Month: December 2015

The investors that did the best in 2015 are those that defied conventional wisdom. Source: A Bold Few Traders Earn Billions Flouting Rivals – WSJ

Hedge fund managers have stunned investors with the depth of their losses this year, and pressure to perform better will be intense heading into 2016. Source: Hedge Funds Struggle With Steep Losses and High Expectations

One of the most striking narratives to date has been the lack of any positive upside optionality in the markets for the price of crude going up.   Tumult in the MidEast will grow more likely in my opinion, as the largess of the oil states declines, the social fabric may be strained. Gloom descends on Gulf as oil price slump hits economy by Simeon Kerr Share Author A caustic slogan is doing the rounds on social networks in the Gulf states this festive season: “All I want for Christmas is for oil prices to go up.”Gloom has descended on the … Read more

Oil Is Now Cheaper Than Coffee, Milk, & WaterSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 12/23/2015 15:55 -0500 inShare  While oil may be cheaper… But the rest of these ‘staples’ still taste a lot better. Source: Oil Is Now Cheaper Than Coffee, Milk, & Water | Zero Hedge

The finances of nonprofit Burning Man come to lightJosh Weiss2 Hours AgoCNBC.com17SHARESCOMMENTSStart the DiscussionJim Urquhart | ReutersThe Man burns during the Burning Man 2013 arts and music festival in Black Rock Desert, Nevada.Burning Man is just a gathering of hippies when a giant wooden effigy is set ablaze, right? According to a recent report on the annual event in the Nevada Desert, that definition would be oversimplifying matters. Source: The finances of nonprofit Burning Man come to light

We’ve hit peak pessimism.“There is no bid for oil.” Those were the first words I heard recently from Bloomberg’s Tom Keene when I turned on the television a little before five.The media follows mood, and Mr. Keene was expressing the sentiment of crude oil traders around the globe—saturating hopelessness. No one buying. Only selling.Finally! Source: Here’s Why There’s a Huge Opportunity in Oil Prices – Fortune

When Apple co-founder Steve Jobs died in 2011, many wondered if the company would stumble without its visionary CEO. This week on 60 Minutes, Charlie Rose goes “Inside Apple” to see how the company is faring four years later, and whether it is still capable of the kind of bold innovation that made it the richest corporation in the world. Source: Can Apple still change the world? – CBS News

The technology giant’s CEO, Tim Cook, addresses issues concerning his company — including encryption technology, corporate taxes, and manufacturing products in China Source: What’s next for Apple? – CBS News

The knock on America’s most valuable company is that it has been so successful that it will now struggle to grow. Wall Street sees earnings per share increasing just 6% to $9.75 during the current fiscal year through September 2016, following a 43% surge last year. Source: Apple Flat on the Year But Set for a Gangbusters 2016 – Barron’s

WETHERBY ALSO SEES MAJOR upside in midstream MLPs. The oil crash has demolished MLPs, with the Alerian MLP Index down about 50% from its August 2014 peak. Midstream MLPs, which focus on the processing, storing, and transmission of oil and gas, have been walloped along with the rest.That’s undeserved, says Wetherby, since low oil prices haven’t hurt overall demand for energy. For investors with a time horizon of 3 to 5 years, midstream MLPs should pay off nicely—and in the meantime, they deliver yields of about 13%, she notes.“At some point, people are going to realize [that midstream companies’] revenues … Read more

When Apple’s designers wanted to improve the iPhone’s ability to take selfies, they did not just look at the camera or a conventional LED-based flash. An in-house team came up with a custom display chip to briefly light up the devices’s screen three Source: Apple’s in-house chip design unit gives it smartphone edge – FT.com

On the day the Federal Reserve implemented its plan to raise interest rates, driving up overnight borrowing costs, broader market forces conspired instead to drive other U.S. interest rates down. Source: Fed Hikes, but Some Rates Veer Lower – WSJ

When I look at a beaten-up sector, one of the key tells that things may be near a turnaround is insider buying. I may not be an expert on a given industry, but the people running the companies in the space should have some deeper level of knowledge than I possess. We are finally starting to see some insider buying in the energy sector after something of a lull in 2015. I have proven pretty definitively that I have no sense of timing when it comes to the oil market, as I have been long and wrong for a little … Read more

