Insider Buying 03-28-25 Stagflation is the Game. Confidence has been Shattered

The market as measured by the S&P 500 shed 1.53% last month. The dollar was down, gold up. There seems be a pattern here. Money is voting in real time and it’s leaving the stock market.  This looks to me like the opposite of a virtuous cycle. Instead, a vicious cycle is developing a loop of negative events that reinforce and worsen each other. I suspect as the quarter ends, there will be a steady drum beat of lowered earnings expectations.   Consumer confidence is falling at historic rates and business animal spirits are retreating with their tails between their legs. … Read more

Don’t wait for the Happy Ending-Insiders are Unloading Way too much Stock

For trade details click on this link to the trades   We’ve been talking about how insiders are restricted from buying because of the quarterly earnings blackout period.  That sure hasn’t stopped them from selling, making a farce out of the SEC’s measures to protect the public investor from the officers, directors, and 10% or more shareholders that are considered to be privy to special inside information. Rather than rail about the inequities we face, we prefer to take the world as it’s given to us and try to make the best of it.  This week is downright ugly.  Of … Read more

Earnings Blackout or Insiders Backing Off? Roller Coast Week of October 4, 2019

  The spike in insider buying that supported the brief rally in September has predictably collapsed in part because earnings blackout has begun, but equally important insiders buy their own company’s stock when they perceive it to be cheap.  There was a pickup in buying during the summer as the market stalled and pulled back. Note the yellow highlight on the red graph. Ulta Beauty’s major shareholder and Channel family advisor, Charles Heibroon bought $58.9 million of the beauty chain company, Ulta Beauty.  Ulta took a dump on August 30th, dropping $100 in price, losing almost a third of its … Read more

Notable Insider Buys and Sales Week Ending 4-6-19

It was a dull week on insider buying, the week before.  Last week would make you think it was a crime to buy your own company’s stock.   Of course, we are in the throes of the 1st quarter earnings blackout, but insiders still find ways to unload their holdings though.

Buys

WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance-Walgreens Boots Alliance Q2 ‘was a very disappointing quarter for us’ according to management’s earnings conference call.  The stock was pummeled with numerous analyst downgrades.  The stock got cheap enough for the COO, to pull the trigger and bought $1 million worth of WBA at $54.58.  We are taking this lay-up but can’t stay we will stay here for long.

Rev Revlon Chairman of the Board, Perlman continues to pour money into the cosmetics giant. He purchased two lots, one for $2.34 million at $20.22, the other one of $1.4 million at $21.10.

COST Costco Wholesale A director bought 3000 shares near a 52 week high at $242.85.  It’s hard to put a lot of conviction into this purchase even though it was a sizeable amount, $727k. Buying market darlings at 52 week highs is not your typical MO for an insider.

RMBL Rumble On Dir Dixon bought 50,415 at $4.77 of this motorcycle marketplace.  We are doing more research on this name but it looks interesting. We are trying to figure out where Ebay Marketplace and Carvana’s success could transfer to this name.

Sales

Not much of interest here either. Insiders continue to unload stock using the Rule 10b5-1 loophole that allows insiders to sell stock right through any imposed earnings blackout period. It’s hard to read anything much into these sales other than the fact, that I would rather see insiders buying than selling their stock. The timing of these transactions shed little light on short term price movements, though.

In this report, we examined open market purchases from employees and directors.  Insiders sell stock for many reasons, but they generally buy for just one – to make money.  As a standard, we only look at material amounts of money, $200 thousand or more, as anything less could just be window dressing. The bar is different from selling because the natural state of management is to be sellers. This is because most companies provide significant amounts of management compensation packages as stock. Therefore, with selling, we analyze for unusual patterns, such as insiders selling 25 percent or more of their holdings or multiple insiders selling near 52-week lows. Another red flag is large planned sale programs that start without warning. We generally ignore 10 percent shareholders as they tend to be OPM (other people’s money) and not the SMART money we are trying to go to school on.  Although this info is available for free from the SEC’s Web site, Edgar, we subscribe to the Washington Service as they provide a way to manage and make sense of the vast realms of data.

