Protected: 3rd Quarter 2014 Partner Letter
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Month: October 2014
Protected: Portfolio Holdings 10-17-14
There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.
‘s mine
It’s hard to find the contrarian view in the oil patch these days but some of our contrarian observations are: A barrel of oil is worth far more in the U.S. than in other parts of the world. The U.S .is the most stable place in the world with large proved reserves. Most discovered deposits of oil are in politically unstable countries or in hard to reach locations with undeveloped infrastructure like the Arctic or ocean floor Large oil and gas exploration companies like Exxon, BP, Royal Dutch, etc. plan capital budgets for decades out. If the price of WTI … Read more
Merrill Lynch is the cause of the Ebola economic panic, written by a lawyer not even a healthcare worker!
I think Merrill Lynch is the main cause of the global economic panic about Ebola. They published this report 10-3-14 on Ebola front page as part of their big global strategy update. Note the author of the Ebola piece, Sarbhit Nahal, is not even a healthcare worker, he’s a friggin lawyer. “Be prepared to fight pandemics This week, we discuss a number of topics related to themes from our A Transforming World framework. As Ebola concerns loom, the risk of a pandemic spreading globally is a question of when rather than if, according to strategist Sarbjit Nahal. He suggests the … Read more
Is there more downside risk? Insiders will soon provide the answer
I spent a little while today calling clients and calming nerves. If you didn’t get a call from me today, you will tomorrow. Most of our clients are not too nervous and that could be a bad sign as real bear markets end when they have pushed everyone out of the market. That is if we are in a bear market. I don’t believe we are there yet unless interest rates rise aggressively or there is some global shock that causes an unforeseen economic retraction. Is Ebola the global shock? Don’t think so. I talked to Geoff Tabin today about … Read more
| Reuters
Reuters – The stock markets long-suffering short sellers finally have something to smile about. Investors who make a living betting that stock prices will fall are in a position to profit handsomely as the U.S. equity market sinks, with its biggest weekly plunge in more than two years last week and continuing to decline so far this week. After lean years in which short-biased funds tracked by eVestment have posted double-digit losses every year since 2008, some were able to post among the investment industrys best returns in September and may well have done even better in the first two … Read more
Crude oil in free fall creates long term buying opportunity
I think the sharp drop in crude and the decline in some US centric shale plays creates a buying opportunity. We bought Anadarko, Apache, Continental Resources, EOG, a little Chesapeake and quite a bit of Occidental today. It’s a falling knife for sure but we are probably a lot closer to the bottom than the top. We don’t pretend to be able to portend the future price of crude. I don’t think the CEO of Exxon can do that. What is clear though is that the US has become the most reliable, safest place in the world to explore and … Read more
Protected: Portfolio Holdings 10-2-14
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