The Insider Report

‘s Day Investment Survival Seminar

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Take your loved one to a Valentine’s Day Investment Survival Seminar Note, this is cheaper than a box of chocolates.  We buy lunch! In 2001, I started investing with the idea that I had to make a living out of it.  Now that’s a bold thought, providing for your family, a loving wife and two small boys from the vagaries of the stock market.  But I really didn’t have much choice.   I  had left the company that I had spent the last five years of my life building over a dispute on the future course of the business.   The job prospects … Read more

Bear markets begin in good times. Bull markets begin in bad times.

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By: Harvey Sax I haven’t been able to conclusively cite the origin of the above quote, ‘Bear markets begin in good times.  Bull markets begin in bad times’ but undoubtedly it was from an investor who survived the bear market.  The good news is that you can make money in any kind of market.  You can profit from the market rising or going down.  You can even make money in a market that doesn’t move at all. But what you can’t do is make money without a plan.  Ultimately you will only be successful by trading on your own ideas … Read more

Are You Aggressive or Conservative? Better Check Your Beta..

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By: Harvey Sax   A lot of that depends on the beta of your portfolio.  But before we get into all of that, let’s go over just what beta is. Stock Beta is a ratio that indicates how a stock fluctuates with relation to the market.  Beta is an indicator of market risk also called volatility.  When you research a stock, look at the beta to get an idea as to how choppy the returns on this stock will be with relation to the market.  If this doesn’t align with your risk tolerance, this stock may not be for you. … Read more

Greece: 20% Cut in Minimum Wage and 15,000 Public Sector Jobs Lost? Ouch..

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Prime Minister Papademos, Finance Minister Venizelos, and Greek Bank Governor Provopoulos are expected to sign a draft agreement to secure a $172 billion dollar rescue plan desperately needed by the insolvent country.  However a couple of stipulations in the document are sure to create backlash, specifically the large cut to the minimum wage and the loss of 15,000 public sector jobs. From Businessweek: Greece will pledge permanent spending cuts, including lower pension payments and a 20 percent reduction in the minimum wage, as the economy contracts this year at a faster pace than originally estimated, according to the draft of … Read more

Diamond Foods Now Cooks! …their books. CEO and CFO Out, Forced to Restate Earnings

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Diamond Foods is getting crushed after hours, (down over 43%) on the announcement that they, like an alarming number of corporations, have trouble following longstanding GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles).  According to their press release, a total of $80 million in payments to growers was not accounted for during the correct time periods.  In a sign of good faith, Michael J. Mendes and Steven M. Neil have been placed on administrative leave. From Diamond’s press release: “The Audit Committee has concluded that the Company’s financial statements for the fiscal years 2010 and 2011 will need to be restated. Over the course of … Read more

Do Your Homework and Stop Looking for the Easy Way Out

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The WSJ released an article last night on Nouriel Roubini, nicknamed Dr. Doom for his consistently bearish outlook that happened to accurately foresee the 2008 crisis.  Apparently, he’s changed his tune: “We’re a believer; we’re celebrating. We think the rally has legs,” said Gina Sanchez, Roubini’s director of equity and allocation strategy, and a contributor on CNBC. She tells us that Roubini’s firm currently recommends being overweight equities, playing cyclical areas of the market such as technology.  “Also we’d take some tilts into staples and telecom to collect yield. And we’d also be overweight ag and livestock. Generally we’d take … Read more

Like Bacon? And Milkshakes? And Getting Fat? Jack In The Box Has You Covered..

