inflation

Pension Pulse: Hidden Burden of Ultra-Low Interest Rates?

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Guest Post By: Leo Kolivakis via Pension Pulse: Hidden Burden of Ultra-Low Interest Rates?.   Matthew Philips and Dakin Campbell of Bloomberg report, Banks Join Pensions in Squeeze as Federal Reserve’s Low Rates Erode Profit:   The Federal Reserve, which cut its target for the federal funds rate to a zero-to-0.25 percent range on Dec. 16, 2008, said last month that rates would remain “exceptionally low” at least through late 2014. While the unprecedented period of near-zero rates is meant to aid an ailing economy, it poses challenges for banks, insurers, pension funds, and savers. The hope is that by making mortgages and … Read more

The Roof Has Been Raised: $16.4 Trillion Debt Ceiling

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Well, it’s looking like  the Senate was unable to muster enough votes to reject the newest debt ceiling hike in a 52 to 44 vote.  Due to take effect this Friday, we will be looking at a new ceiling of $16.4 trillion with our current levels reaching the $15.4 trillion mark. From Zerohedge: “Since roughly $100 billion was plundered from Pension Funds in the past month, The US will have about $15.4 trillion in debt with the Monday DTS. The question then is how long will the $1 trillion in debt capacity last: at $125 billion/month it won’t be enough … Read more

Producer Prices Surge in July as Inflation Fears Ratchet Up

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U.S. core producer prices rose at their fastest pace in six months in July, pushed up by higher tobacco and light truck costs, according to a government report on Wednesday that could stoke inflation fears. The Labor Department said its seasonally adjusted index for prices paid at the farm and factory gate, excluding food and energy, rose 0.4 percent—the largest increase since January—after rising 0.3 percent in June. That compared with economists’ expectations for a 0.2 percent rise. Overall prices received by producers rose 0.2 percent after falling 0.4 percent in June, above economists’ expectations for a 0.1 percent gain. … Read more

Pressure Rises on China to Fight Inflation

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  SHANGHAI—Fresh data showing strong capital inflows into China and a spike in the interest rates on central-bank debt showed continuing pressure on the government to keep fighting inflation with tightening measures despite worries about weakness in the global economy. Foreign direct investment in China last month jumped 20% from a year earlier to $8.3 billion, China’s Commerce Ministry said Tuesday. The data came as the People’s Bank of China unexpectedly jacked up the interest rate on its debt for the first time since late June. That higher yield, which came in a regular weekly auction of one-year bills, was … Read more

Inflation Speculation

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When currencies do not serve as a long-term store of value, economic actors search for ways to preserve future purchasing power, which often mean purchasing commodities. But most commodities are not cheaply storable over long periods, so actors get forced into the few that do: gold, silver, etc. There is a problem here, stemming from dumb money. When dumb money shows up for purchase of generic “commodities” distortions follow: backwardation, large storage demand, and warped market incentives.

Eventually overproduction catches up, but the volatility when it breaks can be huge and self-reinforcing, with c0unterparties raising margin to protect themselves.  Extreme volatility causes exchanges to raise margin requirements substantially, which reveals which side of the trade is inadequately financed, which typically is the side that was winning, which leads to a reversal in price action.  The dumb money is revealed.

Now after a washout, the dumb money often assumes that powerful entrenched interests colluded against them to deny them their long-deserved free ride to prosperity through speculation.  The exchanges are in cahoots with the other side.  Well, no, the exchanges have two interests, which are solvency and transaction volume, which drives their profits.  Solvency is a more primary goal for an exchange, because the second goal can’t exist without it, and exchanges are not thickly capitalized.

Many different types of financial systems are subject to these risks.  Think of AIG: they were rendered insolvent by rising margin requirements as their creditworthiness was downgraded, largely because the rating agencies concluded they were going to lose a lot of money off of their many bets on subprime residential credit.  Think of all of the mortgage REITs that got killed as repo haircuts rose on all manner of mortgage-backed securities at the time that values for the securities were depressed.  Alternatively, think of Buffett, who entered into derivative trades where he received money and bore the risk, but his agreements limited the margin that he would have to post.

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