Other than the occasional headline, the Iran embargo is a distant memory. And oil markets seemed to forget that an increasing oil reserve is a direct result of preparing for such an embargo. Just because reserve levels happened to beat expectations (it’s not like analysts regularly and accurately deal with embargo situations anyways), is it reason for a 2% or more correction in USO? I doubt it.
Despite our massive emergency oil reserves (see here), the IMF estimates a halt in Iran crude could produce a rather dramatic effect in the price of oil: “If Iran halts exports to countries without offsets from other sources it would likely trigger an “initial” oil price jump of 20 to 30 percent, or about $20 to $30 a barrel, the IMF said in its first public comment on a possible Iranian oil supply disruption.” “Financial sanctions against Tehran may be ‘tantamount to an oil embargo’ and would imply supply declines of about 1.5 million barrels per day from the world’s … Read more
As promised, the European Union followed through with their promise to ban all oil imports from Iran today in an effort to halt the country’s nuclear development program. The halt on oil was accompanied by a number of other provisions including sanctions on trading with their central bank. Just days after the US, French, and British militaries sent a flotilla of warships through the gulf, the combined effect of the ban and military actions are sure to add pressure to our already tense relationship with Iran who reiterated their threat of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets responded … Read more