The Insider Report

Super spike may lead to super correction

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Looking at this chart makes one think that what goes up must come down. Is it possible that the super spike in oil prices has come to an end due to  greater fuel efficient driven by CAFE standards and technological breakthroughs like horizontal drilling and fracking?  Are we going to undergo a long period of moderate to sharply declining crude prices?  Look at the Case-Shiller Home Price Indices during the same period.  There is some correlation but crude went up a far greater percentage.  Is this all emerging market demand and supply issues?  Is there more speculation than meets the … Read more

U.S. Luxury Real Estate Courts the Chinese Buyer – WSJ.com

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Courting the Chinese Buyer Buyers from China are pouring billions into residential property—and developers are courting them with everything from feng shui to lucky numbers.   By LAUREN A. E. SCHUKER A new wave of buyers from China is snapping up luxury properties across the U.S., injecting billions of dollars into the country’s residential real-estate market. Lauren Schuker has details on Lunch Break. Photo: Erhard Pfieffer. A new wave of buyers from China is snapping up luxury properties across the U.S., injecting billions of dollars into the country’s residential-real-estate market. The industry is scrambling to court the new buyers. Some … Read more

Tempur-Pedic, TPX scores 3 on the checklist. Stock has been beat up and could present a great buying opportunity on a good company

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CHART- know how to read charts. I firmly believe I can improve the price of buying or selling from an understanding of chart action. Stock is very oversold; +1   ANALYSTS- read analyst reports but come to your own conclusions. 4 strong buy, 10 hold (according to CNBC); -1   INSIDERS- if the people that know the company the best are not buying it, why should you? Chairman purchased 112,000 shares at $25.02 on 6/8/12, director purchased 4,500 shares at $23.60 on 6/15/12; +1   MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION 10Q AND 10K- this is the only truthful thing you will read about a company. It’s composed … Read more

Oil Stocks Biggest Losers With Valuations Lowest Since 2009 – Bloomberg

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Oil Stocks Biggest Losers With Valuations Lowest Since 2009 By Lu Wang – Jun 24, 2012 10:53 PM MT Facebook Share   At a time of record fuel demand, bountiful oil and natural gas, and expanding economies, no stocks are doing worse in the world than energy producers from BP Plc to Hess (HES) Corp. The MSCI World Energy Index (MXWO) has declined 9.6 percent this year, more than any other group, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The gauge has climbed 45 percent since equities bottomed in 2009, less than any industry with earnings tied to economic growth. In … Read more

U.S. Banks Aren’t Nearly Ready for Coming European Crisis – Bloomberg

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U.S. Banks Aren’t Nearly Ready for Coming European Crisis By Simon Johnson Jun 24, 2012 4:30 PM MT The author, an MIT Professor is especially negative on JP Morgan.  This is an interesting read to go along with Jamie Dimon’s command performance in front of Congress last week. via U.S. Banks Aren’t Nearly Ready for Coming European Crisis – Bloomberg.

Romney Donors Get Access, and Face Time, at Utah Retreat – Bloomberg

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Romney Donors Get Access, and Face Time, at Utah Retreat By Lisa Lerer – via Romney Donors Get Access, and Face Time, at Utah Retreat – Bloomberg. I didn’t recognize anyone on Mid Mountain trail today.  The attendees must have been too hungover to go mountain bike riding. It’s either a sad commentary on American politics when you can buy acccess to either Republican or Democratic Presidents or just more proof we are increasingly an egalitarian society when you can do this for just $50,000 per head.

Now that oil has dropped 20% and many stocks even more- Raymond James goes negative

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RAJA 07:09 EDT SPN theflyonthewall.com: Superior Energy downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James Raymond James downgraded shares based on lower 2013 U.S. land rig count assumptions and a bearish view on oil prices. Price target lowered to $25.50 from $37. :theflyonthewall.com 07:09 EDT PTEN theflyonthewall.com: Patterson-UTI Energy downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James Raymond James downgraded shares based on lower 2013 U.S. land rig count assumptions and a bearish view on oil prices. Price target lowered to $19 from $21. :theflyonthewall.com 07:09 EDT ORIG theflyonthewall.com: Ocean Rig UDW downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond … Read more

The two most important charts in the world right now

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Spanish Government 10 yr. Bond   Italian Government 10 yr. Bond Watch these two yields on Bloomberg. If they blow out, you can expect stocks to come down, the dollar to rise, oil goes down, and financial contagion spreads.  It’s as simple as that.  Why Spain and Italy matter so much to the world is just another example of how global financial systems are too complexly intertwined Soros and Buffet are both right; credit default swaps should be banned.  That would be one easy step for governments to do to begin to surgically repair the circulation back to the banking … Read more

LSI Corporation scores 2 on our checklist; Strong Q1 results with the acquisition of SandForce