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Thanks to YouTube, I’ve seen some pretty corpulent culinary concoctions emerge from channels like Epic Meal Time.  It looks like Jack In The Box (symbol: JACK) is testing the waters of the fat laden phenomenon that’s sweeping the internet; trying to snare some of the free viral publicity for the fast food chain.  And with tens of millions of views per episode, who can blame them.  According to Business Insider, the Bacon Milkshake will be offered for a limited time and customers will have to whisper their order.  Vegetarians shouldn’t feel left out though, since the bacon flavoring is derived … Read more

Saudi Arabia Will Not Let Oil Go Above $100

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According to Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal al Saud, the billionaire head of Kingdom Holding Co., Saudi Arabia is poised to limit the appreciation of oil to no greater than $100 a barrel. “We can use our leverage, our excess capacity to be sure to pump more [oil] if needed so it will not impact the consumer countries while they’re getting out of their recessions slowly but surely,” the prince said. As for Iran, he said it is important for the U.S. and other nations to put sanctions on the “renegade country” to force its government to negotiate. Issuing an … Read more

A New Normal for Energy? – Deal Journal – WSJ

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A New Normal for Energy?   By Isabella Steger The energy landscape is changing fast with so-called “unconventional” forms fast becoming the new norm, says accounting firm Ernst & Young. Of the $317 billion worth of oil and gas deals struck in 2011, $66 billion were shale-related transactions, up from $55 billion the year before. That trend is set to continue, and at the expense of investment in traditional renewables, says Ernst & Young’s Asia-Pacific Oil & Gas Leader Sanjeev Gupta. Bloomberg News An employee holds a segment of Bowland Shale, from which shale gas can be extracted, in this … Read more

Falcone’s Harbinger Capital Hedge Fund Down 47% In 2011

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2011 was a brutal year for hedge funds, averaging a miserable -4% return for investors.  Billionaire Phil Falcone was no exception as his huge bet on LightSquared dragged performance down to a whopping -47% on the year. Most of the decline in the Harbinger Capital Partners Offshore Fund I came from Falcone’s investment in LightSquared Inc., which plans to offer high-speed data service to as many as 260 million people. The Reston, Virginia-based company is awaiting final clearance from the Federal Communications Commission as regulators weigh test results that show the service’s signals disrupt global-positional system equipment used by cars, … Read more

ETFs Are Going BATS … and Why You Should Care!

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Contributor Post By: Ron Rowland The ETF marketplace changed last month.  You didn’t notice?  Don’t worry, you’re not alone.  Today I’ll tell you all about it. You already know that “exchange traded funds” trade on an exchange.  That’s what distinguishes them from old-fashioned mutual funds.  But what exchange trades them, and where is it? For some new iShares, the answer isn’t New York or Chicago.  Their trading hub is Lenexa, Kansas.  Let me explain … Exchange Floors No Longer Needed For most people, the term “stock exchange” brings to mind images of noisy rooms filled with men in colorful jackets, … Read more

Coinstar Jumps Over 12% on Earnings

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Proof that consumers still love a physical product, Coinstar (owner of Redbox) rocketed over twelve percent in after hours trading.  The jump is attributed to a strong earnings report detailing 33% growth in revenue, a dollar of EPS in the fourth quarter, and estimated 2.2 billion in 2012 revenue.  This is in conjunction with the freshly announced partnership with Verizon, marking the dvd sellers first venture into the online streaming industry.  Redbox still manages to sell more DVDs than Netflix, but Netflix has the jump on the online industry.  They already spend over 1.2 billion a year on streaming content.

| UTAH SECURITIES FRAUD

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Thinking of investing in a hedge fund? Here are some tips for sniffing out potential fraud. Posted on March 15, 2011 by Mark Pugsley This is the text of a terrific article that appeared in the Wall Street Journal yesterday about how to sniff out potential fraud in a hedge fund: Danger! Danger! Thinking of investing in a hedge fund? Here are some tips for sniffing out potential fraud. By ROB CURRAN In the age of Madoff, small investors are rightfully leery of hedge funds with eye-popping returns and a low profile. But how do you size up the risk of fraud? via … Read more

