The Insider Report

Since we know Germany has no plans to allow the ECB to bail out countries, there seems little hope for European banks that own lots of sovereign debts from countries under siege.  So if you can find ways to short European banks, this may be a good trade.   We own puts on Deutsche Bank (DB)and Barclays(BCS)  The weakest ones are the French banks but there are no ADRs to trade.   Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told Republican senators the Fed plans no additional aid to European banks amid the region’s sovereign debt crisis, according to two lawmakers … Read more

This is our favorite oil and gas stock, mostly oil.  It has massive insider buying.  Chairman of the Board Hess bought 174,900 shares back in September at $57.17.

No Easy—or Cheap—Remedy for Volatility By BEVERLY GOODMAN | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR Lots of new funds promise to remove uncomfortable price changes from your portfolio, but most are unproven and could be bad for your financial health. The only thing more alarming than this year’s market volatility has been some of the unsolicited advice given to investors who don’t even understand the problem. Several mainstream publications and television pundits have casually —and clearly without the benefit of much research—recommended that investors wary of market volatility try an array of expensive and unproven products. Among them: inversely correlated funds, which aim to … Read more

Just ask JP Morgan security analyst that put out this bold buy recommendation literally minutes before Texas Instruments warned and stock shed 8.15% after hours.   Hot Research PM | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 8, 2011 Texas Instruments May Boost Q4 Guidance J.P. Morgan says the chip giant will see strength in its OMAP products. Texas Instruments (TXN: NYSE) By J.P. Morgan Securities ($30.67, Dec. 8, 2011) After the close Thursday, Texas Instruments is scheduled to provide an update on business conditions for the fourth quarter. We expect TI (ticker: TXN) to raise the midpoint of its fourth-quarter revenue guidance from $3.4 billion (down … Read more

It’s interesting to note Kyle Bass’s, Hayman Capital Advisors Form 13F filings.  I’ve posted his most recent one from Sept 30, 2011.  .  Now I’ve posted his Sept 30th 2010 return below where he had just a fraction of the money he manages now.  The more bearish Bass gets, the more money he raises. Perhaps he’s more wily than smart.  Hayman Capital Advisors AUM based on these filings has risen almost ten fold.  The most recent 13F filing counts $739.19 million dollars.  A far cry from the $73.4 million in the Sept 30th 2010 filing.  There’s nothing to suggest great … Read more

Can’t anybody play this game?  In pro baseball, most hitters will tell you they usually don’t want to know whether a teammate thinks he’s stolen the catcher’s sign for the next pitch. Not only is there a risk that the filched signal is wrong, but the input adds complexity to an already daunting task. Hitters may make an educated guess on what pitch might come, but their main job is to attempt a disciplined reaction, spoiling or avoiding great pitches, and pouncing on mistakes. via Can’t Anybody Play This Game? – Barrons.com.

A Snapshot Of Ludicrous Volatility: Since May 1 The S&P Has Travelled 1234 Points Yet Is Unchanged For The YearSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 12/01/2011 – 20:47Bear Market European Central Bank Moving Averages Recession recovery Risk Management VolatilityTo suggest financial markets have been volatile as of late is simply a wild understatement.  Although weve certainly seen this type of volatility in terms of percentage moves over short spaces of time in the past, we cant remember when weve last seen this degree of volatility within the context of whipsaw back and forth movement.  Although it may sound hard to believe, … Read more

Does the Fed face increased risk under the swap lines? Since the Fed isn’t lending to banks directly, the risk is tiny. The ECB is responsible for giving the Fed its dollars back, so the central bank would have to collapse for the Fed to take a loss. The Fed also isn’t exposed to changes in currency rates since the Fed gets back the amount of dollars it loans out. It also earns interest on the loans.   Okay, what’s wrong with this picture?  What if the banks or bank that the ECB loan the dollars out to go bust? … Read more

Although we did not outperform the market today (the only way you could have done that was all in and then some) we managed decent gains.  Surprisingly some of our largest positions did not move much at all.  Hess registered a decent 4.76% gain but Kellogg only went up 1.9% versus the S&P 4.33% gain.  We recently picked up the cereal maker because we figured the way the middle class was shrinking , more and more people would be eating cereal for meals besides breakfast.  All kidding aside, there’s some truth to that. Kellogg sports a 3.56% dividend yield.  That’s … Read more

