The Insider Report

by GENE EPSTEIN If you adjust by the consumer price index, the bull market looks way overrated.The Standard & Poors 500 index has “now logged 33 all-time highs this year,” reported the Associated Press on Sept. 5, when the index hit yet another “record close” of 2007.7. Such talk conjures up a revival of the go-go years of the 1990s, when new all-time highs kept recurring.Back in the 90s, however, the new peaks could withstand inflation adjustment and legitimately be new peaks. This years streak of 33 has been merely nominal. In todays dollars, as the table shows, the S&P 500 … Read more

By TIERNAN RAY Sept. 13, 2014 2:42 a.m. ET Apple has a couple of interesting challenges ahead—for itself and its stock. Last week, at a lavish media event in its hometown of Cupertino, Calif., the company’s CEO, Tim Cook, unveiled a product in a new category for Apple (ticker: AAPL), one that has been littered with failures. via Apple: Don’t Listen to the Doomsayers – Barron’s.   I agree with this thesis.  What the doomsayers seem to overlook, is not only Apple the best smartphone company, it’s hands down the best PC company, the best digital music company, the best … Read more

Perhaps the best hope is that Hezbollah, ISIS, Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas and all the extremist kill one another.  Maybe we should give them more time.  Until then, don’t short oil.   Reuters, Beirut Friday, 15 August 2014 The leader of Lebanese group Hezbollah described the radical Islamist movement that has seized territory in Iraq and Syria as a growing “monster” that could threaten Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other Gulf states. via Hezbollah sees ISIS as threat to Gulf, Jordan – Al Arabiya News.

This looks very bad for oracle.  Is this a common occurrence or is this a harbinger of a scorched earth approach to technology rollouts?  Does this portend similar things to what happened to the banks?  Will Oracle and companies like it start being sued under racketeering laws for complex technological solutions that may not work to the customer’s satisfaction?  Of course there are always customer disputes but  I haven’t heard of anything this high profile before. Oregon Attorney General Rosenblum Sues Oracle August 22, 2014 Salem–Oregon Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum today sued Oracle America, Inc., and a number of its high-level … Read more

Crude Oil Inventory Is this email not displaying correctly? View it in your browser. August 20, 2014 CRUDE OIL INVENTORY/’000 bbls (Week Ended 8/15/14) Current: 362,545 Actual Build/(Withdrawal): (4,474) Economist Average Estimate: (1,140) Previous: 367,019 Click here for the chart with five year averages. CRUDE OIL IN THE MEDIA *Colorado Governor Addresses EnerCom’s The Oil & Gas Conference 19® – Oil & Gas 360® After a full morning of investor presentations by leading oil and gas companies including Range Resources (ticker: RRC), Core Laboratories (ticker: CLB) and Whiting Petroleum (ticker: WLL), Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper took the stage during a … Read more

2014 Energy XXI.  Check out this video from CEO John Shiller talking about one of the leading shallow water drillers getting his stock pounded to the ground.  If you are a value buyer and bottom fisher, throw a line out here.  We have a small position that turned profitable yesterday.

One of the foremost mathematicians of our time and the father of quants James Simons – Mathematics, Common Sense, and Good Luck: My Life and Careers Simons has about 9,000 views on YouTube The other is by Ray Dalio, who runs Bridgeport Associates (reportedly the world’s largest hedge fund)  Dalio has a lot more views about 350,000. How the Economic Machine Works Then again you could watch What Does the Fox Say with a 149 million views    

Calendar opportunities Week of October 21 There has been a lack of Government data due to the partial shutdown so economic data will be intensely scrutinized, then out of hand dismissed as being inaccurate or irrelevant depending on the old Wall Street axiom, how can you ‘screw the most people, most of the time’.  After the recent run-up earnings disappointments might offer more pin action than surprises. Earnings season kicks off for real Monday.  This is always a sketchy time for nervous longs.  Follow us on Twitter @saxangle.com for the latest moves we might make. Monday October 21st Maybe we … Read more