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CHART- know how to read charts. I firmly believe I can improve the price of buying or selling from an understanding of chart action.  No sign of a turnaround yet; -1   ANALYSTS- read analyst reports but come to your own conclusions. 4 strong buy, 6 buy, 2 hold, 1 sell (according to CNBC); +1   INSIDERS- if the people that know the company the best are not buying it, why should you? Independent director Charles Haggerty recently purchased 40,000 shares at a price of $6.93-$8.07; +1   MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION 10Q AND 10K- this is the only truthful thing you will read about a … Read more

Chevron ex-CEO sees U.S. oil imports for next 20 years – Yahoo! Finance

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PALO ALTO, California #Reuters# – David O’Reilly, the former head of Chevron Corp #CVX#, believes the United States will be importing oil for at least the next two decades despite a recent surge in domestic production from newly developed shale basins. While O’Reilly was upbeat about the potential for supplying enough natural gas and coal for U.S. electricity, he said the country should worry about its transportation system given its reliance on oil – barring a technological breakthrough. via Chevron ex-CEO sees U.S. oil imports for next 20 years – Yahoo! Finance.

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Everyone thinks there will be some kind of stimulus  but I think this is becoming a sideshow to the real fact.  There is a global bank run underway. Stimulus will have no effect on that.  The 1 trillion euro  LTRO operation the ECB  undertook basically gave foreign creditors the liquidity to sell their sovereign bonds to the Spanish, French, Italian banks that were compelled by the their respective governments to buy the debt. The recent $100 billion euro Spanish bank bailout was more of the same and the financial markets saw right thru it. Spanish borrowing costs are higher  today … Read more

‘s 2012 Midyear Roundtable – Barrons.com

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I read Barron’s roundtable religiously.  It’s the most interesting thing in the whole magazine and comes out twice per year.  Before I read it though, I print out the past recommendations and not just for the past period.  The guru that has been generally more right than wrong is Felix Zulauf.  He says plan for a complete financial global breakdown.  That’s shocking. Betting on the end of the world is generally not a good bet but it only takes being wrong once.   FELIX ZULAUF Is there a good word from Europe? ZULAUF: Adjusted for inflation, Italy trades at levels … Read more

”s Summer not Fall.

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Everyone is nervous about Europe.  Me too.  I have no way of knowing how much of this is already priced in the market.  You’d have to say a lot based on the violent reaction in the oil patch, some European markets but  I don’t see any positive outcome from this weekend vote in Greece.  If they vote to  keep the austerity demands in place, brief rally and the market will soon say the economy is just going to at best muddle along and at worse, be right back at the  bread line. On the other hand if they abandon austerity, … Read more

Silicon Valley Faces Private Sanity Check – WSJ.com

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Silicon Valley Faces Private Sanity Check By ROLFE WINKLER A wave of sanity is washing over Silicon Valley after Facebook’s FB +3.00% listing debacle, and that may be bad news for private companies looking to raise money. Suddenly, investors seem to care about business fundamentals again. Instagram surfed the wave perfectly. Despite having no revenue, it sold itself to Facebook for cash and stock currently worth $920 million. But the new focus on fundamentals makes it trickier for hot start-ups like Twitter,LivingSocial and Square to justify the peppy private valuations they have recently received or are seeking. via Silicon Valley Faces … Read more

| ZeroHedge

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Spain IS Greece After All: Here Are The Main Outstanding Items Following The Spanish Bailout Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/09/2012 14:52 -0400 Bank Run Bond Bridgewater CDS Creditors European Central Bank Eurozone Germany Greece Gross Domestic Product Ireland Italy National Debt Nationalization Portugal Sovereign Debt After two years of denials, we finally have the right answer: Spain IS Greece. Only much bigger. So now that the European bailout has moved from Greece, Ireland and Portugal on to the big one, Spain, here are the key outstanding questions.   via Spain IS Greece After All: Here Are The Main Outstanding … Read more

Ackman, Loeb, other hedge funds lose in May – CNBC

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Ackman, Loeb, other hedge funds lose in May Published: Wednesday, 6 Jun 2012 | 6:44 PM ET Text Size   BOSTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) – May’s stock market rout dealt a blow to many on Wall Street including several big hedge fund stars whose bets on prominent U.S. companies looked badly timed. Even William Ackman and Daniel Loeb, two of the $2 trillion industry’s most respected players, failed to escape last month’s sharp sell-off and finished May in the red. Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management lost 7 percent, dropping more than the Standard & Poor’s 500 index’s 6 percent decline. Loeb’s … Read more

