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Weekend Reading

WSJ With Its Stock Price Buffeted, Berkshire May Be a Bargain Warren Buffett likes cheap stocks. Right now, he doesn’t need to look far to find one. His company, Berkshire Hathaway, has slid in the last three months, making it … Read more.

Weekend Reading

According to www.livetradingnews.com US’s actual employment numbers not that bad The market was disappointed with Friday’s US employment data, but on a close look the actual total employment, as opposed to the widely reported seasonally adjusted numbers, was no near … Read more.

Chanos vs. China?

Svea Herbst-Bayliss and Matthew Goldstein of Reuters report, Top hedge fund chiefs: short green tech, store gems:
Bet against solar energy, says famed short seller James Chanos. Squirrel away gems, advises bond guru Jeffrey Gundlach. Go long on discount retailer Family Dollar, counsels activist investor Bill Ackman.

These and other hot — or unusual — ideas emerged on Wednesday from an annual conference where top hedge fund managers pitch their best investment ideas.

Chanos threw cold water on alternative energy companies, saying that shares in wind turbine maker Vestas Wind Systems and solar panel maker First Solar Inc likely will fall.

Arguing that alternative energy may not create the jobs politicians predict, Chanos said he would likely offend the green movement with his bets.

“The cost of wind is 50 percent more expensive than natural gas,” Chanos said, adding that Denmark-based Vestas would be a good company to bet against or sell short.

The environmental benefits of solar power are also questionable, he said.

Chanos said he is certain that he is on the right path on First Solar because top managers are leaving the company. “We advise you to heed their warnings,” he said, drawing both applause and laughter.

Ackman, who has cemented his reputation as a polite activist, said his new idea is on the passive side — indeed it is not even his own, but investor Nelson Peltz’s idea. He likes retailer Family Dollar Stores Inc for being accessible to shoppers and selling unique and inexpensive products.

While lagging behind chief rival Dollar General, its managers are trying to close the gap, and the company may be a buyout candidate for private equity firms, he said.

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More Spying on Elite Funds – Part 2

A follow-up to my last comment on spying on elite funds. We begin with an article by Naked Value on Seeking Alpha, Paulson & Co.’s Biggest Buy, Biggest Sell and Top Holdings. You’ll notice that unlike Dodge and Cox, Paulson & Co sold all their Pfizer shares, and initiated a new position in Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ).

Unlike Soros, Paulson & Co is still betting big on gold, owning a significant stake in SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and expects a continued recovery, and as such it thinks banks like Citigroup (C) will continue to benefit. The fund also owns Anadarko Petroleum Corp (APC) and Transocean Limited (RIG), which is the company Ontario Teachers’ bet on and made a bundle on.

Are you confused? Don’t be. You should be using the tools on the NASDAQ website to slice and dice the portfolios of these elite funds. For example, clicking on the % change in value header at the top of the fourth column will show you Paulson & Co’s new holdings (click on image to enlarge):

Note that apart from Hewlett-Packard mentioned above, Paulson & Co made a significant new investment in Weyerhaeuser (WY), buying up 31,700,200 shares during Q1 2011. Share prices for both companies are well off their highs, and if the fund did their homework, these could yield excellent returns going forward.

When analyzing 13F quarterly filings, it’s important to look at new holdings, not just top holdings. For example, looking at new holdings for Dodge and Cox which I neglected to do in my last comment, you’ll notice that they bought a significant stake in Motorola Mobility (MMI) and Microsoft (MSFT) during Q1 2011 (click on image to enlarge):

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Mid-Week Reads…

Linked-In, The Most Expensive Stock in America and that was pre 90% jump (Smart Money) Rating Agencies Face Crackdown (Dealbook) Earthquake and Aftermath Push Japan Into a Recession (NYT) Collateral Damage: the True Cost of a U.S. Default (Barron’s) Ten High-Conviction … Read more.

Second Automotive Fund Now Available

 

First Trust Advisors last week (5/10/11) introduced the First Trust NASDAQ Global Auto Index Fund (CARZ).  CARZ becomes the second fund to focus on the global automotive industry and the first in an ETF format.  The underlying index is a modified market capitalization weighted index of companies classified as automobile manufacturers.  The index caps the five largest stocks at 8% and all others at 4% during each quarterly rebalancing.

CARZ presently has 32 holdings, and the annual index reconstitution is scheduled for next month.  The ten largest stocks are Daimler AG (DDAIF) 7.9%, Ford Motor Company (F) 7.8%, General Motors Company (GM) 7.2%, Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) 7.1%, Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) 7.0%, Hyundai Motor Co. 5.2%, Kia Motors Corporation 5.0%, Volkswagen AG (VLKAY) 4.3%, Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BAMXY) 4.2%, and Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. (NSANY) 3.9%.

Nine countries are represented in the fund with Japan at 32.7%, Germany 20.2%, U.S. 17.7%, South Korea 9.9%, France 7.0%, China 5.2%, Italy 5.0%, Taiwan 1.4%, and Malaysia 1.0%.

Fidelity Select Automotive (FSAVX), the first automotive industry fund, was launched nearly 25 years ago in June 1986.  It limped along with assets under $40

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