greece

”s Summer not Fall.

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Everyone is nervous about Europe.  Me too.  I have no way of knowing how much of this is already priced in the market.  You’d have to say a lot based on the violent reaction in the oil patch, some European markets but  I don’t see any positive outcome from this weekend vote in Greece.  If they vote to  keep the austerity demands in place, brief rally and the market will soon say the economy is just going to at best muddle along and at worse, be right back at the  bread line. On the other hand if they abandon austerity, … Read more

| ZeroHedge

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Spain IS Greece After All: Here Are The Main Outstanding Items Following The Spanish Bailout Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/09/2012 14:52 -0400 Bank Run Bond Bridgewater CDS Creditors European Central Bank Eurozone Germany Greece Gross Domestic Product Ireland Italy National Debt Nationalization Portugal Sovereign Debt After two years of denials, we finally have the right answer: Spain IS Greece. Only much bigger. So now that the European bailout has moved from Greece, Ireland and Portugal on to the big one, Spain, here are the key outstanding questions.   via Spain IS Greece After All: Here Are The Main Outstanding … Read more

‘s too expensive to leave

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I’ve been struggling with a metaphor to describe the state of affairs in Europe.  I’ve got it now.  It’s a bad marriage .  All parties now realize they’d be better off ending it except they can’t afford the divorce.  At some point, my guess is that Germany answers the question, “Why are euro divorces so expensive?  Because they’re worth it.” or do they just learn to live together and make the best of it.  I don’t know the German psyche well enough to answer that one.  Perhaps one of our readers will hazard a guess?

Soros says Europe has three months to avoid catastrophe

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I don’t pretend to know what’s going to happen but I’ve said many times, the world would be much better off without the euro.  For reasons beyond my comprehension, the Europeans seem hell bent on keeping it.  Perhaps this speech from George Soros will make it clearer to you. Remarks at the Festival of Economics, Trento Italy June 2nd  

European Banks Unprepared for Greek Exit From Euro – Yahoo! Finance

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European Banks Unprepared for Greek Exit From EuroBy Elena Logutenkova, Liam Vaughan and Gavin Finch | Bloomberg – 1 hour 27 minutes ago Europe’s banks, sitting on $1.19 trillion of debt to Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland, are facing a wave of losses if Greece abandons the euro. While lenders have increased capital buffers, written down Greek bonds and used central-bank loans to help refinance units in southern Europe, they remain vulnerable to the contagion that might follow a withdrawal, investors say. Even with more than two years of preparation, banks still are at risk of deposit flight and rising … Read more

Greece A Result Of A Greedy Goldman? Nahhhh…

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Back in 2001, Greece had a problem.  The struggling country’s debt levels were simply too high to qualify for admittance to the European Union.  While these regulations were in place to protect the structure of the European economy, Goldman Sachs was more than willing to step in with a timely loan which provided the necessary liquidity to hide the nation’s accumulated debt load.  Essentially a perfect solution for both Greece and Goldman, here is the situation illustrated by Bloomberg: “The Goldman Sachs transaction swapped debt issued by Greece in dollars and yen for euros using an historical exchange rate, a mechanism … Read more

‘s Dallara Seems To Think So

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Greece has fallen out of the headlines in the past few days due to a supposed resolution of the debt deal, but large hurdles still exist.  Managing Director Dallara of the IFF is under the impression that the current plan will be proved a success next week with investors exchanging their current bonds for a 53.5% haircut.  However the success of this exchange requires a 90% participation rate which is a tall order for many of the hedge funds holding Greek debt.  If participation can be raised above 75% but under 90% then Greece will bring the issue to their … Read more

Greece Steps Down And North Korea Takes The Stage

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Interactions with North Korea are a bit of an unknown under the new leadership of Kim Jong Un, but the fourth largest military in the world is stepping into the limelight as Greece leaves center stage.  Annual joint military drills between the US and South Korea take place this week and North Korea isn’t happy.  This could spell trouble should the  young dictator with something to prove back himself into a corner.. “The war drills are an unpardonable infringement upon the sovereignty and dignity” of North Korea, the official Korean Central News Agency said today in an editorial. “The army … Read more

Paulson Calling For A Greek Default

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According to Paulson & Co., a hard default by Greece could spell economic disaster of unprecedented proportion along with the breakup of the Euro.  In his 2011 recap letter to clients, he estimates $117 billion will be needed to recapitalize banks and satisfy other monetary needs. Paulson & Co.: “We believe a Greek payment default could be a greater shock to the system than Lehman’s failure, immediately causing global economies to contract and markets to decline,” the hedge fund said in the letter, a copy of which was obtained by Bloomberg News. The euro is “structurally flawed and will likely eventually … Read more

Greece: 20% Cut in Minimum Wage and 15,000 Public Sector Jobs Lost? Ouch..

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Prime Minister Papademos, Finance Minister Venizelos, and Greek Bank Governor Provopoulos are expected to sign a draft agreement to secure a $172 billion dollar rescue plan desperately needed by the insolvent country.  However a couple of stipulations in the document are sure to create backlash, specifically the large cut to the minimum wage and the loss of 15,000 public sector jobs. From Businessweek: Greece will pledge permanent spending cuts, including lower pension payments and a 20 percent reduction in the minimum wage, as the economy contracts this year at a faster pace than originally estimated, according to the draft of … Read more

France Said to Seek Faster Start to EU Iran Oil Embargo

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Oil markets see a bit of a boost from France’s push toward cutting the grace period before implementing a ban on Iranian crude in half, breaking a 4 day loosing streak. Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) — France is pushing for faster enforcement of the European Union’s proposed ban on oil imports from Iran, two officials with knowledge of the matter said. France wants the embargo to be delayed by no more than three months to allow nations including Greece, Italy and Spain to find alternative supplies, according to a French government official, who declined to be identified, citing state rules. While … Read more

Finacial Reform in Greece

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Speaking before Parliament’s plenary session, Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos referred to the finance ministry’s draft bill stressing that “the scenery should change” and underlined that “this transitional period will have to be managed with prudence, professionalism, caution, consensus and a sense of responsibility.” “The months of August and September should be exemplary in terms of swiftness,” he said, responding to criticism by opposition parties regarding the procedures followed. “We are caught in an worldwide vortex and we have to utilise the opportunities created by us for us. We should be reliable as regards our obligations towards our lenders and meet … Read more

Will The U.S. Default Before Greece?

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    Will The U.S. Default Before Greece? By Dirk Van Dijk on July 18, 2011 | More Posts By Dirk Van Dijk | Zacks.com    I thought this was an interesting article on default and earnings by Van Dijk “The fundamental backing for the market continues to be solid. It is important to keep your eyes on the prize. There’s lots of news out there, and much of it is more dramatic than earnings results, but rarely does it have more significance for your portfolio. Earnings are, and are going to remain, the single most important thing for the … Read more