Insider Buying Week 3-11-22

Curious how well insiders are doing with their buys?  Scroll the significant buys of the last year. And what to do about the Russian Ukraine war. It will get worse and it will drag China into an ever-deepening conflict with the West and Democratic regimes. The declaration of mutual support that Russia and China published in a 5000-word memorandum entitled Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China on the International Relations Entering a New Era and the Global Sustainable Development was reminiscent of the Axis power alignment with Germany and Japan at the onset of WWII. If we’re headed to WWW3 is that a reason … Read more

Insider Buying week 12-17-21

Curious how well insiders are doing with their buys? Click on this link or image above to scroll the significant buys of the last year. Microsoft dipped 0.3% Friday, bringing its weekly decline to nearly 5.5%. Alphabet and Apple fell more than 4%. A handful of tech stocks have been propelling the major averages all year and it’s only natural to see some profit-taking.  I tried to borrow some ARKK stock but there was none available to short. Betting against Infinite multiples has been the most reliable trade of the last month. There was somewhat of a short squeeze on … Read more

Insider Buying week 12-10-21 Closer Inspection showed the Naked Underbelly

Curious how well insiders are doing with their buys? Click on this link or image above to scroll the significant buys of the last year. Infinite multiples and the greater fool theory are showing cracks in the foundation of relative valuation yet the major indices staged a remarkable comeback up 3.82% while insiders nearly doubled that with the average return up 3.82%. A closer inspection though showed the naked underbelly of this market. Momentum favorites are coming under attack and insiders are making a futile attempt to turn the tide. DocuSign and Paypal insiders are nibbling but this won’t likely … Read more

Insider Buying week 11-19-21- Insiders are Stepping up

Curious how well insiders are doing with their buys? Click on this link or image above to scroll the significant buys of the last year. This report is going to be delayed due to a funeral I had to attend for my dear first cousin’s, husband, who passed away at 75years of age. It brought me back to Savannah, my hometown, on the marsh and waterways of Skidaway Island. I will get to the opinion pieces as I write the Insiders Report for myself. It’s my way of processing insider buying.  And there was a lot of it, this time … Read more

The Bold, the Inexplicable and the Good Soldiers- Insider Buying Week 9-17-21

For trade, details click on this link to the trades.  There were quite a few buys last week and it took me longer than usual to update it. Also, I will provide a brief recap of the conversation I had with the Chief Medical Officer, Alexander A. Zukiwski at Casi Pharmaceuticals. Casi is a U.S. NASDAQ-listed biotech selling exclusively to the increasingly affluent Chinese middle class.  CASI is a penny stock that will turn into $dollars if things pan out the way I think. They have one approved revenue-producing product with an exciting pipeline. There is a high probability they … Read more

‘s ,You Should ask the SEC where they Were?

For trade, details click on this link to the trades  The efficient market hypothesis assumes that all current information is reflected in the current price of a security. According to the EMH, stocks always trade at their fair value on exchanges, making it impossible for investors to purchase undervalued stocks or sell stocks for inflated prices. When we look at insider buying and selling,  we are examining and theorizing the possible motives of the people that know the company the best.  What information do they possess that is not already priced into the stock?     Name: Moskovitz Dustin A … Read more

Insider Buying week 6-18-21

For trade, details click on this link to the trades  All the talking heads made fools of themselves last week.  Powel said the economy was doing great; the Dow plummeted, its worst week since October of last year. The market marched in lockstep, giving up on the cyclical recovery trade, hammering banks, energy, material sectors, and lifted the neglected technology growth sector. The Fed said they got it that inflation was running hotter than they thought, and they might tweak interest rates higher a wee bit sooner.  Instead of interest rates going up, long-term interest rates plummeted, and the yield … Read more