To learn more about our strategy, visit our website here. We welcome your comments on our analysis. We may own positions, long or short, in any of these names and are under no obligation to disclose that.

Notable Insider Buys and Sales Week Ending 3-29-19

Talk about a dull week on insider buying.  This is all that stuck out. Of course we are in the throes of the 1st quarter earnings blackout, but still, this is very thin. Insiders still find ways to unload their holdings though.

Buys

ETRN Equitrans Midstream Corp– three insiders bought $446.K of this midstream natural gas company. On February 21, 2018, EQT Corporation (EQT) announced plans to separate its separately managed gathering, transmission and storage, and water services operations (Midstream Business) from its natural gas, oil and natural gas liquids development, production and sales and commercial operations (Upstream Business). The separation of the Midstream Business from the Upstream Business will culminate in the spinoff from EQT of a new company named Equitrans Midstream Corporation. Equitrans Midstream will trade on the NYSE under the ticker symbol ETRN.

CLR Continental Resources Harold Hamm CEO bought $34 million at $42.95.  Hamm has been a consistent buyer of stock in the last 5 years and has yet to make any headway in these purchases. We see no reason why this latest buy would be any different.
Sales

Insiders always find ways to sell with  “planned sales” which in reality is just a legal loophole around the SEC restrictions on insider selling during earnings blackout periods.  Some of the more notable ones are described below.

ULTA Ulta Beauty Inc. Insiders dumped a bunch of ULTA the week ending 3/22/19 and last week was no different. Five insiders took advantage of lifetime high prices to unload $199.8  million worth of this beauty chain. As of November 3, 2018, the company operated 1,163 retail stores across 50 states.

We think they have the right idea and would be sellers ourselves. Ulta has had stellar growth but its slowing.

CRM Salesforce Eight insiders sold $19.1 million worth of stock through a combination of sales and option exercises.  Salesforce is a bloated overpriced cloud-based CRM.  It invented the field so there are a lot of entrenched, hard to switch users but now there are many cheaper, viable competitors. Eventually, the market will perceive the moat is draining and the emperor has no clothes. This is a short but beware the market can remain irrational longer than you can be solvent.

SMAR Smartsheet Inc Five insiders sold a combination of stock and options worth $8.7 million. Smartsheet Inc. provides cloud-based platform for execution of work. It enables teams and organizations to plan, capture, manage, automate, and report on work. The company offers Smartdashboards that provides the status of work to align individuals, managers, and executive

 

In this report, we examined open market purchases from employees and directors.  Insiders sell stock for many reasons, but they generally buy for just one – to make money.  As a standard, we only look at material amounts of money, $200 thousand or more, as anything less could just be window dressing. The bar is different from selling because the natural state of management is to be sellers. This is because most companies provide significant amounts of management compensation packages as stock. Therefore, with selling, we analyze for unusual patterns, such as insiders selling 25 percent or more of their holdings or multiple insiders selling near 52-week lows. Another red flag is large planned sale programs that start without warning. We generally ignore 10 percent shareholders as they tend to be OPM (other people’s money) and not the SMART money we are trying to go to school on.  Although this info is available for free from the SEC’s Web site, Edgar, we subscribe to the Washington Service as they provide a way to manage and make sense of the vast realms of data.

To learn more about our strategy, visit our website here. We welcome your comments on our analysis. We may own positions, long or short, in any of these names and are under no obligation to disclose that.

Large number of RSI divergences today

We had very positive technical signs go off on a number of portfolio positions today.  We also had bearish divergences go off in a few positions we recently initiated small short positions. I have written at length on RSI divergence as one of the few technical indicators I find useful.   Divergence the best technical indicator.   The following positions all showed bullish or bearish RSI divergences today:       Bullish RSI Divergence NAV Navistar at $51.89 INTC Intel at $21.01 IO ION Geophysical Corporation at $8.03 TMV Direxion 30 YR Treasury Bear 3X at $34.32  (note this has … Read more