Trading Ideas

Insider Buying Week 7-28-23 Euphoria has Begun

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Last week pretty much heralded the end of the bear market.  True, long-lasting bull markets start with a plethora of insider buying. That’s obviously not happening.  I’m trying to figure out what that means.  Every significant market correction ended with a near explosion of the insider buying versus selling ratio going vertical. Right now, insiders are cautious. I think we should be too.  That doesn’t mean there won’t be anomalies.     Name: John H Stone Position: President and CEO Transaction Date: 2023-07-27  Shares Bought: 17,500 Average Price Paid: $116.62 Cost: $2,040,892 Company: Allegion plc (ALLE) Allegion plc, a leading … Read more

Insider Buying Week 6-30-23-The Nasdaq 100 notched its best-ever first half of a year.

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The Nasdaq 100 notched its best-ever first half of a year.  In a classic reversion to the mean, the worst-performing sector usually becomes one of the best-performing ones.  The Nasdaq 100 will need to rise nearly another 200 points to recoup the amount lost since December of 2021.   I doubt if it could have recouped these losses this fast, though, without the market hype about generative AI. Nasdaq had been on an unsustainable tear since the beginning of the 2020 work-from-home hyper stimulus-infused Pandemic.  I have no idea how long this can last, but I can say with reasonable confidence … Read more

Insider Buying Week 5-19-23 If you want to play a game of chicken- Tyson Insiders are Buying

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No one really believes the U.S. will default on the debt.  The least of which are these insiders stepping up to buy their company’s stock last week.  If we’re talking a game of chicken, I say look at what Tyson Foods insiders are doing.  Five insiders took advantage of the steep share price drop on Q1 earnings disappointment.  Albemarle insiders continue to bet on the lithium economy. If you’re inclined to bet on default, take a look at the PRA Group’s earnings disaster and the new CEO purchase.  Debt collection could be a hot new growth market. You can be … Read more

Insider Buying Week 5-12-23 Prelude to Something but What?

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Insiders are coming out in force to buy regional and community banks.  Normally significant insider buys are met with a predictable market response, a positive bounce between 3%-5%. This is not happening.  There is no urgency, as the stocks, for the most part, are lower than when the “informed investor” purchased the shares.  I like to believe that no one knows more about the business than the people running it, but banks may be a glaring exception to my dogma.  First of all, banks’ balance sheets are complicated and notoriously obtuse.   2008 should serve as an indelible reminder of that. … Read more

Bye Bye Jay Time for Another Chair Insider Buying Week 3-24-23

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We are deep in the darkness, the earnings blackout period in which corporate insiders are restricted from buying their own shares. It’s a perfect time for short sellers to prey on the frazzled nerves of investors that just experienced their first bank run since the Great Financial Recession of 2008. This time the run wasn’t caused by Wall Street and banks that sold liars loans to uncreditworthy customers but instead by the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve itself. Jay Powell left interest rates at zero far too long and raised them far too fast. He failed at running the … Read more

One way this is not like 2008, Insiders are NOT Buying -Insider Buying Week 3-10-23

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This is LIKE 2008, contrary to what you may have heard about the recent Silicon Valley Bank failure.   Banks either don’t want to pay competitive deposit rates or can’t.  Competing with Fed Chairman Powel’s ~5%  treasuries is hard. Actually no banks can compete with it. Vast sums are being withdrawn from the banking system. Ironically the stock market is on the only place you will be able to compete with the yield crisis that the Fed is precipitating.  Many solid companies are paying good dividends with the likely prospect of raising them.  So tell me, how is this not like … Read more

Hedge Fund Analysts Class 2nd Semester- a Word about Attendance

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I have very flexible rules about work and participation in the Insiders Intern Analyst program. Still, one of them is non-negotiable, and I make that clear in the interview process. The main question I asked everyone in the intern interview process- is whether you will give it the time it deserves, not just for yourself but out of respect for my time and the time of our fellow interns. If you can’t make a meeting, that’s understandable, but you should put forth and share work or insight of some kind to make up for your absence. it’s assumed you are … Read more