The Willing Suspension of Disbelief- Insiders are Scarce Week Ending July 10th

 Insiders buys were far and few in between last week. You can see them at this link to the trades- The most notable and outlandish was Harold Hamm’s monster buy of $47.6 Million of Continental Resources CLR at $17.77.  This is all the more remarkable since June, Hamm has bought $178 Million of this beleaguered oil and gas Bakken fracking pioneer.  Hamm has tons of this stock. Hamm is a big supporter of Trump who as much as he professes his love for the industry, the price of crude has cratered on his regime. Perhaps he feels oil will … Read more

Reality Check- Insider Buying Week Ending 6-26-20

It was not a fun week for longs as Coronavirus is on the rise and insiders are blacked out before 2nd quarter earnings. I doubt that insiders were chomping on the bit to buy as the market rebound from the March lows has them unloading their holdings at a record pace. There were a few buys of interest and we highlight them here.  Until we figure out why our embedded Google sheet is not displaying in the RSS feed in our MailChimp blast, here is the link to the trades- Founder and former CEO Eric Lefkofsky bought $5.39 Million worth … Read more

Another Roller Coaster Week on the Coronavirus Train- Insider Buying is Picking Up

The headlines don’t stop. Most of them scary and getting worse by the day. That didn’t stop insiders from buying falling knives but not in the quantity I’m looking for to mark the all clear.  The pace of buying is clearly picking up, though IT SEEMS that Friday the 28th was the climax and insiders paused as the news headlines worsened about the virus.  In times of increasing investor panic, insiders will restore confidence, especially when they buy across the board. In this post, we examine insiders purchasing $200,000 of more of their company’s shares, looking for clues that may … Read more

Occidental Petroleum Insiders Say Enough is Enough- Our Stock is too Cheap to Ignore

Insider Buying Week Ending June 14, 2019 Occidental Petroleum insiders say enough is enough, quit trashing our stock by collectively buying over $4 million worth in the open market. Oil stocks are big underperformers but ever since Oxy announced the purchase of Anadarko, the stock has been in free fall. American Asset Trust insiders buying at new highs and continue to get rewarded at this diversified REIT. REMAX founder and once barred insider Linder returns with a vengeance scooping up another $2.9 million adding to his buys from last week. Guess CEO increases his holdings by over 230% buying nearly … Read more

U.S. Stocks Have Now Fallen For 5 Weeks In A Row but Some Insiders are Buying

The market gets scarier by the day.  Wealthy individuals pulled their money out at record rates not seen in seven years. Black swans seem to be showing up in multiple corners of the world, China trade war, Iran real war, just to mention a few. None the less that didn’t stop a few insiders with conviction loading up on their company’s stock. In fact, it’s the most buying we have seen in some time. We highlight those over $200,000 in this report.

Notable Insider Buys and Sales Week Ending 4-6-19

It was a dull week on insider buying, the week before.  Last week would make you think it was a crime to buy your own company’s stock.   Of course, we are in the throes of the 1st quarter earnings blackout, but insiders still find ways to unload their holdings though.

Buys

WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance-Walgreens Boots Alliance Q2 ‘was a very disappointing quarter for us’ according to management’s earnings conference call.  The stock was pummeled with numerous analyst downgrades.  The stock got cheap enough for the COO, to pull the trigger and bought $1 million worth of WBA at $54.58.  We are taking this lay-up but can’t stay we will stay here for long.

Rev Revlon Chairman of the Board, Perlman continues to pour money into the cosmetics giant. He purchased two lots, one for $2.34 million at $20.22, the other one of $1.4 million at $21.10.

COST Costco Wholesale A director bought 3000 shares near a 52 week high at $242.85.  It’s hard to put a lot of conviction into this purchase even though it was a sizeable amount, $727k. Buying market darlings at 52 week highs is not your typical MO for an insider.

RMBL Rumble On Dir Dixon bought 50,415 at $4.77 of this motorcycle marketplace.  We are doing more research on this name but it looks interesting. We are trying to figure out where Ebay Marketplace and Carvana’s success could transfer to this name.

Sales

Not much of interest here either. Insiders continue to unload stock using the Rule 10b5-1 loophole that allows insiders to sell stock right through any imposed earnings blackout period. It’s hard to read anything much into these sales other than the fact, that I would rather see insiders buying than selling their stock. The timing of these transactions shed little light on short term price movements, though.

