Sachs’ strategist Stuart Kaiser and team explain: Lower valuation stocks have outperformed peers by an average of 420 bp in 1Q during the past 35 years vs. just 170 bp in all other quarters. Buying laggards has also performed well early in … Read more

2013 – a look back at performance metrics for the year US equities saw gains across the board in 2013.  DJIA +26.5%, SPX +29.6%, SPR +30.12%, Nasdaq +38.32%, Wilshire 5K +30.45%, Russell 2K +37%. The DJIA, SPX, and RTY are all at all-time nominal highs.  However, of the “Big 3” US indices (DJIA, SPX, CCMP), only the DJIA has achieved all time REAL highs (adjusted for inflation).  The SPX still has another ~10-13% to go (depending on how one measures inflation).  The Nasdaq hasn’t even achieved fresh nominal highs. Within the SPX, gains were broad w/several sectors outpacing the broader index.  Some of … Read more

This is the time you get 2014 predictions.  For the most part this is a completely worthless endeavor and a waste of your time unless you are a contrarian.   For me, it’s interesting reading and I am a contrarian. We will publish a few of them and if we seen anything noteworthy, I’ll highlight it.   Overview2014 should bring with it slightly better economic growth and a slow increase in real interest rates.We believe investors should continue to overweight equities in their portfolios.Additionally, we suggest avoiding Treasuries and TIPS and focusing on fixed income credit sectors.2013: A Year of … Read more

By GREGORY ZUCKERMAN, ROB COPELAND and NICOLE HONG CONNECT Updated Jan. 1, 2014 8:26 p.m. ET A trader who made more than $100 million from a $10 million bet against gold. A hedge fund that gained 42% after a bullish wager on stocks. A firm that saw returns of 48% thanks in part to soaring Japanese stocks. via Tepper, Tudor and Paulson Were Among 2013’s Big Winners – WSJ.com.

If you haven’t heard the cash registers churning away yet, it’s because you have no imagination.  Estimated sales today, the first day I read were $395 million already with long lines forming.   Since the state gets 25% of this take, expect Colorado coffers to rapidly fill up.  Sure fire winners are Colorado GO muni bonds. Whether its a matter of time before dozens of states follow suit or Colorado and Washington remain the new pot capitals is hard to say. Worlds first legal recreational marijuana sales begin in Colorado – The Denver Post.   Below is a link to Colorado … Read more

Thank you to all of our followers this year.  We are lucky as the market has been very forgiving and generous to long investors.  This article from the Journal talks about just how successful “boring investors” were. It’s a good New Year’s resolution though not to confuse smarts with luck.   How many of  us were 100% invested in stocks at the beginning of the year?  Most sophisticated investors probably started the year with a traditional blend of 60% equity 40% bonds  or some mixture of cash in their portfolios.    Bonds had their worst year in 20 yrs. Cash returned zero.  That … Read more

This is one heck of an interesting speech delivered by self-exiled American hacker/bad boy Jacob Applebaum.  I listened to half of it and came away with the conclusion if he died suddenly it would certainly not be surprising to anyone. Attendees at the Chaos Communications Congress in Hamburg this weekend got a surprising rundown of the NSA’s surveillance capabilities, courtesy of security researcher Jacob Appelbaum. Appelbaum, who co-wrote the Der Spiegel article that first revealed the NSA catalog, went into further detail onstage, describing several individual devices in the catalog and their intended purposes. THE EXPLOITS COULD BE DELIVERED BY … Read more

Interesting article for me as we have a similar investment style.  They have a long short insider fund as well which we have significantly outperformed.  Their long only fund is smoking it this year as you would expect.  It’s not doing any better than the market when you account for sales charges though.     Insider Buying: These Stocks Are CEO FavoritesBy GRACE L. WILLIAMS Portfolio manager David Miller buys only companies whose top execs put their own money on the line.ArticleComments 5EmailPrintReprints smallerLargerWhile many fund managers use complex strategies to try to outsmart the market, David Miller of Catalyst … Read more

Henry Blodget calls for stock market crash again.  Good work Henry. I really love the charts  but we all know a broken clock is right twice a day. As for market crashing, I think the warm up signs are pretty similar.  Large swings up and down, dramatic pick up in volatility.  Think summer of 1987, tech bubble of 2000 and oil price gyrations in 2008 all augured for big price moves.  We are not quite there but I do expect some black swans paddling by.  My hunch is a collapse in social media stocks, China banking meltdown, or Israeli preemptive strike on … Read more

A Holiday Gift for Apple Shareholders By TERESA RIVAS | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR A deal that will open up the vast China market to iPhones should help the stock for years to come. Apple investors got an early Christmas present after the tech giant inked an agreement over the weekend to supply iPhones to the world’s largest mobile network. Yet we think Apple stock is the gift that will keep on giving in 2014. Late Sunday, Apple (ticker: AAPL) announced that it had reached a multiyear agreement with China Mobile (CHL) to supply it with its iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c. … Read more

Where’s the next Black Swan event coming from?  My guess China or Iran/MidEast.  The banking sector in China has been discussed as train wreck waiting to happen. By SHEN HONG And DINNY MCMAHON CONNECT Dec. 23, 2013 7:50 a.m. ET A cash crunch in China pushed short-term interest rates to a new recent high Monday and highlighted the difficulties faced by the central bank in managing an increasingly complex and stressed financial system. Rates rose again despite cash injections last week by the People’s Bank of China, 601988.SH +1.53% which has tried to rein in lending but is facing crosscurrents … Read more