Insomniac Hedge Fund Guy

China Will Back the EU

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China Will Back the EU China pledges unconditional support to EU in debt crisis China’s support for the European Union in coping with its debt crisis is unconditional, Shen Danyang, spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce (MOC), said Tuesday. “China has set no preconditions for offering help to others. We only hope that we can gain respect when treating others sincerely,” Shen said at a regular news briefing. Shen said that the EU not recognizing China’s status as a Market Economy and China providing support to the debt-hit EU are inherently different issues. via China Will Back the EU | … Read more

Anyone can have a bad call but when you dedicate an entire book to it?

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Jim Rodgers, a peripatetic,bow-tie wearing, prolific financial commentator and author, wrote a book published in December 2007 entitled a Bull in China, Investing Profitably in the World’s Greatest Market.  Rodgers was a vocal proponent of the theory that the sun has set on the West and China was the future.  No one is in fact more associated with this theory than him.  So how well has the investment turned out for his readers.  While Rodgers recommended dozens of stocks, many of which are impossible to price, it’s fair to say that when you advocate purchasing  more than forty different companies, … Read more

Gorilla glass is a monster for Corning Inc., GLW

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This is one of our positions we are pretty excited about.  In spite of the horrible volatility and unrelenting negative headlines, life will go on and money can be made in the market.   The technical set up for GLW is not great.  I expect it to go down tomorrow but put this on your radar.  Especially take notice of the 2013 Jan 12.5 calls.  They can be purchased for under $3 which looks really cheap to me for  in the money Leaps on a blue chip company.  GLW debt was just upgraded by Moody’s to A3.  They have $4.1 billion in net cash. … Read more

Beyond the European Debt Crisis?

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I’ve found some interesting reading material on the European debt crisis.  The markets are completely obsessed with this rightly or not.  I’m equally obsessed, I have to admit so enjoy these musings by Pension Pulse   FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2011 Beyond the European Debt Crisis?George Soros wrote an excellent comment asking, Does the euro have a future?HT: Steve:The euro crisis is a direct consequence of the crash of 2008. When Lehman Brothers failed, the entire financial system started to collapse and had to be put on artificial life support. This took the form of substituting the sovereign credit of governments … Read more

What are your worst performing funds?

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When I trained brokers for PaineWebber, we used to have mutual fund wholesalers come in almost every week and buy us lunch and tell us about their best performing mutual funds.  After a couple of yeas of sandbagging my clients with the best performing funds, I began immediately interrupting their presentation and asked them about their worst performing funds.  ”  Every year  you tell us about your best performing funds, and we sell them to our clients and then they turn into your worst performing funds after we buy them,” I interrupted once I was assure lunch was served.  “How … Read more

Hedge-Fund Manager John Paulson Still a Bull After His Bare Year – WSJ.com

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By GREGORY ZUCKERMAN And STEVE EDER John Paulson stepped away from his desk to greet a group of clients in his Manhattan offices as stocks tumbled last month. Enlarge Image Bloomberg News Fund manager John Paulson is going through the worst period of his career but remains upbeat on the U.S. market. Donning a dark sports jacket, the founder of giant hedge-fund firm Paulson & Co. apologized for the unusual volatility of his funds and vowed to recover recent losses. He acknowledged mistakes and said he was making adjustments. But there’s one thing Mr. Paulson said hadn’t changed—his bullishness. “The … Read more

Seeking Alpha- I wish I could have been there

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But this is the next best thing without having to be body searched and fly with the public in a cramped aluminum can. CNBC’s Tyler Mathisen talks to six power players to get their best ideas for investing right now, featuring Kyle Bass, Hayman Advisors LP founder and principal; Leon G. Cooperman, Omega Advisors chairman and CEO; Philip Falcone, Harbinger Capital Investments founder; J. Tomilson Hill, Blackstone Marketable Alternative Asset Management CEO; Daniel S. Loeb, Third Point LLC founder and CEO; Anne B. Popkin, Symphony Asset Management president.  

