Strait of Hormuz

IAEA Gets Nowhere With Iran Nuclear Talks

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While Iran’s willingness to reopen talks with the International Atomic Energy Agency about their nuclear program was a surprise, it seems that the motion was mostly for show.    Several rounds of discussions yielded no access to a military site in Parchin which is suspected to be a weapons development facility.  There has been no agreement on further discussing the matter.  Light crude is hovering close to $106 a barrel today, so much for  Prince Alwaleed’s promise to keep oil under the $100 a barrel mark. From FT: “The International Atomic Energy Agency has reported that it held a “disappointing” … Read more

”s Day Love From Iran: Escorted Through Hormuz

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As the Carrier Abraham Lincoln left the gulf Tuesday, it’s battle group contingent was on high alert.  According to the AP: The passage ended a Gulf mission that displayed Western naval power amid heightened tensions with Tehran, which has threatened to choke off vital oil shipping lanes.The Lincoln was the centerpiece of a flotilla that entered the Gulf last month along with British and French warships in a display of Western unity against Iranian threats. There was no immediate comment by Iran about the Lincoln’s departure.  Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has said it plans its own naval exercises near the strait, … Read more

Saudi Arabia Will Not Let Oil Go Above $100

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According to Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal al Saud, the billionaire head of Kingdom Holding Co., Saudi Arabia is poised to limit the appreciation of oil to no greater than $100 a barrel. “We can use our leverage, our excess capacity to be sure to pump more [oil] if needed so it will not impact the consumer countries while they’re getting out of their recessions slowly but surely,” the prince said. As for Iran, he said it is important for the U.S. and other nations to put sanctions on the “renegade country” to force its government to negotiate. Issuing an … Read more

With Iran Offline, Oil Could Jump 30%

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Despite our massive emergency oil reserves (see here), the IMF estimates a halt in Iran crude could produce a rather dramatic effect in the price of oil: “If Iran halts exports to countries without offsets from other sources it would likely trigger an “initial” oil price jump of 20 to 30 percent, or about $20 to $30 a barrel, the IMF said in its first public comment on a possible Iranian oil supply disruption.” “Financial sanctions against Tehran may be ‘tantamount to an oil embargo’ and would imply supply declines of about 1.5 million barrels per day from the world’s … Read more

What Does a Third Carrier Battle Group in the Gulf Mean?

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Having already recently warned the US (Jan 3), Iran is certainly not going to appreciate the addition of a third Carrier Battle Group around the Strait of Hormuz which was announced yesterday on Navaltoday.com. Generally a Battle Group makes for a bit of a procession.  Although it varies depending on the mission, the structure of a Group generally consists of: the aircraft carrier itself, two offensive guided-missle cruisers to engage land targets, two destroyers for defensive maneuvers against submarines and aircraft, a frigate to protect from submarine attacks, two submarines also for defensive purposes, and a supply ship to provide support … Read more

Iran, Nuclear Policy, and America: An Investment Opportunity In Disaster?

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  We have a delicate balancing act at hand between the threat of an emerging nuclear power, our rapacious thirst for oil, and responsible diplomatic policy.  The consternation in the air is palpable, bringing to mind Buffet’s famous words “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”.  So how does one put such words of wisdom into an actionable trade idea?  Since going long nuclear fallout seems short sighted, let’s look at how to take advantage of a potential event driven jump in the price of oil once we fully grasp the situation at hand. At … Read more

The Ban on Iran: Tehran continues with threats

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As promised, the European Union followed through with their promise to ban all oil imports from Iran today in an effort to halt the country’s nuclear development program.  The halt on oil was accompanied by a number of other provisions including sanctions on trading with their central bank.  Just days after the US, French, and British militaries sent a flotilla of warships through the gulf, the combined effect of the ban and military actions are sure to add pressure to our already tense relationship with Iran who reiterated their threat of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz.  Markets responded … Read more

France Said to Seek Faster Start to EU Iran Oil Embargo

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Oil markets see a bit of a boost from France’s push toward cutting the grace period before implementing a ban on Iranian crude in half, breaking a 4 day loosing streak. Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) — France is pushing for faster enforcement of the European Union’s proposed ban on oil imports from Iran, two officials with knowledge of the matter said. France wants the embargo to be delayed by no more than three months to allow nations including Greece, Italy and Spain to find alternative supplies, according to a French government official, who declined to be identified, citing state rules. While … Read more