Central Banks Move to Calm Fears Markets Rally After Joint Action Aimed at Cushioning Global Effects of Euro Crisis; Fed ‘Prepared’ to Do More if Needed By JON HILSENRATH And JEFFREY SPARSHOTT Is the move by the Fed, ECB and other central banks to help shore up global economies more substance or more symbolic? WSJ Chief Economics Correspondent Jon Hilsenrath checks in on Mean Street to discuss. (Photo: Getty Images) The world’s major central banks launched a joint action to provide cheap, emergency U.S. dollar loans to banks in Europe and elsewhere, a sign of growing alarm among policy makers … Read more

Italy’s debt must be restructured It is increasingly clear that Italy’s public debt is unsustainable and needs an orderly restructuring to avert a disorderly default. The eurozone’s wish to exclude private sector involvement from the design of the new European Stability Mechanism is pig-headed – and lacks all credibility. With public debt at 120 per cent of gross domestic product, real interest rates close to five per cent and zero growth, Italy would need a primary surplus of five per cent of gross domestic product – not the current near-zero – merely to stabilise its debt. Soon real rates will be higher … Read more

Complete List Of European Sovereign Events Through The End Of 2011Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/28/2011 22:17 -0500Belgium Bond Deutsche Bank European Central Bank Finland fixed France Greece Gross Domestic Product Ireland Italy Portugal recovery UnemploymentWe wont focus too much on the reasons why Deutsche Bank just cut its forecast for European 2012 GDP from +0.4% to -0.5%: needless to say it is yet another ploy to force the ECBs hand to print, and not even DB is ashamed to admit it: “The good news is that the worse the economic outlook becomes, the more likely it is the ECB … Read more

Goldman: “As The Endgame Approaches, The Rally In AAA-Euro Area Sovereign Bonds No Longer Seems Sustainable” Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/27/2011 19:06 -0500 Bank Failures Baseline Scenario Bond European Central Bank France Germany Goldman Sachs goldman sachs Italy Lehman Meltdown National Debt Option Skew Raiffeisen Recession Risk Management Sovereign Debt Sovereigns Swiss Franc Goldman Sachs has for the time being been very quiet in joining all of its colleagues from around the street in screaming for an immediate intervention by the ECB or else. The reasons are glaringly obvious: with a Goldman alum in charge of the ECB, and … Read more

Playing Defense Amid Debt Drama Investors Turning To Israel, Lehman In Hunt for Refuge From Market Woes ArticleBy MATT WIRZ The hunt for the perfect trade has some investors straying far from the herd. They are scouring the nooks and crannies of the investing world, making bets on Israeli bonds, the fate of Iceland’s banking system and the likelihood of payouts from the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings. Their quest is to find investments where the value isn’t beholden to the broader market swings fueled by debt woes in Europe and political battles in the U.S. Historically, investors relied on … Read more

Markets are rallying sharply from deeply oversold conditions overnight. No legitimate news organization is picking up this story although we did blog a few days ago that would be a conceivable solution.  Unfortunately the IMF doesn’t have this kind of money, the U.S. House of Representatives would need to approve additional U.S. commitments and Germany will unlikely allow the ECB to print the money it needs to add to the IMF.  We remain unconvinced and are maintaining for now our short euro trade.  Bear markets have vicious short covering rallies.  At any rate it seems a better hedge than shorting … Read more

Utah Law Makes Coins Worth Their Weight in Gold (or Silver) Djamila Grossman for The New York Times Rounds of silver being produced at the Old Glory Mint in Utah. By WILLIAM YARDLEY Published: May 29, 2011 via Utah Law Encourages Gold and Silver Coin Use – NYTimes.com. Anyone know a good place to pick up your gold?

Euro ‘doomed to be a weak currency’ by DAVID HUGHES, Daily Mail Comments (0) Add to My Stories The euro is doomed to be a weak currency indefinitely, according to a crushing assessment by Europe’s most authoritative economists. The single currency will not prosper without sweeping economic reforms across the EU, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development says today. The bombshell verdict punctures the euro-euphoria that greeted the launch of notes and coins in the new currency in 12 EU member states on January 1. Politicians across the Eurozone hailed the launch as a massive success that has given … Read more

      Black Friday 2011: Waffle Maker Riot Caught On Tape.   Wow, I thought the riots in Greece were scary.  This is a full blown riot in a Walmart where apparently there are $2 waffle makers available.  Based on the looks of  these obese people on this video, I never want to eat a waffle again. There may have been record sales on Friday but I doubt if the market will care enough about them to matter.  My guess is that any consumer names rallying on the news will be short seller candidates soon after.  The euro debt … Read more