Insomniac Hedge Fund Guy

Bloomberg’s Tom Keene Explains The Sheer Brutality Of Wall Street’s Hardest Exam Since this is what I’m going to be spending my lovely Saturday on, I thought I’d share this article with you.  Of course if I pass the exam, I’ll think I’m brilliant for a few weeks until the market tells me otherwise.  The only real exam that counts is the one that tests the temperature of your blood and the pit in your stomach when your largest position in the portfolio is crashing down around you.  Do you puke it up and beg for mercy or double down … Read more

We love Carnival Cruise CCL at today’s closing price of $33.10.    CCL recently lowered guidance for the year due to a variety of reasons, but certainly one of the most significant was the disaster at sea in February.  It also earned itself multiple analyst downgrades when it lowered guidance.  I’ve learned the hard way that you make your money on stocks that analysts hate, not love.  After all does anyone know of an analyst that didn’t love Apple last year? Carnival  had what we describe as a selling climax day on May 21st  when over six times average volume traded closing out the day … Read more

Haunted By The Last Housing Bubble, Fitch Warns “Gains Are Outpacing Fundamentals” The last week has seen quite dramatic drops in the prices of a little-discussed but oh-so-critical asset-class in the last housing bubble’s ‘pop’. Having just crossed above ‘Lehman’ levels, ABX (residential) and CMBX (commercial) credit indices have seen their biggest weekly drop in 20 months as both rates and credit concerns appear to be on the rise. Perhaps it is this price action that has spooked Fitch’s structured products team, or simply the un-sustainability (as we discussed here, here and here most recently) that has the ratings agency … Read more

The 30 yr. U.S Treasury bond, which I am short, just broke key technical support today/tonight.  As you can see from this weekly chart of the T-Bond futures, we are now breaking levels that have held for over a year.  Let the stampede begin.  Of course rising rates in the long term will kill the equity and real estate markets but for now, the bond market is feeling the brunt of the pain.  In the short term, we’ll see some real damage to bonds  if this really does break here.  

One of the things we talk about in the Investment Survival Workshop is developing the mindset to think ahead.   When I first moved out to Park City, Utah from Atlanta, Georgia I was admittedly a bit anxious about the idea of getting up at 5:00AM every day to start researching the stock market.  After all, that’s exactly what I was doing back East except it was 7:00AM and I had a full 2 ½ hours before the market opened at 9:30EST. I did this for some time until I came to the realization that if I was trying to figure out … Read more

SAN FRANCISCO | Sun May 19, 2013 4:36pm EDT (Reuters) – Yahoo Inc’s board has approved a deal to buy blogging and social networking site Tumblr for $1.1 billion in cash, the Wall Street Journal cited people familiar with the matter as saying on Sunday. Such an acquisition would be Marissa Mayer’s largest deal since taking the helm of the once-iconic Internet company in July 2012. Yahoo is keen on fast-growing Tumblr because its younger user base would bolster the older website’s “cool factor,” the technology blog AllThingsD cited the sources as saying. via Yahoo’s board approves $1.1 billion Tumblr … Read more

  Surveying the latest stock transactions of billionaire George Soros, observers would have to surmise tech stocks are in and financial stocks — not to mention some industrials — are out. Soros went even bigger on Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) and bought into Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) and LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD), according to filings detailing his fund’s activity. Soros’s buying and selling activity is always of note, and he proved yet again he’s into Google for the long term. For a stock that continues growing, Google has the distinct advantage in that employees believe the company is going to continue innovating. Google topped … Read more

Jeff Gundlach: “We Are Drowning In Central Banking” Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/19/2013 13:15 -0400 Bill Gross Bond China Gundlach Jeff Gundlach Market Share None Quantitative Easing Trade Wars Last week, Bill Gross did not mince his words when he said that he now “sees bubbles everywhere” and that “when that stops there will be repercussions” but for now Benny and the Inkjets, not to mention his band of merry statist men, who take from the poor and give to the wealthy, are playing the music on Max, and so one must dance and dance and dance. And after … Read more

This is an article from Briefing that I found interesting.  The conclusion is that low low interest rates are very good for investors.  That may be true but I think everyone knows there is no free lunch.  I’m not sure what the consequences of easy money and the Fed’s QE program are but it sure has helped juice the stock market.  If it’s such a good thing, I have to ask a simple question.  Why haven’t we been doing this forever?  The reality is there is an ugly side to this policy.  Some of these ramifications are being felt already. … Read more

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/17/2013 16:08 Whoever orchestrated the last two hour closing ramp sure has a satanic sense of humor, opting to close the S&P at 1666 or exactly 1000 points above the “generational” low. A late-day desperation to buy-buy-buy, triggered by an avalanche of stops being triggered in the DAX futures market as it broke all time highs, sent stocks soaring. Treasuries had been weak all day giving back yesterdays gains and more. The equity spurt was not accompanied by VIX or Credit or Oil or Copper but JPYs break of 103 was another trigger supporting the … Read more

