$SWX

The Bull Charges as Bears Run in Disbelief Insider Buying Week 3-31-23

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It may be the calm before the storm but the bulls are running. The Fed’s rapid interest rate hikes came to a screeching halt last week. The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price (PCE) Index came in below expectations Friday.  Hiking interest rates has been one of the key policy tools used by the Fed to cool the economy and ease inflationary pressures. Many investors have been concerned about whether the pace of rate hikes and keeping rates higher for longer could drag the U.S. economy into a recession. That all came to a sudden and unexpected … Read more

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is a Dangerous man

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I wrote to clients in the February update that  Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is a dangerous fellow.  Last week he proved that causing a run on the banking system.  Ironically if the creation of a new Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP)had been in place the week before, Silicon Valley Bank might have avoided failure and bankruptcy. Powell’s rapid hike in interest rates as a cure for the supply-side inflation shock is likely to be as successful as the ancient but now discredited medical practice of bleeding the patient. If Powell was the CEO of a public company, activist shareholders would … Read more

One way this is not like 2008, Insiders are NOT Buying -Insider Buying Week 3-10-23

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This is LIKE 2008, contrary to what you may have heard about the recent Silicon Valley Bank failure.   Banks either don’t want to pay competitive deposit rates or can’t.  Competing with Fed Chairman Powel’s ~5%  treasuries is hard. Actually no banks can compete with it. Vast sums are being withdrawn from the banking system. Ironically the stock market is on the only place you will be able to compete with the yield crisis that the Fed is precipitating.  Many solid companies are paying good dividends with the likely prospect of raising them.  So tell me, how is this not like … Read more