Form Worst To First – S&| ZeroHedge

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Form Worst To First – S&P Has Best Day Of 2012 Shortly After Worst Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/06/2012 16:17 -0400 Ben Bernanke Copper High Yield Investment Grade SPY Three days after posting its biggest single-day loss in seven months, it makes perfect sense in this nonsensical market for the S&P 500 e-mini futures to post their best gain in six months (a 4-sigma drop to a 3-sigma gain). Volume was heavy (and we note came in size at the end). Financials went berserk with MS and BofA ripping around 8% higher along with Energy and Industrials all up … Read more

| Buffett: chance of double dip U.S. recession very low – Rough Cuts

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No one has a better network than Warren Buffett so he is the economist I pay most attention to. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett, speaking to the Economic Club of Washington, said he believed the chances of a U.S. recession were very low unless the euro zone crisis develops in ways that ”spill over [in the United States] big time.” Buffett, speaking to Carlyle Group CEO David Rubenstein, said he favored a federal budget plan with revenues at 19% of GDP and spending at 21%. (June 6, 2012) via Reuters TV | Buffett: chance of double dip U.S. recession very low … Read more

‘s too expensive to leave

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I’ve been struggling with a metaphor to describe the state of affairs in Europe.  I’ve got it now.  It’s a bad marriage .  All parties now realize they’d be better off ending it except they can’t afford the divorce.  At some point, my guess is that Germany answers the question, “Why are euro divorces so expensive?  Because they’re worth it.” or do they just learn to live together and make the best of it.  I don’t know the German psyche well enough to answer that one.  Perhaps one of our readers will hazard a guess?

HAL, Halliburton revisit. Stock looks very undervalued

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After re-doing the valuation on Halliburton and refining the inputs to the DCF model, the stock looks like it has even more potential upside with a new intrinsic value of $63.24, representing a 117% upside from the current price level.  The energy sector has been hit hard lately and looks like it is about to bottom out.  Look for bullish divergence in the near future for a strong buy opportunity.  See our post from April 11 for the rest of the checklist.  saxangle.com/2012/04/hal-halliburton-company-snapshot/  

VOCS, Vocus scores -1 on the checklist. Potential acquisition candidate.

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                  CHART- know how to read charts. I firmly believe I can improve the price of buying or selling from an understanding of chart action.  Recent Bearish Divergence; -1   ANALYSTS- read analyst reports but come to your own conclusions. 5 strong buys and 5 holds (according to CNBC); 0   INSIDERS- if the people that know the company the best are not buying it, why should you? Lead independent director Kevin Burns has made 3 purchases since May 7 totaling 20,000 shares at a price range of $15.27-$16.15. Chairman and CEO Rudman has made 2 … Read more

Headline risk seems to overload indicators

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As a trader, I look at charts to try and understand crowd behavior.  The headlines make me want to sell everything and hide under a rock until this euro mess is sorted out once and for all.  When I look at the charts, though, I see a different picture.  The S&P 500, DJI, and Russell 2000 all looked extremely oversold and short term bullish divergence on the shorter term RSI line.  Based on the horrendous price action in May though I suspect that it will take a while for the snap back to materialize.  The Russell 2000 is significantly below … Read more

Soros says Europe has three months to avoid catastrophe

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I don’t pretend to know what’s going to happen but I’ve said many times, the world would be much better off without the euro.  For reasons beyond my comprehension, the Europeans seem hell bent on keeping it.  Perhaps this speech from George Soros will make it clearer to you. Remarks at the Festival of Economics, Trento Italy June 2nd  

‘t be for a long time if ever

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  As of 2011, approximately 89 million barrels of oil and liquid fuels were consumed per day worldwide. That works out to nearly 32 billion barrels a year. Where is the bulk of oil demand growth going to come from? In the next five years, almost half of global oil demand growth will come from China according to the IEA, and this trend is set to continue to 2035 as oil demand from the transportation sector is growing strongly in countries such as China and India. In contrast, oil demand among OECD countries is expected to decline over the next … Read more

FOSL, Fossil scores 5 on our checklist

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CHART- know how to read charts. I firmly believe I can improve the price of buying or selling from an understanding of chart action. Continues to stabilize after recent pullback and could be poised for a jump; +1   ANALYSTS- read analyst reports but come to your own conclusions. 3 Strong buy, 5 buy and 4 hold (according to CNBC); +1   INSIDERS- if the people that know the company the best are not buying it, why should you? CFO, and other key directors purchased a total of 9800 shares at a price range of $72.86-$80.01 during the month of May 2012; +1 … Read more

RRTS, Roadrunner Transportation Systems socres 7 on the checklist

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CHART- know how to read charts. I firmly believe I can improve the price of buying or selling from an understanding of chart action. No trends defined.  Looked as though it was poised for a rebound but has been kept down by the market; 0   ANALYSTS- read analyst reports but come to your own conclusions. 4 strong buy, 2 buy, 1 hold (according to CNBC); +1   INSIDERS- if the people that know the company the best are not buying it, why should you? CEO Scott Rued purchased 30,000 shares at 17.41 on February 10, 2012; +1   MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION 10Q AND … Read more

Technical Rally

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My indicators are showing bullish divergence on all of the major future markets.  We could have a very tradable rally here in spite of the ugly headlines.  As is always the case, how much is being priced in is key to the analysis.  The market now is poised to react violently to the upside with a whiff of good news.