In this report, we examined open market purchases from employees and directors.  Insiders sell stock for many reasons, but they generally buy for just one – to make money.  As a standard, we only look at material amounts of money, $200 thousand or more, as anything less could just be window dressing. The bar is different from selling because the natural state of management is to be sellers. This is because most companies provide significant amounts of management compensation packages as stock. Therefore, with selling, we analyze for unusual patterns, such as insiders selling 25 percent or more of their holdings or multiple insiders selling near 52-week lows. Another red flag is large planned sale programs that start without warning. We generally ignore 10 percent shareholders as they tend to be OPM (other people’s money) and not the SMART money we are trying to go to school on.  Although this info is available for free from the SEC’s Web site, Edgar, we subscribe to the Washington Service as they provide a way to manage and make sense of the vast realms of data.

To learn more about our strategy, visit our website here. We welcome your comments on our analysis. We may own positions, long or short, in any of these names and are under no obligation to disclose that.

Notable Insider Buys and Sales Week Ending 3-29-19

Talk about a dull week on insider buying.  This is all that stuck out. Of course we are in the throes of the 1st quarter earnings blackout, but still, this is very thin. Insiders still find ways to unload their holdings though.

Buys

ETRN Equitrans Midstream Corp– three insiders bought $446.K of this midstream natural gas company. On February 21, 2018, EQT Corporation (EQT) announced plans to separate its separately managed gathering, transmission and storage, and water services operations (Midstream Business) from its natural gas, oil and natural gas liquids development, production and sales and commercial operations (Upstream Business). The separation of the Midstream Business from the Upstream Business will culminate in the spinoff from EQT of a new company named Equitrans Midstream Corporation. Equitrans Midstream will trade on the NYSE under the ticker symbol ETRN.

CLR Continental Resources Harold Hamm CEO bought $34 million at $42.95.  Hamm has been a consistent buyer of stock in the last 5 years and has yet to make any headway in these purchases. We see no reason why this latest buy would be any different.
Sales

Insiders always find ways to sell with  “planned sales” which in reality is just a legal loophole around the SEC restrictions on insider selling during earnings blackout periods.  Some of the more notable ones are described below.

ULTA Ulta Beauty Inc. Insiders dumped a bunch of ULTA the week ending 3/22/19 and last week was no different. Five insiders took advantage of lifetime high prices to unload $199.8  million worth of this beauty chain. As of November 3, 2018, the company operated 1,163 retail stores across 50 states.

We think they have the right idea and would be sellers ourselves. Ulta has had stellar growth but its slowing.

CRM Salesforce Eight insiders sold $19.1 million worth of stock through a combination of sales and option exercises.  Salesforce is a bloated overpriced cloud-based CRM.  It invented the field so there are a lot of entrenched, hard to switch users but now there are many cheaper, viable competitors. Eventually, the market will perceive the moat is draining and the emperor has no clothes. This is a short but beware the market can remain irrational longer than you can be solvent.

SMAR Smartsheet Inc Five insiders sold a combination of stock and options worth $8.7 million. Smartsheet Inc. provides cloud-based platform for execution of work. It enables teams and organizations to plan, capture, manage, automate, and report on work. The company offers Smartdashboards that provides the status of work to align individuals, managers, and executive

 

In this report, we examined open market purchases from employees and directors.  Insiders sell stock for many reasons, but they generally buy for just one – to make money.  As a standard, we only look at material amounts of money, $200 thousand or more, as anything less could just be window dressing. The bar is different from selling because the natural state of management is to be sellers. This is because most companies provide significant amounts of management compensation packages as stock. Therefore, with selling, we analyze for unusual patterns, such as insiders selling 25 percent or more of their holdings or multiple insiders selling near 52-week lows. Another red flag is large planned sale programs that start without warning. We generally ignore 10 percent shareholders as they tend to be OPM (other people’s money) and not the SMART money we are trying to go to school on.  Although this info is available for free from the SEC’s Web site, Edgar, we subscribe to the Washington Service as they provide a way to manage and make sense of the vast realms of data.