The Fed has a Hammer but needs a Scalpel Insider Buying Week 2-24-23

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It’s a commonly held view amongst market strategists that the Fed follows interest rates, not determines them. You don’t have to look very far to see plenty of evidence of that.  It’s a quiet conspiracy amongst talking heads and futures markets that economic events and statistics are immediately reflected in real-time price action in the bond markets, dot plots, and other dynamic markets. The Fed will often talk up its view, and by the time they do take some action on rates, it’s hardly a surprise. This is, of course, by design. The Powell Fed believes in transparency and no … Read more

Insider Buying Week 2-10-23

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When I started developing the Insiders Fund’s strategy in 2001, I knew I would miss out on some of the all-time greatest investments since founders of disruptive companies are loaded to the gills with their own company’s stock and don’t need to buy more of it. That was all right with me if could forgo this “pot of gold” and by doing so avoid the scams, frauds, and charlatans that populate the financial world.  This week we have the rare insider buy at a potential pot of gold, Vicarious Surgical, a true med tech disruptor.   Name: John Morici Position: … Read more

Stock market Pundit Mike Wilson gets Egged- Insider Buying Week Ending 2-3-23

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Morgan Stanley’s head of equity strategist Mike Lee stood out from the herd last year calling the market sell-off in 2022. Not only did he get it right, but he also stuck with his guns and didn’t back down during the many gut-wrenching bear market rallies last year.  He’s been bearish since the market rally last Fall and has doubled down on what is turning out to be one of the most embarrassingly bad and brazen market calls I’ve heard in some time. He’s not alone, though. Almost every pundit I read or listen to, says the same thing. Don’t … Read more

Animal Spirits and the Doomsday Clock are on a Collision Course-Insider Buying Week 1-27-23

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Not one of the many podcasts and pundits I listen to predicted a rally of 16% magnitude since the October lows. The January rally to date has been raw animal spirts. Obviously, this can’t keep going with the Fed dangling 5% risk-free returns out there.   Insider buying is incredibly scarce, even considering the seasonal effects of quarterly earnings blackouts.  This is what interested me last week in the thinly populated world of insider buying. The most exciting event is the new bubble forming around AI, capped off by Microsoft’s $10 billion in investment in OpenAi’s and  their overnight ubiquitous quantum … Read more

Is Rivian $RIVN a Good Buy? They make 10,000 cars a month like Tesla $TSLA did in 2015

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Dir Flatley bought 40,000 shares of Rivian back last May at $29.31 per share. The CEO Robert Scaringe did the same, buying 41,000 shares at $25.78. Today it closed up 11.8% at $18.15. Rivian has a market cap of $14.9 billion dollars, but it only has an enterprise value of around $3.4 Billion when you factor in the cash on hand. Rivian announced it produced 10,020 vehicles in Q4. Tesla achieved that in the 1st quarter of 2015.  Unlike Tesla,  Rivian has a wildly popular EV pickup ready now.  How long it takes to get one and the delivery price … Read more

Notable CrowdStrike $CRWD Insider Buy Week 12-30-22

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Following insider behavior closely was an excellent way to avoid some of the technology investing disasters in 2022.  Darlings of the past decade—namely technology stocks—were hammered last year. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq plunged into a bear market as the Federal Reserve decided it didn’t want its legacy to be runaway inflation.  Their record interest rate hikes crushed demand and continues to dampen interest for risk-sensitive assets. We’re now deep in the throes of the 4th quarter earnings blackout when insiders are restricted from taking advantage of these reduced prices.  Even if we weren’t, I don’t think there would be … Read more

Insider Buying Week 12-16-22 CRONOS Up in Smoke?

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The Biden administration may be the savviest market timer on or off Wall Street this year.  The widely scoffed-at and criticized announcement on March 31 stated that the administration would start selling oil from the nation’s strategic petroleum reserves.  It sounded like a cheap trick to influence voters upset about high prices at the pump for the Midterm elections. At the time, the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate Crude hovered around  $98 per barrel and has gotten as high as $110.  Friday’s close of $74.50 represents a short seller’s return of over 35% in less than nine … Read more

