Insomniac Hedge Fund Guy

‘s Monster Quake

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  The Economic Impact of Japan’s Monster Quake 45 comments  |  by: Darrel Whitten March 13, 2011  | about: AFL, EWJ, FUJHY.PK, FXY, HMC, JXHLY.PK, MRAAY.PK, NSANY.PK, PC, SHECY.PK, SNE, SWCEY.PK, TKOMY.PK, TM, TOSBF.PK       The largest natural disaster in Japan’s modern history began with a massive quake with a magnitude of 8.9~9.0 in the Pacific Ocean seabed off the coast of Sendai, north of Tokyo. The effect of this earthquake was like dropping a boulder the size of the Isle of Wight, the largest island in the U.K., into the ocean. It was up to 1,000 times more powerful than … Read more

Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) NYSE: Live Trading calls it a Strong Buy

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Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) NYSE:SLW a Strong Buy Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) NYSE:SLW has been upgraded to a strong buy with a 2012 price target of $43 issued today by Shayne Heffernan. Silver Wheaton Corp. announced that it forecast fiscal 2011 attributable production is 27-28 million silver equivalent ounces, including 15,000 ounces of gold. By 2015, annual attributable production is anticipated to increase significantly to approximately 43 million silver equivalent ounces, including 35,000 ounces of gold. The Company also announced that its Board of Directors has declared its second quarterly cash dividend payment for 2011 of USD0.03 per common share. … Read more

Fed Officials Told to Shut Up

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Fed Officials Told to Shut Up New US Fed rules clamp down on “Chatty” officials The US Federal Reserve, in a push to control the often wayward communications of its top officials, issued detailed rules Tuesday dictating what they can and cannot do. The US Fed has come under fire for speaking with a dissonant voice and sometimes allowing details of its highly market-sensitive policy meetings to leak to the media or former staffers. “To the fullest extent possible, Committee participants will refrain from describing their personal views about monetary policy in any meeting or conversation with any individual, firm, … Read more

‘s Burgeoning Debt Crisis Hits Markets Around the Globe – Barrons.com

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Once again, it’s the PIIGS. For the past year, the focus on eurozone’s debt crisis has been on the PIGS — Portugal, Ireland and especially Greece, plus Spain. But the crash in Italy’s bonds has put the second I back in that acronym. Global markets shuddered in reaction because, in the words of Goldman Sachs Asset Management head Jim O’Neill, “neither the euro area nor possibly the rest of the world can afford a full-blown Italian bond crisis.” Or as Nomura Securities foreign exchange strategist Jens Nordvig pithily asserts: Italy is too big to bail. The slide in the prices … Read more

‘t use the stock as their own piggybank.

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Atmel’s dominance of the capacitive touch screen controller market Contributed by Jerico Garcia and Sam Thumm 2010 and 2011 have seen a rise in popularity in consumer electronics devices like tablets, smartphones, and e-book readers. Many of these hot, new products also feature a relatively new way for consumers to engage with the user interface: touch screens. One manufacturer benefitting greatly from the rise in popularity of touch screens has been Atmel, with capacitive touch solutions being Atmel’s runaway winner in growth performance last year. In its first year of production alone, Atmel’s maXTouchTM touch screen controller product line cornered … Read more

Call us paranoid

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Call us paranoid but we still see some of that “deer in the headlights” look from Chairman Bernanke in recent public appearances.  After all why shouldn’t he be concerned? Unemployment appears to be intractable, the national deficit is in arithmetic realms never before seen and the remedy for its correction in the hands of Congress who seem more like a squabbling couple in divorce court than elected representatives.  Furthermore the housing bubble collapse appears to have been replaced by an even bigger bubble, sovereign nation debt defaults.  Buying more house than you can afford appears to be a relatively trivial … Read more

Harvest Natural Resources VP buys 44,600 shares in May. Why?