I agree, one reason we are fully invested. By E.S. BROWNING CONNECT Associated Press The Washington mess of the past few weeks was ugly and disruptive for financial markets. It could do more damage in December as investors contemplate resumed acrimony when 2014 arrives. Yet it all has a silver lining. ‪ The federal government’s shutdown and threat of default on U.S. debt spawned anxiety among businesses and consumers, hurt the U.S.’s image around the world and took about half a percentage point off fourth-quarter economic growth, economists estimate. But the economy kept growing. Inflation stayed low. And the turmoil … Read more

‘Steve Jobs patent’ upheld by USPTO, ‘massive setback’ for Samsung and Google | TalkAndroid.com. So ironic that on a day when Google stock launched over $100 points and $30 billion in market value, the news that all of Apple’s touch capacitive screen patents were upheld by the USPO on challenge, seem to interest only geeks and me.  We bought more Apple on this news Friday and it is now our largest position by far in the Fund.  After such a momentum trader’s blowup run, Google’s stock could collapse on this news when the talking heads on CNBC and Wall Street … Read more

We are rarely full invested. We are now.  There is a time to press your bet and this is it at least for the next few weeks.  Even now we are not fully invested in equities but have a mixture of REITS, MLPs, beaten down closed in bond funds but we do have a lot of exposure to stocks.  Everything is working.The Fund is having its best month of the year and we are only half into it.   Our investors can check out our latest holdings as always at saxangle.com/portfolio-holdings-10-18-13/. A word of caution, there does seem to be an … Read more

What? No Christmas rally? Going forward, the near-term road map is a bit murky.  The move from ~1675 to the close (~1692) Thurs was a lot about “pain” but it seems like the most inappropriate positioning has been corrected.  Therefore, to get back to ~1700+ will require more clarity out of Washington and given that 1) this 6 week plan is still vague and 2) a big new deadline has now been placed on the calendar (11/22) investors may be reluctant to chase much further from here.  Stepping back, even in a perfect world (i.e. Washington resolution, strong Q3 earnings, moderate Fed policy withdrawal, … Read more

Since now the drama of who Obama will select for the the Fed Reserve head is over, what’s next? I found this good and telling article on Zero Hedge. Selecting The Next Federal Reserve Chair: Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/23/2013 13:28 -0400Alan Greenspan Ben Bernanke Bill Dudley Bond Federal Reserve Goldman Sachs goldman sachs Institutional Investors Intrade Janet Yellen Larry Summers Monetary Policy Nomination Paul Volcker Tim Geithner Volatility Wall Street Journal White HouseinShare Federal Reserve Chairman Bernankes term expires January 31, 2014. While his continuation as Fed chair cannot be ruled out, he has given no public indications that … Read more

What shutdown?  My two kids,14 and 20, asked me what the Government shut down meant.  They never ask me about current events.  They get all the info they need about the world from Facebook and You Tube but they asked me about the shutdown.  First of all there  really is no shutdown, I told them.  I also told them there was not much to worry about yet.  Since we weren’t going to any national parks or D.C, they wouldn’t notice it. I didn’t tell them that if the country didn’t pay its bills, the results would be cataclysmic. I don’t … Read more

In spite of this massive Government attack the stock acts very well.  If anything JP Morgan seems to be hurt more by the very short term reversal the rise of  interest rates than the Government assault.  As a shareholder I would be aggravated that they are settling for such an amount.  Didn’t they get some kind of indemnification when they bought Bear and WAMU at the Government’s behest?  We are buyers below $47 as we have sold Oct 47 Puts short. Government lawyers are backing up the truck again at J.P. Morgan Chase JPM +0.37% to extract another haul from the … Read more

by Henry Blodget I don’t know when Henry finds the time to opine on the market but he’s someone I listen to and respect considering how he was thrown under the bus only to get up even stronger.  But when it comes to his market calls forget it.  He was the analyst that buried more people in the 2000 Dot com crash than anyone else.  In fact he was railroaded out of the business and maybe rightfully so.  So Henry, keep up the great work on Business Insider but leave the market calls to people with a better track record, … Read more

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/22/2013 11:05 -0400 In a world in which all the matters is “scale”, the ability to Martingale down on losing bets as close to infinity as possible something which JPMorgan learned with the London Whale may not be the best strategy especially when one cant print money out of thin air, and being as close to the Feds Heidelberg rotary printer as possible, it was expected that that “expert” of government backstops and bailouts, the Octogenarian of Omaha, Warren Buffett, would have only kind words for Ben Bernanke. But not even we predicted that Buffett … Read more

