Uncategorized

STAG-FLA-TION with a hot PPI and CPI print this week, talking heads will be all over the return of stagflation. Sub-par economic growth and rising input costs across the board will make for interesting headlines soon.  The stock market doesn’t … Read more.

We are positioned for this trade with shorts on the XLU and put option on it as well as puts on the Vanguard Utility ETF, VPU.  Both of which have made nice runs this year and could pull back some … Read more.

We wrote in our quarterly letter that we expected inflation to rise more than expected.  The CPI and PPI next week should give the new Fed Chairperson, the chance to exhibit her inflation fighting credentials.  Expect some tougher talk of the … Read more.

We mentioned in our quarterly letter than we had picked up small stakes in handful of beaten down biotech stocks that insiders were buying.  One of those was Merrimack, the largest percentage gainer in the market. We have been following … Read more.

I believe that you will soon see a noticeable and rather unwelcome uptick in inflation due to the rise in asset prices and the improving employment picture. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate, to strive for full employment and … Read more.

When I trained brokers at Paine Webber we used to bring in mutual fund wholesalers to pitch us their latest and greatest funds.  It was an optional meeting and had good attendance.  After all it was a free lunch without … Read more.

  DJ United CEO Back in Market; That’s Been Harbinger — Market Talk 15:48 EDT – United Continental (UAL) CEO Jeff Smisek’s purchase of 20K shares Monday “bodes quite well” for the airline’s stock if his history of buying at … Read more.

Why stocks may be sniffing out inflation.  Is it time to buy gold or gold miners?  We think its a favorable trade.  It wasn’t that long ago that it was gospel to have 5-10% of a conservative portfolio in gold.  The … Read more.

Trading Desk Photos – Business Insider.   Yours truly  about 17 down or so. The  one from Park City of course. Not a bad place to have to trade from.

Einhorn Sees Tech Bubble – Business Insider. Hedge fund manager David Einhorn, who runs Greenlight Capital, says that we’re witnessing a tech bubble, CNBC reported citing his fund’s quarterly investor letter. “Now there is a clear consensus that we are witnessing … Read more.

The Momentum Stock Meltdown Has Exposed A Big Flaw In A Very Popular Investing Strategy Passive investing, or investing in a benchmark index and letting the money ride, is probably the most time-tested and most prescribed investment strategy in the … Read more.

The relentless cram down of IPOs has come to a screeching halt as 4 of the 8 deals to price Thursday night got postponed.  The insane valuations many Internet stocks traded at and still trade at got taken to the … Read more.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303847804579479841325311678?mg=reno64-wsj

Somewhat counter-intuitively, history shows that buying the market at a lower relative P.E. is likely to be hazardous to your financial health in the short term.  It is important to mention that these results are totally skewed by your time … Read more.

I’m glad to see someone else echoing my view.  Google seems the most vulnerable in my opinion as the only model the company has is an ad model.  At stunning figure seldom mentioned is that the Safari browser (Apple) dominates mobile … Read more.

Bright Horizon Family Solutions announced a secondary this afternoon as we expected.  Glad we are short the stock, not happy we are not short more.  After trying to cover small amounts with almost none for sale, the underwriters, aka manipulators … Read more.

Game, Set, Match. I can’t imagine Amazon or Google can be too happy about this. If it comes to pass, two virtual monopolies will band together and become one, unstoppable ,unmoveable force. I just for one hope and pray that … Read more.

http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2014/03/21/buy-russia-after-the-plunge-a-crazy-idea-that-usually-works/?mod=BOLBlog Controversial, but apparently it works well for the patient investor. I don’t believe Putin will screw the pooch. He acts like a man who knows exactly what he is doing. Then again from what I have read, he may … Read more.

lPrintBy ALEXANDRA SCAGGS CONNECT REUTERS   Five-years after U.S. stocks hit their financial-crisis low, Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin says it’s going to be an uphill battle for stocks to move significantly higher this year.Mr. Kostin points to the level … Read more.

What I’ve been saying for some time. The important thing to remember is that not all insiders are bearish. There are still pockets of opportunities. The point being it will be hard to generate returns with passive index funds. As … Read more.

People that live and ski here scratch their heads and wonder how Vail will ever recoup the approximate $350 million paid for the Canyons without the real estate. That’s a lot of liability for piazza and lift tickets no matter … Read more.

Interesting read.  Note the SaxAngle has nearly 50% of its portfolio in cash although dare say we know anywhere near as much as legendary Seth Klarman. I’d like to short more but the crap keeps rising. Our rationale is simpler.  We can … Read more.

Jim Cramer says the markets turn on Rich Kinder, CEO of Kinder Morgan Energy Partners  KMP_, is a mistake because of his companys performance over the long term.Cramer notes that while many people dislike master limited partnerships, he still believes they … Read more.

There is a record amount of stock being bought by corporations while at the very same time the people running those corporations are dumping it.  Per Standard & Poor’s, share repurchases increased to $128.2 billion during Q3 2013, up 8.6% … Read more.

US Exchanges Current Hot Stocks: Biggest Up Moves Current information as of Tue, Mar 4th, 2014 Hot Stocks lists the most volatile stocks, ranked by highest standard deviation compared to their past 20 days of data. CurrentDailyWeeklyMonthly FlipCharts Filter: US Exchanges … Read more.

http://www.businessinsider.com/most-intense-ski-slopes-2013-11

Value investors like to buy at a discount.  They want to buy a stock for less than they perceive it to be worth.  Value investors buy more when the stock goes down. It’s a better deal.  The value trap is … Read more.

This is interesting as the bullish cheerleaders for FaceBook have been touting how WhatsApp  has 99.9% uptime and handles more messages than the entire global telecom community combined.    Somehow that justifies the insane price ($19 billion) paid for a … Read more.

I think Barron’s brings ups an interesting arcane accounting point. There seems to be a lot of flexibility in the way these MLPs classify expenses between operating, maintaining, and future expansion buckets. If KMI is robbing Peter to pay Paul, … Read more.

The Barron’s piece has a clever title but that is the last bit that is. The lack of journalism integrity is stunning. While I always want to hear the bear opinion on any investment idea, especially one that I am … Read more.