| ValueWalk.com

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Coverage From the Delivering Alpha Conference! September 15, 2011By Jacob Wolinsky Yesterday the “Delivering Alpha Conference” took place in New York. The top value hege fund managers were at the conference; including Jim Chanos, Bill Ackman (stay tuned as I will post more on Bill Ackman later today), Marty Whitman, and many of the speakers in the panel below. This panel consisted of six investors with their favorite ideas. They have seven minutes to present and then took questions from the audience. The panel consisted of Kyle Bass, Hayman Advisors LP founder and principal; Leon G. Cooperman, Omega Advisors chairman and CEO; … Read more

US “Misery”| ZeroHedge

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US “Misery” At Fresh 28 Year High Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/15/2011 10:41 -0400 Reuters Unemployment It was just three months ago that we posted that the US Misery Index (inflation plus unemployment) hit a 28 year high. Today we boldy recycle that headline, and pretty much the entire post, as the US Misery Index just hit a fresh post 1983 high. Really nothing to add here: #WinningTheFuture. Chart: Reuters via US “Misery” At Fresh 28 Year High | ZeroHedge.

Is A Bearish Divergence Signal Flashing In Gold?

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Is A Bearish Divergence Signal Flashing In Gold? Posted In Blog| 2 Intelligent Comments, Add Yours I was on a coaching call last night with another student and we were looking at Gold (GLD). I had noticed that it’s flashing a pretty large bearish divergence signal on the daily chart using a MACD Histogram. Now, I’ll be the first to tell you that Gold is all over the media right now and has been in a parabolic state for the past year. But that doesn’t mean we won’t see a little correct here to keep this rally going. As always, … Read more

| Reuters

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Although nothing goes up or down in a straight line we do feel that the Euro dollar’s long superiority over the U.S. Dollar has come to an end.    By Jan Strupczewski and Glenn Somerville BRUSSELS/WASHINGTON | Mon Sep 12, 2011 7:49pm EDT (Reuters) – Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner makes a one-day trip to Poland this week for an unprecedented meeting with euro zone finance ministers as growing fears of a potential Greek debt default rip into Europe’s banking sector. The trip comes as a surprise since Geithner returned only on Saturday from a meeting of Group of Seven finance … Read more

‘s all macro now

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You are either long or short the market, long or short gold, oil, everything is correlated.  Stock picking is practically dead.  If I had to call it, I’d say we’ve entered a bear market end of April May period.  We probably crystallized  this with the S&P debt downgrade  of U.S. debt.  I believe you can make money in any kind of market but it’s clearly much harder in a bear market.   It would be easy enough if you could just stay short but bear market rallies are notorious for weakening resolve.  Some common themes that should work in this … Read more

How Dodd-Frank Fuels Economic Fear

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Since Barack Obama took office, $38 billion in new major regulations have been introduced, imposing an unprecedented burden on businesses, according to last month’s report by the Heritage Foundation. An overly regulated environment is creating uncertainty — and uncertainty is perhaps the greatest obstacle for investing and hiring. The administration hastily introduced the 2,300 page Dodd Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act in the depths of the recession without fully understanding and studying the potential consequences of such unprecedented legislation. To put the Dodd Frank bill in perspective, it is ten times the length of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act … Read more

Massive Default Is Best Way to Fix the Economy

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You want to fix this economic crisis? You want to put people back to work? You want to light a fire under the economy? There’s a way to do it. Fast. And relatively simple. But you’re not going to like it. You’re not going to like it at all. Default. A national Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The fastest way to fix this mess is to see tens of millions of homeowners default on their mortgages and other debts, and millions more file for bankruptcy. I told you that you wouldn’t like it. I don’t like it much either. It sticks in … Read more

Italian Yields Jump as Papandreou Fights to Skirt Default

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Sept. 12 (Bloomberg) — Italian bond yields surged at an auction today and Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou failed to reassure investors that his country can avert default as the euro region’s debt crisis worsened. Italy sold 12-month bills today to yield 4.153 percent, up from 2.959 percent a month ago as demand fell. The yield on Greece’s two-year note surpassed 60 percent for the first time after the government said it would raise property taxes to meet the 2011 deficit goal in its European Union-led rescue. Papandreou is struggling to convince investors that Europe’s most-indebted country can avoid a … Read more