To learn more about our strategy, visit our website here. We welcome your comments on our analysis. We may own positions, long or short, in any of these names and are under no obligation to disclose that.

Why the Collapse in the Price of Oil is Reminiscent of Previous Financial Bubbles

Bubbles all have the same characteristics of unrealistic expectations but are incredibly difficult to recognize until after the effect. Prices in an economic bubble can fluctuate erratically, and become impossible to predict from supply and demand alone. While some economists deny that bubbles occur,  the cause of bubbles remains disputed by those who are convinced that asset prices often deviate strongly from intrinsic values.-Wikipedia 2008 housing bubble and ensuing financial market rout “We recognized that, despite our suspicions, it was very difficult to definitively identify a bubble until after the fact,” -Alan Greenspan 2000 Dot Com bubble In  2000, AOL purchased Time Warner for US$164 billion. Shortly thereafter the bubble burst and technology stocks suffered a remarkable … Read more

Is it time to buy oil and gas stocks? Well,the results of insider buying might surprise you

The big name E&P companies apparently don’t think their stocks are cheap enough yet to buy. Buying is sparse considering the meltdown in share prices.  The following are the brave souls who are catching a falling knife.  Most are in secondary names, many of which you won’t recognize. BCEI BONANZA CREEK ENERGY INC $2B BOONE LYNN 12/5/2014 Purchase 11,000 $21.01 BCEI BONANZA CREEK ENERGY INC $2B CARTY RICHARD J 12/5/2014 Purchase 30,000 $20.90 CRC CALIFORNIA RESOURCES CORP n/a KORELL HAROLD M 12/5/2014 Purchase 100,000 $6.31 CRC CALIFORNIA RESOURCES CORP n/a ALBRECHT WILLIAM E 12/1/2014 Purchase 20,000 $7.48 CAM CAMERON INTERNATIONAL … Read more

The blatant injustice of US Government oil policy

If China was dumping a product in the US market, and businesses in the US were not allowed to sell a similar one in the Chinese market, politicians would be up in arms at the injustice of it all.  Well, that’s exactly what’s happening in the oil market now. To provide some perspective, this is not a new issue.  Back in 1999, The U.S. Commerce Department on 9 August dismissed an antidumping and countervailing duty petition filed by a coalition of independent U.S. oil producers against Venezuela, Mexico, Iraq and Kuwait, saying that there was not enough industry support for the petition … Read more

‘s mine

It’s hard to find the contrarian view in the oil patch these days but some of our contrarian observations are: A barrel of oil is worth far more in the U.S. than in other parts of the world. The U.S .is the most stable place in the world with large proved reserves. Most discovered deposits of oil are in politically unstable countries or in hard to reach locations with undeveloped infrastructure like the Arctic or ocean floor Large oil and gas exploration companies like Exxon, BP, Royal Dutch, etc. plan capital budgets for decades out. If the price of WTI … Read more

Crude oil in free fall creates long term buying opportunity

I think the sharp drop in crude and the decline in some US centric shale plays creates a buying opportunity.  We bought Anadarko, Apache, Continental Resources, EOG, a little Chesapeake and quite a bit of Occidental today.  It’s a falling knife for sure but we are probably a lot closer to the bottom than the top. We don’t pretend to be able to portend the future price of crude. I don’t think the CEO of Exxon can do that.  What is clear though is that the US has become the most reliable, safest place in the world to explore and … Read more

Notes from Enercom 2012

First of all men’s suits are back in force.  Everyone is wearing a suit.  My big takeway besides men’s haberdashery is that every single company presenting (and there are a lot of them- just about every oil and gas company you never heard of plus a few majors like APA, APC, Petrobras, etc.) is talking about how they have aggressively switched away from drilling for natural gas to oily liquids.  Everyone is bragging about how fast they are making the transition.  Considering it is currently against the law to export raw crude from the U.S, there will undoubtedly be a … Read more