I’m not trying to find something to say about the iPhone. I just can’t help myself.  Apple is one of those things you seem to have to talk about.  Like your health, your job, or your lover you suspect is cheating on you.  I am not even pissed about the stock.  We blew out of Apple before the Friday open when it was in the green, then bought some back $7 bucks lower after the close.  Damn day traders.  That’s a shame because I despise day traders but there’s no denying it.   Apple has become a day trader’s form of … Read more

My wall of worry is growing. 1Debt whatever 2.Bernanke flip flop 3. October health care surprise 4. October surprise 5.  Too many IPOs 6. Too many insiders selling 7. No one buying 8. Earnings warnings 9. Momentum stocks of all stripes are soaring, 10. Let me think about it.  There must be something else.

Do You Have A Million Dollar Problem?   According to the Federal Reserve’s inflation forecast of 2% per year your $1 million today will be just $817,301 in ten years.  That’s probably optimistic.* Maybe your investment advisor can help you keep up? Not likely. 80% of professionals don’t even beat the market according to SPIVA.* You say that’s all right.  You abandoned these overpaid do-nothing advisors years ago and now you manage your own account with low cost index funds.  Good luck.  The S&P 500 has just now reached  the highs of 2000 when adjusted for inflation. You have earned zip, … Read more

Fed officials kept the central bank’s $85 billion-per-month bond-buying program in place, saying they wanted to see more evidence the economy can sustain improvement before scaling back.  The bull roars!  S&P rises 20.76 points and the Dow lifts 147.  Priceline breaks $1000 and surpasses Federal Express market cap. The last week we have been adding to MLPs like Kinder and El Paso, REITS, Utilities, and high yield bond funds.  That was very opportune for us.  We bought these beaten down groups because that’s about the only  thing insiders have been buying.   I think we are well positioned for the … Read more

The Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Indexes Performance data for Aug 2013 has been updated. Please visit our site athttp://www.hedgeindex.com for further details.   Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index Performance Index / Sub Strategies Value** Aug 13 YTD 1 Year Annl* Std Dev* Sharpe* Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index 504.30 -0.54% 4.03% 7.16% 8.58% 7.37% 0.77     Convertible Arbitrage 412.71 0.72% 4.47% 6.83% 7.47% 6.73% 0.68     Dedicated Short Bias 35.32 0.03% -17.36% -23.22% -5.15% 16.68% -0.48     Emerging Markets 405.34 -0.24% 2.87% 9.21% 7.38% 14.47% 0.31     Equity Market Neutral 252.48 -1.72% 3.00% 4.43% 4.82% 10.04% 0.19     Event Driven 585.72 … Read more

Barron’s publishes two  major articles this week.  The cover story is that the big money aided by their financial advisors,are getting back in risky assets with a vengeance.  See Seeking Higher Returns By KAREN HUBE via Seeking Higher Returns – Barrons.com. The next article by regular columnist Up and Down Wall Street’s Randall Forsyth states that when magazine covers herald a bull market it’s a reliable indicator that it’s over and the opposite is about to happen.  Beware the Bull . Who are you supposed to believe?  The financial advisors that missed the enormous run from the bottom that has doubled … Read more

One of our best clients forwarded this to me. I thought this was interesting since Apache is is our largest holding at Sax Angle Partners, LP..  Although we lightened up it on Friday, it still remains our largest holding.  I don’t believe the market will correct significantly either.  I’m glad Barron’s publishes a track record.  That’s the first thing I look at. I’m not in the habit of taking advice from someone who is doing worse than me and our track record is more than twice better.  Nonetheless, it’s nice to hear successful market participants agreeing with you.  None the … Read more

One of the things we talk about in the Investment Survival Workshop is developing the mindset to think ahead. The point being is that when you have a regular exercise routine, you have goals in mind.  When you are planning an investment strategy, it’s no different.  What’s your time period?  Are you a long-term investor or someone who is just trading week to week or even a day trader?  As part of a routine, find time to anticipate what’s going to happen for some period in the future.Everyone’s time frame will be different.   With that in mind, here are a few … Read more