With Iran Offline, Oil Could Jump 30%

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Despite our massive emergency oil reserves (see here), the IMF estimates a halt in Iran crude could produce a rather dramatic effect in the price of oil: “If Iran halts exports to countries without offsets from other sources it would likely trigger an “initial” oil price jump of 20 to 30 percent, or about $20 to $30 a barrel, the IMF said in its first public comment on a possible Iranian oil supply disruption.” “Financial sanctions against Tehran may be ‘tantamount to an oil embargo’ and would imply supply declines of about 1.5 million barrels per day from the world’s … Read more

Dominion Resources- primed to dominate

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Dominion Resources, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in producing and transporting energy in the United States. It operates in three segments: DVP, Dominion Generation, and Dominion Energy. The DVP segment includes regulated electric transmission and distribution operations that serve residential, commercial, industrial, and governmental customers in Virginia and North Carolina. There are a few reasons why Dominion is set to dominate.     Dominion Resources, (D) operates in the all important corridor of power, the Washingon DC Virginia suburbs where unemployment and recession are largely absent  because of the growth of Government.  Besides what better recession resistant business is there than … Read more

Fresh Off an Insider Trading Charge, Did Einhorn Sandbag Green Mountain?

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Up 21% after hours yesterday and finishing today almost 24% from yesterday’s close, it certainly seems that Green Mountain Coffee Rosters isn’t the dark and gloomy picture that David Einhorn painted in his 110 slide presentation released on October 17th of last year (presentation here).  To his credit, he makes some strong points as to GMCRs difficulties with free cash flow.  However, with several important patents on the K-cup design expiring this year, the company is defensively spending money to acquire competitors and protect the market share.  This is in conjunction with large scale research and design efforts to roll … Read more

WATCH: Facebook’s $200 Million Graffiti Artist

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WATCH: Facebook’s $200 Million Graffiti Artist Posted by Jackie Cohen on February 2nd, 2012 12:58 PM David Choe, the graffiti artist who covered Facebook’s walls took compensation in the form of stock currently worth $200 million, and the value of it is getting him a lot of ink. Videos of Choe are also getting more views than ever, especially footage showing the artist incorporating a pair of stick figures that the Mark Zuckerberg put up on one of the walls at the Menlo Park headquarters. We’ve embedded three clips of Choe’s work at Facebook below. Let us know what you … Read more

12 Rules Stockpickers Live By

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The Magellan Fund has never been as strong and consistent a performer after Peter Lynch left the helm.  There are many postulates as to why this is the case.  I am going to introduce a new one.  Few believe Berkshire will be the same after Buffett.  In fact those trying to imitate Buffett’s style now have paled in comparison.  I believe that just like the two investors shared some things in common, one thing they shared that the market has failed to appreciate is that both investors constantly changed, they evolved and their styles of investing encompassed many and broad … Read more

‘s Kung Fu Grip, One Finger at a Time..

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Remember when China, producer of 95% of all the world’s rare earths, sent shockwaves through the rare earth markets by announcing a 40% reduction in rare earth production (seen here), and further stoked the fire by “mysteriously halting” all exports of the commodity (seen here) in a retaliatory effort against Japan?  While China’s grasp strengthens while Western economies flail, Malaysia sees opportunity in offering some relief from restrictions by the erratic and opaque Chinese government.  According to the NYTimes, regulators have granted an initial operating license to an immense refinery specializing in rare earth production.  Although this is just the first of … Read more

Kass: 10 Reasons to Rally – TheStreet

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Kass: 10 Reasons to Rally By Doug Kass 01/10/12 – 02:20 PM ESTAdd Comment This commentary originally appeared Jan. 10 at 8:45 a.m. EST on Real Money Pro — for access to all of legendary hedge fund manager Doug Kass’ strategies and commentary, click here.   NEW YORK (RealMoneyPro) — I have rarely been accused of being an economic/stock market cheerleader, but I believe the U.S. stock market will surprise to the upside in the near term for the following fundamental, technical and sentiment reasons: via Kass: 10 Reasons to Rally – TheStreet.   I’m not one to mimic others … Read more

Facebook Under Fire as it Approaches IPO

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I’m sick of Facebook.  The name makes me cringe every time the talking heads on CNBC spout out the same regurgitated facts; all too reminiscent of Armani  clad penguins feeding vast fields of their young.  Regardless, here’s some news that might  get a smile out of your spiteful inner self: lawsuits against the social media giant are rapidly piling up as we near the initial public offering.  No, the company didn’t decided to go on one last rampant crime spree just before going public.  It’s the scent of money in the air that drives the shoals of patent lawyers into … Read more

What Does a Third Carrier Battle Group in the Gulf Mean?