‘s Blockbuster Short Sale Trade

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The Biden administration may be the savviest market timer on or off Wall Street this year.  The widely scoffed-at and criticized announcement on March 31 stated that the administration would start selling oil from the nation’s strategic petroleum reserves.  It sounded like a cheap trick to influence voters upset about high prices at the pump for the Midterm elections. At the time, the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate Crude hovered around  $95 per barrel and has gotten as high as $110.  Friday’s close of $79.73 represents a short seller’s return of over 30% in less than nine … Read more

Something for Everyone Insider Buying Week 12-2-22

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Learn How You Can Become an Insider Too – Click Here For the first time in over a decade, fixed-income investors are enjoying reasonable returns.  The Fed seems intent on keeping rates high for longer than stock market participants might like, but it hasn’t yet done great damage to the hopes and fortunes of equity owners. What I mean by this is to look at the 10-year Treasury, the benchmark index which stock market returns are said to compete with.  The long-run average annual return of the stock market average is 7%-9% per annum. That still provides a measure of … Read more

Insider Buying Week 11-25-22 Cronos Group up in Smoke

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Learn How You Can Become an Insider Too – Click Here This is the best time of year to be invested, statistically speaking. Why that is, no one really knows for sure.  Perhaps it has something to do with animal spirits, people feeling good about themselves, others, who knows?  Animal spirits can’t be overrated.  People are more likely to bet on the future when they feel good about the present. This statistical stock market tailwind isn’t as strong in bear markets, though. The future for most people is just the day after tomorrow and doesn’t look that different than today.  … Read more

A Few Good Calls- Not Many More Prescient than Our April 21, 2022 post on Coinbase IPO

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We’ve had a few good calls and timely posts, but few more prescient than the April 21, 2021 If Bitcoin is a house of cards, then Coinbase is the clarion bell on the top of the house about to crumble post https://insomniachedge.com/2021/04/coinbase-if-bitcoin-is-a-house-of-cards-then-coin-is-the-clarion-bell-on-top-of-the-house-about-to-crumble/ Insider selling is not as good a predictor of future stock performance as insider buying, but when the selling comes in droves, I call it “rats leaving the ship.” That’s precisely what the Coinbase IPO was, rats leaving the ship What amazes me is that crypto enthusiasts clamor for regulation as the panacea for their woes. I think … Read more

Insider Buying Week 11-11-22 Inflation is Dead- The War is Over- The Dems hold the Line

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This week’s Insider Report marks the end of an experiment with a paid subscription service. From here on out the Insiders Report is free and I am relieved of my weekend chores. I’ll still continue to blog on insider buying and selling as my time permits. I’ve written numerous times that all bear markets in the last 20 years have ended with a crescendo of insider buying.  The number of insiders buying picked up dramatically last week some with household names like Boeing and CME Group.  There are finally some reasons to be hopeful that this miserable year of investing … Read more

Now it Should Get Interesting- The Fed has Finally Broken the Glass

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We’ve been railing frequently about the misguided efforts by the Fed to rein in inflation. After priming the pump way too long with zero interest rates, they have finally had their come to Jesus moment and now are furiously raising interest rates.  I believe this is very misguided, akin to economic criminal neglect if there were such a thing. Inflation is a complicated animal and certainly, some of the causes of this most current bout are based on things that the Fed has no control over.  For example: 1. We’ve been importing deflation for decades due to offshoring manufacturing in … Read more

Thoughts on Denver EnerCom 2022-Let the Good Times Roll

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I’ve been attending an annual oil and gas conference in Denver for several years and 2022 was unlike any event I’ve been to. I’m sure it was unlike any event EnerCom has seen in its 37 years as well. You have to remember that under the Trump administration the U.S. oil and gas industry got a flood of private and public capital thrown at it. It was overproducing, even when they were losing money on it.  When you’re losing money drilling for oil, the only solution was to drill for more of it.  The lower the price got, the more … Read more

”’re Working this Good

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I’ve bemoaned many a time in recent days about the dearth of insider buying. It’s a clear unambiguous end to any bear market of consequence when insiders back up the truck to buy their own company’s shares.  But that so rarely happens. It happened in the Fall of 2008-2009 and in March-May 2020, but most of the time, it’s not that way. No clear signals, just noise and maybe some good guessing from the chatter. Going back and rereading these blog posts about why I thought an insider was buying and how their transactions actually played out makes great stock … Read more

