futures

What Does a Third Carrier Battle Group in the Gulf Mean?

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Having already recently warned the US (Jan 3), Iran is certainly not going to appreciate the addition of a third Carrier Battle Group around the Strait of Hormuz which was announced yesterday on Navaltoday.com. Generally a Battle Group makes for a bit of a procession.  Although it varies depending on the mission, the structure of a Group generally consists of: the aircraft carrier itself, two offensive guided-missle cruisers to engage land targets, two destroyers for defensive maneuvers against submarines and aircraft, a frigate to protect from submarine attacks, two submarines also for defensive purposes, and a supply ship to provide support … Read more

Iran, Nuclear Policy, and America: An Investment Opportunity In Disaster?

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  We have a delicate balancing act at hand between the threat of an emerging nuclear power, our rapacious thirst for oil, and responsible diplomatic policy.  The consternation in the air is palpable, bringing to mind Buffet’s famous words “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”.  So how does one put such words of wisdom into an actionable trade idea?  Since going long nuclear fallout seems short sighted, let’s look at how to take advantage of a potential event driven jump in the price of oil once we fully grasp the situation at hand. At … Read more

The Ban on Iran: Tehran continues with threats

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As promised, the European Union followed through with their promise to ban all oil imports from Iran today in an effort to halt the country’s nuclear development program.  The halt on oil was accompanied by a number of other provisions including sanctions on trading with their central bank.  Just days after the US, French, and British militaries sent a flotilla of warships through the gulf, the combined effect of the ban and military actions are sure to add pressure to our already tense relationship with Iran who reiterated their threat of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz.  Markets responded … Read more