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Having already recently warned the US (Jan 3), Iran is certainly not going to appreciate the addition of a third Carrier Battle Group around the Strait of Hormuz which was announced yesterday on Navaltoday.com. Generally a Battle Group makes for a bit of a procession.  Although it varies depending on the mission, the structure of a Group generally consists of: the aircraft carrier itself, two offensive guided-missle cruisers to engage land targets, two destroyers for defensive maneuvers against submarines and aircraft, a frigate to protect from submarine attacks, two submarines also for defensive purposes, and a supply ship to provide support … Read more

‘t Lose It!

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Just Dont Lose It!By KOPIN TAN | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHORMore than ever, investors want advisors and money managers to preserve their capital. So how can you make your wealth grow?ArticleComments 4EmailPrintReprints smallerLargerWhen stocks recently hit a six-month high, U.S. Trusts chief investment officer, Christopher Hyzy, expected to hear from investors eager to buy more shares. Instead, calls came in from clients who wanted to know if they should take profits, or how they could protect their winnings following the Standard & Poors 500s quick 20% jump to break through 1300. via Investors Just Want Their Principal Back – Barrons.com.

Like Herding Cats? Try Trading Oil

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Today’s rampant fluctuation in oil was a perfect example of how much political and headline risk from Iran surround the markets.  While nothing fundamental has changed from our initial assessment of the Iran situation seen here, all it took was Iran reiterating they are pissed and the IEA emphasizing to the EU that reserves exist for a reason. NEW YORK—Iran’s threat to immediately halt oil sales to the European Union pushed prices above $101 a barrel, but crude retreated after the International Energy Agency later said it could release strategic inventories if a supply emergency occurred.  Light, sweet crude oil for … Read more

The Roof Has Been Raised: $16.4 Trillion Debt Ceiling

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Well, it’s looking like  the Senate was unable to muster enough votes to reject the newest debt ceiling hike in a 52 to 44 vote.  Due to take effect this Friday, we will be looking at a new ceiling of $16.4 trillion with our current levels reaching the $15.4 trillion mark. From Zerohedge: “Since roughly $100 billion was plundered from Pension Funds in the past month, The US will have about $15.4 trillion in debt with the Monday DTS. The question then is how long will the $1 trillion in debt capacity last: at $125 billion/month it won’t be enough … Read more

Some interesting numbers on Netflix

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As the subscription based online movie provider soars as high as 15% in after hours trading on a decidedly positive earnings report, some investors are left scratching their heads.  While the company has shown an impressive rebound of 38% since touching on it’s 52 week low of 64.54 a share, the upward correction seems to lack a real catalyst.  In their trademark no-nonsense style, Zerohedge took a closer look at the hard data (spreadsheet can be downloaded here ) and found some interesting points.. Netflix generated $33.9MM in “Free Cash Flow”. Of this $25.6MM was from change in Net Working Capital; this compares … Read more

‘s not hard, just follow the Dividend..

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For those of you long AAPL yesterday, the paltry 6% or so gain on the most impressive numbers that we’ve seen to date from the tech giant were a bit depressing.  The fact that every single metric that analysts provided estimates on was completely blown out of the water combined with the $7 drop in share price before the announcement only reinforces the fact that both analysts and the street had no idea how profoundly astounding Apple’s results would be.  So why doesn’t the market seem to reflect similar sentiment?  One word: Dividends.  With over $17 trillion in qualified retirement … Read more