Insider Buying 02-21-25 Welcome to Chaos 2.0

I refer to the first Trump administration as Chaos 1.0.  Many good things can come from disruption but generally the markets like predictability and order. It was only a worldwide pandemic that upstaged the near constant firing and turnover in the Administration.   It was the real-world political version of the popular reality TV show, The Apprentice.  According to the Brookings Institute, Trump’s A team turnover from year to year was 92%, far higher than any of the last six Presidents. Now what will be next? Worldwide war and the collapse of the post-World War II order?  Or as Donald Trump … Read more

A Few Insider Buys in some Beleaguered Stocks Week Ending May 9th 2020

Private prison operator GEO Geo Group CEO Anthony Quinn continues to buy stock in this out of favor REIT play yielding an astounding 16.7% on Friday’s close. In the most recent 10Q the Company stated that Covid-19 pandemic adds a material concern to the financials. I think the stock reflects that with its yield. On March 24th they were rewarded  with a five year 90-100,000 participant contract with U.S. immigration services.  This $2.8 million purchase at $11.31 is the latest in large buys. He bought $1.2 Million on 3/12 at $11.65 and $8.5 million at $16.58 on 2-24-20. The stock … Read more

How AIG Could Achieve Insurance Greatness

It seems that I can’t escape AIG anymore.  I asked my kids (who are still at home) today, “Of all the jobs I had, where did I get treated the worst?”  The oldest answered “AIG.”  He was born shortly after I left AIG in 1992.

I guess I made some of the wounds obvious enough.  I don’t believe in “payback,” I believe in “Love your enemies,” and “Be honest.”  Thus I find it odd that I am being ever more sought out by reporters on any AIG news.

Granted, I’ve written on underreserving by AIG, the problems they had at their operating insurance subsidiaries during the financial crisis, which got picked up by SIGTARP.

What has prompted recent inquiries, is the sale of stock at $29/share,  at only a 1.6% discount to the prior closing price.  That price was a hodgepodge between what the market would bear, and what would give the government a “profit.”  Bad idea in my opinion; it would have been better to price the deal lower, say $28.50, where the government took a loss, but where the market might have driven the price up.  A 1.6% gap is marginal and would invite sellers. $28.50 would be over 3% and would invite buyers.

Now, some sympathy for Bruce Berkowitz — He saw book value decline by almost $1 today, from $47.32 to $46.35.  I don’t know if he was buying as the largest private shareholder of AIG, but he was certainly disappointed by the company offering shares.  Why offer shares at less than 2/3rds of book?

Easy, because AIG can’t borrow or issue any other security.  But that is a signal to what the company is worth.  I mean at worst, AIG could have procured a secured loan to  provide $3 billion, offering a valuable subsidiary as collateral.  They chose to dilute, which tells you what the stock is likely worth.

Also, with such a large fall in price after the offering the next offering should come at a larger discount to the recent market price.  Those that were burned in this offering will be less willing to step up and take immediate losses.

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