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This extract is taken directly from the 10k   Is there a connection to the recent headline from the WSJ PetroVietnam Eyes Conoco’s Vietnam Assets WAB-21, South China Sea General           In December 1996, we acquired a petroleum contract with China National Offshore Oil Corporation (“CNOOC”) for the WAB-21 area. The WAB-21 petroleum contract covers 6.2 million acres in the South China Sea, with an option for an additional 1.25 million acres under certain circumstances, and lies within an area which is the subject of a border dispute between China and Socialist Republic of Vietnam (“Vietnam”). Vietnam has executed an agreement on a portion of … Read more

‘s‬‏

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Buffett is often quoted as saying he likes to buy a business good enough that any idiot can run because eventually one will.  As it turns out Buffett got that nugget from Peter Lynch and this is the proof of it.  Watch this interesting video of Buffett being Buffett. Warren Buffett – How to Identify a Good Investment In many ways you won’t find two dissimilar famous investors as Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett. Buffett invests in a concentrated way often saying things like the odds of your tenth best idea being as good as your first is low. Or … Read more

Weekend Reading

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Lords of Finance

As a rule, I don’t post weekend reading that I think is just interesting but only stuff that I think can make you money or save you money or stimulate you to do one or the other.  But the book I’m reading is so well written, I had to share it.  I don’t know how it will make us money other than to provide some historical perspective.  We live in an unusually precarious economic world.  It’s not unprecidented.  In fact it shares some remarkable patterns with the Roaring Twenties, the Great Depression, and the inflationary/deflationary spirals leading up to WWII.

http://www.economist.com/node/18928514

 

 

The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strateg...
Exorbitant Privilege : The Rise and Fall o...
Endgame: The End of the Debt SuperCycle and How...

I can’t honestly say I read these four books over the weekend but I did download samples to both my Kindle and iPad.  I am “listening” to Lords of Finance.  That’s from my Audible account. I’m listening to more books these days as I prefer to soak up my mountain biking, exercise, walking the dogs time listening to books and podcasts.

Lords of Finance is a fascinating read ( I mean listen). It’s an important work of economic history that covers a period of time between World War I and the events that led up to the most horrific time in mankind’s history, WWII.  I think it’s really important to understand what economic collapse can do to nations and individual’s psyches.   Of course, history doesn’t repeat itself, it rhymes and that’s why this link to some words from the author himself are interesting: What is quite shocking to me is how as a country we have gone from the creditor to the world to the lead borrower.  Historical context of this leads me to the conclusion that nothing good will come of this and perhaps something very bad indeed will result from it.  Lords of Finance will be our book of the month selection in July as soon as I can find some time to put it up.

Amazon Exclusive: Liaquat Ahamed on the Economic Climate

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Where are the insiders?

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There is always a blackout period before earnings when insiders are forbidden to buy or sell their own stock.  Usually this is a 45 day period before earnings and 24-48 hours afterwards.  The idea is that by the end of the quarter insiders have a good idea of what their companies are going to earn and to avoid trading on this knowledge most companies impose a black-out period in which insiders are forbidden to trade the companies’ stock. The exact days and trading windows differ slightly from company to company as they are based on an interpretation of SEC rules. The last two … Read more

Jobs Data Have Rebound Rabbit Stuck in Hat – WSJ.com

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I agree with the message but not the conclusion.  Yes, the economy is in the doldrums.  It’s really quite pathetic.  That doesn’t mean though I am totally pessimistic on stocks.  At the moment we are less than half invested,, mostly in cash but that can and hopefully will change soon.  I do think stocks have little competition.  Real estate investing is scary, the bond market offers negative real rates, and money must go somewhere.  That in part explains why some companies that have decent growth are getting indecent P.E. multiples HEARD ON THE STREET: Jobs Data Have Rebound Rabbit Stuck … Read more

Another promiment bear joins Chanos in China bashing

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Shilling: China Heading for a Hard Landing, Pt. 4 China’s Future, Part 4 Illustration by Jonathan Zawada By A. Gary Shilling Jun 29, 2011 6:57 PM MT 4 Comments     Past performance, in China’s case, may be indicative of future results. In late 2007, the Chinese government was scrambling to control a capital-spending boom. The central bank was concerned about 11 percent growth in gross domestic product, far above its official target of 8 percent, and about money flooding in from exports and direct foreign investment. By Nov. 1, the People’s Bank of China had raised its one- year … Read more

One of my favorite tools- and its free!