Girding for Post-Buffett Era, Berkshire Adds Fresh Investment Manager

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NEW YORK—Warren Buffett plucked a second little-known hedge-fund manager from obscurity to handle a portion of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s investment portfolio. The selection of Ted Weschler, managing partner of Charlottesville, Va.-based Peninsula Capital Advisors, is the most recent move to prepare Berkshire for the day when Mr. Buffett, 81 years old, will no longer run the company. Mr. Weschler, 50, will join Todd Combs, selected by Mr. Buffett last year, in handling a fraction of Berkshire’s equity portfolio for the time being. When Mr. Buffett steps aside, the two men, and perhaps a third person, will have responsibility for all … Read more

Stock Market’s Sharp Swings Grow More Frequent – NYTimes.com

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Market Swings Are Becoming New Standard By LOUISE STORY and GRAHAM BOWLEY Published: September 11, 2011 The stock market just can’t seem to make up its mind. Enlarge This Image Paul Taggart/Bloomberg News A trader at the New York Stock Exchange last week, where significant swings were seen almost every day. Multimedia Graphic Era of Higher Stock Volatility Related Investors Brace as Europe Crisis Flares Up Again (September 12, 2011) Renewed Worries About Europe Shake Asian Markets (September 13, 2011) Add to Portfolio Barclays PLC Go to your Portfolio » Day after day, stocks swing sharply by hundreds of points. … Read more

A race down the down-staircase

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Read this excellent article that outlines the dynamics taking place in the market now.  When Domino Pizza stock doubles in the year the U.S. gets downgraded, market dynamics are at work. It’s a race down the down staircase.   As Middle Class Shrinks, P&G Aims High and Low   By ELLEN BYRON For generations, Procter & Gamble Co.’s growth strategy was focused on developing household staples for the vast American middle class. Now, P&G executives say many of its former middle-market shoppers are trading down to lower-priced goods—widening the pools of have and have-not consumers at the expense of the … Read more

Market turmoil lands hedge funds with big losses – FT.com

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Market turmoil lands hedge funds with big losses By Sam Jones Not for the first time, the hedge fund industry has failed to live up to its name. In a month that has seen equity markets around the world collapse, hedge funds too are facing billions in losses.   August, it now seems likely, will be the industry’s worst month since October 2008, when the collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered a worldwide sell-off. It will almost certainly also be one of the top five worst months for the industry since performance data started to be aggregated in 1990. According to … Read more

Correlation of US stocks highest since 1987 crash – FT.com

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Correlation of US stocks highest since 1987 crash By Telis Demos in New York The correlation between the movement of big US stocks is at the highest level since Black Monday in 1987, with price moves increasingly driven by the ebb and flow of investors’ fears over the economic environment. Stocks, in theory, should move in individual directions based on company fundamentals. But markets of late have been characterised by mass selling alternating with waves of buying, as investors upgrade or downgrade the risk of the US slipping into recession, or a financial crisis sparked by a European sovereign default. … Read more

Gross Says Obama’s $300 Billion Plan Not Enough

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Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) — Bill Gross, founder of Pacific Investment Management Co., said President Barack Obama’s plan to stimulate the economy with more than $300 billion in tax cuts and spending is inadequate. “I don’t think $300 billion does it,” Gross said today in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Tom Keene. “I would like to see something bold.” Obama will propose cutting payroll taxes for small businesses as part of a plan to spur hiring, according to an administration memo obtained by Bloomberg News. The tax cut will be included in a package Obama plans lay out in a speech … Read more

U.S. Stocks Fall as Bernanke Fails to Offer New Plans for Growth

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Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks fell, after the biggest gain in two weeks for benchmark gauges, as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke failed to offer any specific new plans to bolster growth in the world’s largest economy. Financial and industrial shares had the biggest losses in the S&P 500 within 10 groups. Bank of America Corp. and Boeing Co. fell at least 2.9 percent, pacing declines in companies most-tied to the economy. Dollar General Corp. slumped 5.4 percent after saying that holders will sell 25 million shares. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.8 percent to 1,189.39 … Read more

Geithner on Global Growth

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Tim Geithner says Global action needed boost growth US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner Thursday called on the Global finance chiefs to boost growth but said a repeat of the massive co-ordinated fiscal stimulus efforts of Y 2009 is no longer possible. In an opinion piece written for the a UK news paper, Mr. Geithner said the United States must strengthen employment, Europe must act more forcefully to contain its debt crisis, and China and other emerging markets should strengthen domestic demand and allow their currencies to rise more rapidly. “The imperative remains to strengthen economic growth. Fiscal policy everywhere has … Read more