A Temporary Truce in the Alpha War Zone

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The Insiders Fund is having a relatively impressive year, 12% points better than the S&P 500.  While still down about 2% for the year, I’m convinced that we are close to running the table.  Why do I have this confidence? After more than twenty years of studying insider buying patterns, the safest and most reliable indicator of market bottoms is the insider buy/sell ratio. The proof is in the charts I am sharing here. Generational Buying Opportunites S&P 500 The blue/green line (insider buying) is rarely above the red line (the market). After all, insiders are natural sellers with so much of their … Read more

Private Equity to the Rescue

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Although the Insiders Fund looked like the best dog in the dog show in January, it was still a dog, losing a little less than 3%. February then proceeded to make January look like a walk in the park.  The most obvious answer to the time-old question, “how do you know you are in a bear market?” That’s simple. When all your longs are down and all your shorts are working.  For someone as obsessed as me about winning at this investing game, it was a small but sickening consolation. There was nothing really wrong with the losing positions in … Read more

Two High Conviction Insider Buys $EVRG and $EPD- Week 9-24-21

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For trade, details click on this link to the trades.    Name: Andrews Kirkland B Position: CFO Transaction Date: 2021-09-23  Shares Bought: 7,875 Average Price Paid: $63.67 Cost: $501,392 Name: Campbell David A Position: CEO Transaction Date: 2021-09-23  Shares Bought: 7,870 Average Price Paid: $63.66 Cost: $499,699 Company: Evergy Inc. (EVRG) Evergy is an American investor-owned utility (IOU) with publicly traded stock headquarters in Topeka, Kansas, and in Kansas City, Missouri. The company was formed from a merger of Westar Energy of Topeka and Great Plains Energy of Kansas City, Missouri, the parent company of Kansas City Power & Light. … Read more

Insiders have Conviction where the Market lacks it Buying FireEye $EYE

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  Every day at FireEye, we see firsthand the impact of cyber-attacks on real people. It inspires us to fulfill our mission to relentlessly protect our customers from the impact and consequences of cyberattacks. They have learned that technology alone isn’t enough to combat cyber attackers. Their fundamental belief is that hands-on frontline expertise and intelligence, combined with innovative technology, provides the best means to protect their customers from cyber threats. FireEye has created a unique learning system. their real-time knowledge of the threat landscape ensures that their offerings provide the best means to protect their customers. Their frontline expertise … Read more

Our Private Twitter Account and more about Bitcoin or better yet Bitcon

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The membership part of the blog, The Insiders Report, has been live now for a couple of months and seems to be functioning without causing me a lot of distraction.  My fiance told me the other night that the blog thing was way too long and complicated to have any commercial appeal. I’m not offended nor surprised.  I said to her, “Do you know who I write the blog for?  She nodded, knowing me, smiled, and said, “You? The blog always started as a way for me to write and gather my own thoughts.  It was and still is edutainment.  … Read more

‘s About Them Apples? Insiders Fund up 137% Trailing 12 Month Return

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We made 6x to 12x what we paid for SAVA in just two months   We just updated our one-month, three months, and twelve months return and were pleasantly surprised to see an eye-popping return of 137% for the trailing 12 months ending March. Some of that return can be credited to the general market.  The S&P 500 was up 56% but 81% of the Fund’s return was the excess return, in other words-alpha. The Insiders Fund performed admirably without taking excessive risks. We did this by concentrating our investment funds on our best ideas, not diversifying across dozens of … Read more

$DRIV Driven Brands – time to reload

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Insiders and hedge fund billionaires like Driven Brands. Driven Brands manages a family of automotive companies including MAACO, Meineke Car Care Centers, Merlin 200,000 Mile Shops, Pro Oil Change, Econo Lube & Tune, AutoQual, Aero-Colours, and Drive N Style. Collectively, the brands generate annual system revenues of approximately $1 billion through 1,500 locations in 50 states and 2 countries.  It’s a decent back-to-work play and reopening the economy but that’s probably not why insiders are buying it. Driven Brands DRVN just went public at $21 with a market cap of    Roark Capital, a private equity firm, bought Driven Brands … Read more