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Announcing Valuing a Stock 2 – 10 Principles of Finance!! Buy ValuePro Stock Valuation Software!! ValuePro is our new easy-to-use stock valuation program that interacts with our online valuation service.  Now you can download data from our web site to your computer and use ValuePro to analyze your investments. The price is only $44.95.  Please see our Guide to the ValuePro Software for an in-depth description. Try our online stock valuation service.  Enter the stock symbol, click on the Get Baseline Valuation button, and we do the rest. The inputs used to value the stock are updated periodically.  You can … Read more

IMF warns US of global debt ‘shock’ – FT.com

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June 29, 2011 5:57 pm IMF warns US of global debt ‘shock’ By James Politi in Washington The International Monetary Fund has warned of a “severe shock” to global financial markets if the US does not move quickly to increase its borrowing authority, adding pressure on Congress and the White House to clinch a deal on fiscal policy. In its annual report on US economic policy, the IMF cited “unfavourable fiscal outcomes” as one of the main dangers to the country’s economic outlook. More On this story Obama warns debt ceiling vote critical Insight Default prospect not focusing minds In … Read more

‘s $14 Billion Mortgage Settlement Should Boost Stock – Barrons.com

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Barron’s Take | WEDNESDAY, JUNE 29, 2011 BofA Settlement a Bullish Turn By TERESA RIVAS | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR Saying it has set aside $14 billion for mortgage-related claims, Bank of America has removed a major longstanding hurdle. Article Comments (5) + text size − print email Share more Twittertwitter DiggDigg Facebookfacebook LinkedinLinkedIn StumbleuponStumbleUpon YBuzzYahoo! Buzz MySpaceMySpace Deliciousdel.icio.us NewsVineNewsVine MixxMixx reprints get rss “The past is never dead. It’s not even past.” Faulkner’s words referred to a fallen Southern belle, but could just as easily apply to Bank of America, which continues to pay for its past sins during … Read more

Is it time to short Lululemon?

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It might be.  According to this article from Live Trading News, Lulemon is going to face some  strong competition from Green AppleYoga News, Lululemon, Green AppleLululemon the Vancouver-based yogawear retailer expects to hit $1 billion in revenue during fiscal 2012, as productivity at its U.S. stores, once a cause for concern among investors, climbs closer to that seen in its highly profitable Canadian outlets.While Lululemon’s sales have soared along with its share price, investors have been concerned that competition might start to slow its ascent.“We’re not feeling it or seeing it on a global basis or even store by store,” … Read more

‘re all Greek tomorrow

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Tomorrow by the time many of us wake up, the Greek Parliament will have approved the budget with its mandated austerity cuts or they will have voted it down.  If they vote it down, analysts, pundits, and market players seem universal in their opinion that something very bad and unknown, cataclysmic  and systemic will happen to the global financial system.   That almost certainly means that nothing so terrible as the predicted financial fall out will take place. On the other hand if nothing terrible happens in the days following the no vote, there is a good chance that the Greek … Read more

‘s Bill Gross on Stocks, Bonds, Greek Crisis – Video – Bloomberg

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Pimco’s Bill Gross on Stocks, Bonds, Greek Crisis inShare3 More EmailJune 21 Bloomberg — Bill Gross, manager of the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., talks about investing in equities versus bonds and the Greek debt crisis. Gross speaks with Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt on Bloomberg Radio’s “Surveillance.” This is an excerpt. Source: Bloomberg via Pimco’s Bill Gross on Stocks, Bonds, Greek Crisis – Video – Bloomberg.

Soros Says “We are on the verge of an economic collapse…

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Soros Says a Euro Exit Mechanism Is ‘Probably Inevitable’ Amid Debt Crisis By Zoe Schneeweiss June 27 (Bloomberg) — Billionaire investor George Soros said it’s “probably inevitable” that a mechanism will be put in place to allow weaker economies to exit the euro.     There’s no arrangement for any countries leaving the euro, which in current circumstances is probably inevitable,”Soros, 80, said at a panel discussion in Vienna yesterday on whether liberal democracy is at risk in Europe. “We are on the verge of an economic collapse which starts, let’s say, in Greece, but it could easily spread. The financial system … Read more

Dollar seen losing global reserve status – FT.com

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Dollar seen losing global reserve status By Jack Farchy in London The US dollar will lose its status as the global reserve currency over the next 25 years, according to a survey of central bank reserve managers who collectively control more than $8,000bn. More than half the managers, who were polled by UBS, predicted that the dollar would be replaced by a portfolio of currencies within the next 25 years. via Dollar seen losing global reserve status – FT.com.

| Reuters

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Fom the Finnancial Times Despite a drop that dragged the S&P 500 as much as 8.2 percent below its three-year high hit in early May, the index held above its 200-day moving average — a major line in the sand as the bulls and bears battle for control of the market. The slide had been telegraphed for weeks and the market’s by-the-book performance — pulling back to a widely followed level — seems too well choreographed for some analysts. “The fact that we went to the 200-day … seems just a little too perfect,” said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist … Read more