Bit coin bit the dust By JEFFREY SPARSHOTT And ROBIN SIDEL WASHINGTON—U.S. officials dealt a blow to the fledgling digital currency called Bitcoin, freezing an account tied to the largest Bitcoin exchange just months after regulators warned such entities should follow traditional anti-money laundering rules. U.S. officials dealt a blow to the fledgling digital currency called Bitcoin, freezing an account that is tied to the largest Bitcoin exchange just months after regulators warned that such entities should follow traditional rules on money laundering. Jeffrey Sparshott joins digits. Photo: Getty Images. The Department of Homeland Security obtained a warrant Tuesday to … Read more

In the dull run up to the Memorial Day weekend, and the official start of Summer, one piece of market moving news is the ritual of the Form F.  These are filings that reveal what the secretive and fabulously wealthy hedge fund managers have bought, sold and own for the previous quarter.  Unfortunately it’s stale on arrival ( can be 45 days old) but none the less the market will make a big deal of the big kahuna moves.   Form 13F—Reports Filed by Institutional Investment Managers An institutional investment manager that uses the U.S. mail or other means or instrumentality of … Read more

Fed Maps Exit From Stimulus Timing of Wind-Down Is Uncertain, but Focus Is on Managing Unpredictable Market Expectations Article By JON HILSENRATH Federal Reserve officials have mapped out a strategy for winding down an unprecedented $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program meant to spur the economy—an effort to preserve flexibility and manage highly unpredictable market expectations. via Fed Maps Exit From Stimulus – WSJ.com.

  By Alex Oleinic Leon Cooperman is one of the most successful investors of our generation. He is the Chairman and CEO of Omega Advisors, a hedge fund with an equity portfolio of over $5.0 billion. Some of the largest holdings in previous 13Fs have been Sprint Nextel (S), American International Group (AIG) and SLM Corp (SLM). While we don’t have Cooperman’s latest first quarter 13F, we do have a recent CNBC interview given on Thursday May 9, that can be seen here, here and here. To satisfy the dreams of all ardent piggy-backers, Mr. Cooperman discussed some of the … Read more

We’re excited to announce the  next Investment Survival Workshop.  This is a great time to join us or forward this invite to someone who could benefit from this 90 minute free workshop.  No products or services are sold at these events.   Please join us either: Tuesday, May 7th  12:00 noon Spencer’s Steakhouse    255 S. West Temple – parking validated   Thursday, May 9th  6p.m. Market Street Grill – S. Jordan 10702 South River Front Parkway   This workshop is the most informative investment experience you’ll likely have all year.  It’s truly a learning environment as no products or services are being sold.   Mr. Sax is one of the … Read more

This is a revisit of an article I posted on 9-12-2012.  At the time I wrote “with a 2% 10 year risk free Treasury interest rate, the market is just way too low based on one popular measure of valuation, the discounted cash flow model….  If 3.5% is the normal equity risk free premium the S&P 500 should yield more like  5.5%.  In order for that to happen, the S&P 500 would need to be about 1818.  That’s nearly 400 points higher and if you assume each S&P point is equivalent to about  8 Dow points, that’s a 3200 point … Read more

Tuesday’s consumer confidence number will hardly matter in this Goldilocks’s market.  Gloomier outlook will just mean more QE.  A pick up in sentiment might lead credence that there is some kind of economic recovery underway. Forecast 61.0 previous 59.7. Perhaps more telling is the Chicago Purchasing Manager’s forecast of 52.6.  This is a pickup from prior 52.4.  I think this number could disappoint. A nervous market,  the stronger dollar and the slack European and weakening Chinese economies might push this index down and with it the market. Wednesday 1st of the month and the beginning of the dreaded sell in May and go away phenomenon.  … Read more

We’re more than halfway through earning’s season and still insiders largely maintain their boycott of buying.  Insiders continue to unload their company’s stock on the public even as stock prices march higher.  I was hoping that earnings season would come and go leaving the playing field open for buying to pick up.  It hasn’t.  If anything the selling is just even more pronounced.  The one notable exception was a director’s $20.5 million buy of JP Morgan.   This chart from the Washington Service says it best. Even stocks we took a flyer on last week with after they crashed on … Read more

The S&P futures market lost 15 points in seconds and then regained it.  Obviously a fat finger or computer glitch. Nope, it was the hacked Twitter AP account reporting on a false attack on the White House and the injury of the President.   The machines are taking over. More volatility.  

KKR FINANCIAL HOLDINGS LLC (NYSE: KFN) is a New York Stock Exchange-listed specialty finance company with expertise in a range of asset classes. KFN’s core business strategy is to leverage the proprietary resources of its manager with the objective of generating both current income and capital appreciation. KFN is externally managed by KKR Financial Advisors LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of KKR Asset Mangement LLC, which is a wholly owned subsidiary of Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. L.P. KFN executes its core business strategy through majority-owned subsidiaries. Yield 8.30% PennantPark Floating Rate Capital Ltd. PFLT: PennantPark Floating Rate Capital Ltd. (NASDAQ: PFLT) is an … Read more