Insomniac Hedge Fund Guy

There are quite a few names like this, over hyped stocks.  It’s been hard to make money shorting them as long as investors pay up for growth at any price. Stocks whose products help combat security breaches, like fast-growing Proofpoint, have skyrocketed. Source: Proofpoint Needs Profits

Some very smart guys, had big losses in September. Making money in the market is all about people with convictions taking money from the people that lack it.  These guys do their homework and they have conviction. I’m sure they will bounce back as they have time and time again. There’s no big bank failure on the horizon. The housing market is booming, not melting. Yet for a handful of well-known hedge fund managers, 2015 is looking a lot like 2008, when their industry suffered record losses and investor withdrawals. Source: Ackman, Einhorn Lead Hedge Funds on Track to Rival ’08 Slump

According to JP Morgan:US macro update – the big problem for this tape remains the same – a lack of catalysts. The fundamental landscape still isn’t as gloomy as it’s being made out to be but this won’t become apparent for several more weeks at least. It still seems like downside risk from present levels is minimal but the market needs clarity on two big issues (China growth and Fed liftoff timing) before it can materially bounce (remember: the recent bout of instability can trace its bloodline back to the 8/17 CNY devaluation while the Fed’s indecisive and muddled message … Read more

They teach you in business school that value investing is riskier than growth stock investing.  The primary reason is something referred to as the value trap.  A value investor tends to buy stocks when they are trading below what is perceived as intrinsic value.  The most common way to determine that is the discounted cash flow analysis.  The DCF analysis is an attempt to value the future stream of earnings and discount it back to todays dollar using some kinds of discount rate (the return you demand on your money). This is the method Warren Buffet is known to use … Read more

Due to the large amounts of options expiring today, we will post a position page on Monday 9/21/15. Please check back on Monday!

Corporate executives and board members regularly make market-beating returns from buying and selling their companies’ stock in the days before disclosing a significant event, according to a study that says it has found a link between insider knowledge and investment profits. Source: Insiders Beat Market Before Event Disclosure: Study

  Nothing to get too excited about but its a least a step in the right direction.  Insiders are stepping up their buying, the most in 3 years.

This is how they calm nerves about the market in China? Chinese authorities have arrested nearly 200 people for alleged online rumor-mongering about China’s stock market turmoil and a recent, deadly chemical factory explosion in Tianjin. Source: Hundreds arrested as Beijing launches stock market crackdown

I am afraid this is the shot across the bow.  ETFs are destroying the markets in my opinion. One only has to observe the action last Monday on the Dow’s 1000 point plunge at the open to understand the instability they wrought.  Huge temporary declines in some exchange-traded funds, including Vanguard Dividend Appreciation (VIG) and SDPR S&P Dividend (SDY), show pitfalls during stretches of stock-market stress Source: Market Plunge Provides Harsh Lessons for ETF Investors

Floor talk Thursday 14:35 Don’t look now, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500 are all positive for the week.  That’s not always such a laudable thing, but considering how they started on Monday, it’s downright astounding. Briefly, at their Monday lows hit soon after the open, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 were down 6.6%, 8.8%, and 5.3%, respectively.  At their highs today, they were up 8.4%, 12.3%, and 6.6% from those lows, respectively. Generally speaking then, the indices have pivoted from being oversold on a short-term basis to being overbought on a short-term basis. … Read more

Says AGL (GAS) acquisition better positions Southern Company (SO) to succeed in future with increasing gas prices. Says now is the right time for this transaction. Expects natural gas use in the U.S. will increase. Sees natural gas use to rise as much as 2.2 BCF per day by 2020. AGL Resources planning $5B in capital spending over the next five years. Southern Co. sees equity sales beginning later this year. Comments taken from companies’ conference call discussing the transaction. In morning trading, Southern Company shares were down 2.88% to $44.48 and AGL Resources shares were up 27.14% to $60.85.

This is really an incredible statistic and if it weren’t for all the other economic stories unfolding, this would be front page and center or should be. School-Loan Reckoning: 7 Million Are in DefaultFigure translates into about 17% of all borrowers being severely delinquent Updated Aug. 21, 2015 6:56 p.m. ET547 Nearly 7 million Americans have gone at least a year without making a payment on their federal student loans, a high level of default that suggests a widening swath of households are unable or unwilling to pay back their school debt.As of July, 6.9 million Americans with student loans … Read more

Whenever you have a chance to listen to Chanos, take it.  He’s not a boaster, admits he has no idea where the market is going but has some controversial opinions that have proven to be far more right than wrong. Short seller Chanos on China: ‘It’s worse than you think’Jacob Pramuk | @jacobpramukFriday, 21 Aug 2015 | 12:07 PM ETCNBC.com Lingering concerns about China have helped drive stock selling, but investors may still underestimate how much the world’s second-largest economy has slowed, short seller Jim Chanos said Friday.”It’s worse than you think. Whatever you might think, it’s worse,” he said. … Read more

Fading Economy and Graft Crackdown Rattle China’s LeadersBy MICHAEL FORSYTHE and JONATHAN ANSFIELDAUG. 22, HONG KONG — It was hardly an unusual start to the day for a senior Chinese leader in a country grappling with an economic slowdown. On the morning of July 24, Zhou Benshun attended a meeting to promote one of President Xi Jinping’s signature projects, a plan to boost growth by building a “supercity” that would integrate Beijing with the region around it.But by 6:10 p.m. that day, Mr. Zhou’s career was over, and he faced years in prison. Source: Fading Economy and Graft Crackdown Rattle … Read more

More bad news from China, plummeting emerging-market currencies, and a likely change in the Fed’s rate plans send investors to the sidelines. Source: Dow Drops More Than 1,000 Points

The average company’s stock presenting at Enercom plummeted 4% today.  Presenter after presenter referred to the normal world where prices of oil would return to $50-60$ per barrel although there is no real evidence that this is about to happen anytime soon. My market experience tells me that until the last wildcatter gives up on this fantasy, the price of oil will probably continue to drift lower.  My experience tell me bottoms occur when everyone gives up  talking about it much less calling it.  We are not there yet. The lunchtime presenter was Cheniere Energy’s (LNG) CEO,  Charif Souki. Cheniere … Read more

Biogen’s not cheap by any means but you are getting the pipeline on the cheap.  It’s our 2nd largest holding and the management seems to be a class act. I think negative headlines have missed Biogen’s true opportunities. Source: 3 Reasons Why I Just Bought Biogen Inc. Stock — The Motley Fool

A tight group of glamour stocks is so far helping the big U.S. stock indexes withstand a slow-motion crash in emerging markets and commodities. Source: ‘Nifty’ growth stocks keep the bears at bay, for now