Weekend Reading -more gloom and doom

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Financial Times Flight from money market funds exposed to EU banks By Michael Mackenzie and Nicole Bullock in New York Investors are withdrawing cash from money market funds heavily exposed to short-term debt issued by European banks out of fear that a Greek default could spark contagion across the region’s financial sector. At the same time there is increasing reluctance among US banks to lend to their European counterparts in the past two weeks because of growing worries over Greece, according to brokers and bank traders. This could lead to short term liquidity crisis for European banks perceived to be … Read more

|| Equities, Forex, Gold, Silver and Oil Trading

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Market Oversold on News Not Information Stocks seen heavy losses on Friday based on News sparked worries about the Italian banking sector and Greek austerity plan, but the S&P 500 managed to hold its 200-day moving average, there was not spike in the Gold price and the VIX was little changed in a sign of market strength. Aside from the misleading doomsday headlines, the US economy showed a strong turnaround and the EU have agreed to stop any default in Greece. The U.S. economy expanded at a 1.9 percent annual rate from in January through March after expanding at a … Read more

14 Characteristics Of Highly Successful Traders

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I’ve developed my own Trading Rules.  Many of them are on Kirk’s list.  I think he does a great job of summing up some very important concepts. 14 Characteristics Of Highly Successful Traders Posted In Blog | 3 Intelligent Opinions If you’re new here, you may want to subscribe to our RSS feed or follow us on Twitter and Facebook. Either way, thanks for checking us out! The typical list of success traits always includes characteristics such as discipline, focus, passion, commitment, determination, and confidence. Again these can be found almost anywhere and in any book you read. When applied … Read more

”s stock

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Balkanization, or Balkanisation, is a geopolitical term originally used to describe the process of fragmentation or division of a region or state into smaller regions or states that are often hostile or non-cooperative with each other.. You need to look no further than a stock chart of Google or this unbelievably depressing Chart of the Day from the SAI Business Insider. Facebook’s Unbelievable Effect On The Rest Of The Web. Or for that matter the meteoric rise in price of LinkedIn’s IPO.  When I first started an Internet company in 1994, the web held the promise of making the world … Read more

‘| The Economist

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America’s debt ceiling The mother of all tail risks A US technical default would convulse markets. Nothing else is certain Jun 23rd 2011 | WASHINGTON, DC | from the print edition AMERICA’S debt is supposedly the world’s safest, backed by trustworthy courts and an unrivalled capacity to raise taxes and print money. Yet thanks to a quirk of law, talk of default is not confined to the European side of the Atlantic. via America’s debt ceiling: The mother of all tail risks | The Economist.

Top Performing Hedge Funds over the last 12 months

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We wanted to know who the best hedge fund managers in the world are. You would think this kind of information is easy to come by. It’s neither easy to come by nor is it free. Except here at HSAX & CO., LLC. In order to get to the bottom of this, we commissioned BarclayHedge, a leading third party independent database provider to create an exclusive comparative analysis report. Our first revelation was and it should come as no surprise; the biggest are not the best. Warren Buffett would be the first to tell you that he could hit the ball … Read more

Multinational Execs seek tax changes for US units

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Multinational Execs seek tax changes for US units BUD, NSRGY, GSK Corporate executives of US units of foreign-based companies including Nestle SA (VX:NESN), (PK:NSRGY) Thursday pushed for changes in the US. tax code that they argue would encourage more foreign investment in the United States. The US tax code’s restrictions around certain deductions and high corporate tax rate limit the attractiveness of keeping business in the US, executives told lawmakers Thursday at a hearing of the Revenue Measures panel of the House Ways and Means Committee. Many businesses whose parent companies are HQ’d abroad share a move by many US-based … Read more

Large number of RSI divergences today

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We had very positive technical signs go off on a number of portfolio positions today.  We also had bearish divergences go off in a few positions we recently initiated small short positions. I have written at length on RSI divergence as one of the few technical indicators I find useful.   Divergence the best technical indicator.   The following positions all showed bullish or bearish RSI divergences today:       Bullish RSI Divergence NAV Navistar at $51.89 INTC Intel at $21.01 IO ION Geophysical Corporation at $8.03 TMV Direxion 30 YR Treasury Bear 3X at $34.32  (note this has … Read more