crude oil

Super spike may lead to super correction

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Looking at this chart makes one think that what goes up must come down. Is it possible that the super spike in oil prices has come to an end due to  greater fuel efficient driven by CAFE standards and technological breakthroughs like horizontal drilling and fracking?  Are we going to undergo a long period of moderate to sharply declining crude prices?  Look at the Case-Shiller Home Price Indices during the same period.  There is some correlation but crude went up a far greater percentage.  Is this all emerging market demand and supply issues?  Is there more speculation than meets the … Read more

IAEA Gets Nowhere With Iran Nuclear Talks

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While Iran’s willingness to reopen talks with the International Atomic Energy Agency about their nuclear program was a surprise, it seems that the motion was mostly for show.    Several rounds of discussions yielded no access to a military site in Parchin which is suspected to be a weapons development facility.  There has been no agreement on further discussing the matter.  Light crude is hovering close to $106 a barrel today, so much for  Prince Alwaleed’s promise to keep oil under the $100 a barrel mark. From FT: “The International Atomic Energy Agency has reported that it held a “disappointing” … Read more

The Ban on Iran: Tehran continues with threats

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As promised, the European Union followed through with their promise to ban all oil imports from Iran today in an effort to halt the country’s nuclear development program.  The halt on oil was accompanied by a number of other provisions including sanctions on trading with their central bank.  Just days after the US, French, and British militaries sent a flotilla of warships through the gulf, the combined effect of the ban and military actions are sure to add pressure to our already tense relationship with Iran who reiterated their threat of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz.  Markets responded … Read more

Index Funds, Where Are We Now?

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Index Funds, Where Are We Now?   While following important economic news as it continually streams through headlines, its akin to wrapping your mouth around a fire hose to quench your thirst; however it’s essential to consider how these developments are affecting your investments. Take a look at how a couple of major indexes and index funds have performed since the beginning of the year…   PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE:UUP) -1.53% U.S. Equity: SPDRS S&P 500 Index (NYSE:SPY) -1.22% Technology: PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq:QQQ) 0.94% Europe, Australia-Asia iShares MSCI EAFE Index (NYSE:EFA) -15.77% Energy: United States Oil (NYSE:USO) -1.82% Precious Metals: iShares Comex Gold Trust (NYSE:IAU) +9.57% Fixed Income: iShares Barclays … Read more

‘m selling out soon

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This is a checklist I use to quickly come to a conclusion on a stock.  I score a stock, each line getting a 1, 0, or -1.  A stock  that scored 1 on each line would be a perfect 10.  Buy it! Some of these items are quite subjective.  For example how would I score Cash Flow?  If a company’s cash flow is much lower than it’s reported earnings, that raises a flag and I would score it a -1.  If there are more insiders buying than selling, I would score it a 1.  If there are no apparent catalysts … Read more

Commodity Flash Crash Part II – Senators Demand Immediate Position Limits In Crude Oil

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Feeling the fury of this bipolar market, the liquidation surge has arrived, right at the front door of the commodities family, with an emphasis on crude oil, gas, and silver. What started off as a sharp correction in silver is quickly turning into a sell-off of historic proportions.  With a four-day decline of almost 30% the selloff in silver is one of the most severe selloffs in the history of the metal’s futures contract. Sheer panic at the CME, 5 margin hikes in 8 days on Silver futures, is unheard of!!

Although we saw signs of a recovery early this week, it was Deja vu in the commodities markets today, with another flash crash similar to the one last Thursday. Crude-oil futures settled below $100 a barrel Wednesday, and gasoline plunged nearly 8%, after the CME Group briefly halted trading in oil, heating-oil and gasoline futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange after the June gasoline contract hit its daily price limit. The CME also boosted daily price limits for crude oil to $20 and for heating oil and gasoline to 50 cents. According to James Williams, an economist at WTRG Economics “A short trading halt only occurs when there is high volatility in the price to give the market a little breathing space.”

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New IQ Global Oil Small Cap ETF Is A Viable Alternative

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Index IQ launched IQ Global Oil Small Cap ETF (IOIL) last Thursday (5/5/11), the first ETF to target small cap stocks in the global oil industry.  The underlying index defines small caps as stocks in the bottom 10% of the entire oil industry’s market capitalization.  The sub-sector breakdown shows Refining & Marketing at 40.5%, Exploration & Production 36.9%, and Equipment, Services & Drilling 22.6%.

The fund’s 61 holdings are weighted by float-adjusted market capitalization.  While no stock is supposed to exceed a 10% allocation at the quarterly rebalancing, presently no holdings need to be capped.  The largest position is Sunoco Inc (SUN) at 6.2%, followed by Oceaneering International Inc (OII) 5.3%, Core Laboratories (CLB) 5.2%, Tesoro Corp (TSO) 4.5%, Petrominerales Ltd (PMGLF) 4.3%, and Alliance Oil Company Ltd (ALLZF) 3.9%.

The IOIL portfolio currently spans 14 countries, including both developed and emerging markets.  I was somewhat surprised to see Thailand with the third largest allocation but Russia and Mexico not represented at all.  My guess is that this reflects the large size of oil-related companies in those places.  The rest of the list was no surprise with the U.S. at 45.1%, Canada 11.7%, Thailand 7.5%, Colombia 4.3%, Japan 4.0%, Sweden 3.9%, U.K. 3.9%, Finland 3.0%, and six others combining for 13.5%.

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XOIL Tries to Be Spot-On Spot

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  Global X launched a new equity ETF on Tuesday (3/15/11) that attempts to achieve high correlation to crude oil spot prices. Global X Oil Equities ETF (XOIL) provides exposure to pure-play oil companies with significant oil reserves that are typically not involved in other industries such as natural gas or downstream operations.

The underlying Solactive Global Oil Equities Index tracks the performance of 25 equal-weighted companies that have shown a high correlation to the spot price of oil. Constituents are ranked and chosen by their correlation to the spot price of oil in the quarter preceding the selection day. The index has a global mandate, but only North American stocks passed the most recent correlation screen with 80% currently allocated to the U.S. and 20% to Canada.

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