Stocks suffer worst week in two years

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You will hear a lot of explanations of why stocks had their worst week in two years.  The truth of the matter is no one knows.  Sure there are a lot of explanations and perhaps its just the sum of those explanations that adds up to the best explanation.

1. Ukraine crisis.  Obama and the EU have been ratcheting up pressure since the Malaysian airliner was shot down over eastern Ukraine by the separatists.  Obama claims its not a new cold war but Putin shows no signs of backing down. Sanctions now targeting the Russian oil industry.  Counterintuitively the price of oil declines.

2.Portgual debt crisis. Seriously this would be a yawner most anytime.

3.Argentina default.  This looks like an isolated country default and not a harbinger of things to come.

4.Israeli-Palestine Gaza fighting is unsettling.  It would be unsettling to the market if Saudi Arabia and other oil producing states threaten to use oil as a weapon.  They haven’t yet and oil still goes down.

5. Iraq-Syria- ISIS- the really scary developments in the region threaten to turn into a regional war.  Why do we care?  Again, the flow of the most important commodity in the world, oil, could be imperiled.  Counterintuitively oil goes down.

6. Oil goes down in spite of all the reasons it should be going up.  This is troublesome and could signal slower growth ahead.

7. A record amount of stock issuance topped with the IPO of GE’s retail financial business, Synchrony Financial (NYSE: SYF),  at the low-end of the expected range of $23 to $26 a share, and broke support the first day.

8. A dearth of insider buying in most of the blue chips.  If the people that run America’s largest companies find little of interest, maybe that’s a warning.

Bottom line. This is nothing more than a garden variety sell off.   With Central Bankers determined to provide support to the markets, I don’t expect the carnage to last much longer unless geopolitics take a turn for the worse.  Understand what you own, don’t use leverage, and avoid over concentrated positions.  If you can’t find anything to buy, just wait.  It will come in some more.

 

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