US exports rise signalling firmer growth

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US exports rise signalling firmer growth The US economy is sluggish, but it is still moving along. That was the message from 2 economic reports that pointed to a weak labor market, but also a better performance on trade that should boost Q-3 GDP. The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits rose unexpectedly last week, further evidence of an anemic employment picture just hours before President Barack Obama unveils a plan on job creation in a major address to Congress. Still, a considerably narrower trade deficit for July offers hope for economic growth in Q-3 following a … Read more

Obama jobs speech venue part of election strategy

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(Reuters) – President Barack Obama’s use of a rare joint session of Congress to deliver a jobs speech on Thursday reflects a political strategy to try to blame Republicans for an economy at risk of sliding back into recession. The choice of venue — the Republican-controlled House of Representatives — is aimed at sending a clear message to voters that if his plan to reduce high unemployment is blocked by Congress, it is Republicans and not the White House standing in the way of job growth. With unemployment stubbornly high and most Americans unhappy with his handling of the economy, Obama’s speech … Read more

U.S. recovery still on ropes in late summer: Fed

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(Reuters) – The sluggish U.S. recovery failed to gain speed in recent weeks and softened in some areas of the country, as volatile stock markets and sputtering factory activity weighed on growth, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday. “Economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace, though some Districts noted mixed or weakening activity,” the Fed said in its Beige Book collection of anecdotal reports of economic conditions in the Fed’s 12 districts. A sharp decline in stock markets since mid-July and increased economic uncertainty have made businesses gloomier about the outlook in several regions, the Fed said. Growth was modest … Read more

Credit Suisse Core Hedge Fund Index fell less than half that of broad equity

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The Dow Jones Credit Suisse Core Hedge Fund Index Down 2.88% in August versus Losses of 7.69% for Global Equity Markets New York, September 6, 2011 – The Dow Jones Credit Suisse Core Hedge Fund Index fell less than half that of broad equity indexes in August. Oliver Schupp, President of Credit Suisse Index Co., LLC, said, “The Dow Jones Credit Suisse Core Hedge Fund Index finished down 2.88% in August. Despite challenging conditions throughout the month, hedge funds appeared to be effective in providing a degree of capital preservation when compared to global equity markets, which fell 7.69% as … Read more

US Banks to Rally on Deal

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US Banks offered deal on faulty mortgage foreclosure practices BAC, JPM, C, WFC US banks that allegedly engaged in improper mortgage foreclosure practices have been offered a deal by State prosecutors that limits their legal liability in exchange for a multibillion-dollar payment, it was reported Monday citing several people with direct knowledge of the discussions. The proposed deal effectively releases the companies; Bank of America Corp. (NYSE:BAC), J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM), Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE:WFC), Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) and Ally Financial from legal liability for allegedly wrongful securitization practices, the newspaper cited the people as saying. The … Read more

Funds Bet Big on Agriculture

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Funds add Bullish agriculture bets on shortages Funds increased Bullish bets on agricultural commodities by the most in more than a year on signs of tightening supplies amid adverse weather conditions. In the week ended August 30, speculators raised their net-Long positions in 11 commodities by 18% to 915,341 futures and options contracts, government data show, the biggest gain since August 3, 2010. Holdings in Wheat more than tripled, Bullish Corn bets reached an 11-week high, and Coybean positions rose to the highest since November 2010. Corn prices have risen 70% in the past year and Soybean has gained 43%. … Read more

Berlusconi Cabinet to Call Confidence Vote on Austerity Plan

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Sept. 6 (Bloomberg) — Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi called a Cabinet meeting today to authorize a confidence vote in Parliament on an amended 45.5 billion-euro ($64.5 billion) austerity plan that prompted a general strike. The meeting at 6 p.m. in Rome will pave the way for a vote on the measures, which will include raising the value-added tax rate by one percentage point to 21 percent, a 3 percent levy on incomes of more than 500,000 euros a year as well as an increase in the retirement age of women in the private sector starting in 2014, Berlusconi’s office … Read more