The market is fixated on the price of oil and its deflationary impact on numerous industries.  As the overwhelmingly most important commodity in the world, it has enormous multiplier effects. In The Wall Street Journal, Daniel Yergin writes about the global battle for oil market share. Iran and its rivals vie for advantage amid low prices, oversupply and the likely end of the U.S. export ban. Source: The Global Battle for Oil Market Share – WSJ

In a move considered unthinkable even a few months ago, congressional leaders have agreed to lift the nation’s 40-year-old ban on oil exports, a historic action that reflects political and economic shifts driven by a boom in U.S. oil drilling. Source: Congressional Leaders Agree to Lift 40-Year Ban on Oil Exports – WSJ

Raymond James Chief Investment Strategist Jeffrey Saut said Tuesday that stock investors should get read for a “rip your face off-type rally.” Source: Stocks ready for ‘rip your face off’ rally: Saut – Yahoo Finance

If the President won’t block it, this is huge news for the beleaguered oil and gas infrastructure MLP industry.  I think it will put a floor on the stock declines at least. Congressional leaders agreed on a U.S. fiscal plan that would avert a government shutdown and lift the 40-year-old ban on crude oil exports, House Republicans said. Source: Congress Reaches Fiscal Deal That Ends U.S. Crude Oil Export Ban – Bloomberg Politics

On Monday, Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley cited channel checks and a customer intent survey as the basis for predicting the potential for iPhone sales to fall by as much as 2.9 percent over the next year, reaching a total for 2016 as low as 224 million in a “worst case scenario.” The idea of “Peak iPhone” generated clickbait headlines, but the real story is that channel checks have historically been extremely worthless at predicting Apple’s actual performance. Source: Channel-check analysts warning of Peak iPhone are priming Apple shares for monster buybacks

“in the United States at least the Fed and the forecasting community has been consistently far behind the curve in recognizing that the neutral real rates has fallen. If, as I suspect, Rachel and Smith are right there will be much less scope to raise rates in the industrial world over the next few years than the world’s central banks suppose.” Former Treasury Secretary Larry Sommers is usually thought to be the smartest guy in the room. I’d put more credence on this than Wall Street consensus or Fed member Stanley’s Fischer’s comments about rising Fed Funds rate to 3%. … Read more

Persistently low inflation has led investors to expect more of the same in coming years, but fear of superlow inflation or even deflation may be getting out of hand. Source: Beware an Inflation Scare – WSJ

Bloomberg Business delivers business and markets news, data, analysis, and video to the world, featuring stories from Businessweek and Bloomberg News. Source: Don’t Count on an Oil Rally If U.S. Crude Export Ban Is Lifted – Bloomberg Business My comment, it might not cause a rally but it might provide a floor.

Natural gas prices plunged to a 14-year low Monday, as an unusually warm winter saps demand and deals another blow to struggling energy companies. Source: Natural Gas Sinks to 14-Year Low – WSJ

Junk-Bond Selloff IntensifiesRout reaches a third consecutive trading day and shares of some asset managers tumble Source: Junk-Bond Selloff Intensifies – WSJ

A 200-year history shows that the real aberration looks like the 7.3 percent average experienced in the U.S. from 1970 to 2007. Source: Why Very Low Interest Rates May Stick Around – The New York Times

simple Source: Peter Lynch, 25 Years Later: It’s Not Just ‘Invest in What You Know’ – WSJ

Federal Reserve officials are likely to raise their benchmark short-term interest rate from near zero Wednesday, expecting to slowly ratchet it higher to above 3% in three years. Their big worry is they’ll end up right back at zero. Source: Fed Officials Worry Interest Rates Will Go Up, Only to Come Back Down – WSJ

Jeffrey Gundlach, the widely followed investor who runs DoubleLine Capital, warned Friday that crumbling credit markets could expose more fund debacles such as Third Avenue Management’s junk bond portfolio and the Federal Reserve should take note of deteriorating financial conditions. Source: Gundlach says ‘never just one cockroach’ in any kind of credit meltdown