The Insider Report

We track insiders very carefully.  Of the 544 purchases in the last year where insiders bought $100,000 or more of their company’s stock, 405 of the 544 purchases, or 74.4% of these buys are underwater.  That’s a bear market when the most informed of purchasers can’t make any money.

Investors fear MLPs will cut their hefty distributions, but many companies can avoid that fate. Source: MLPs Can Fund Payouts Even as Oil Prices Slide

Insider buying versus selling has reached highest point since 2011, one again predicting with perfect accuracy a short term rally.

Maybe this is why their stock in in the tank too.  The markets are mostly about people with confidence taking money from those that lack it. Bloomberg Business delivers business and markets news, data, analysis, and video to the world, featuring stories from Businessweek and Bloomberg News. Source: Goldman Sachs Abandons Five of Six ‘Top Trade’ Calls for 2016 – Bloomberg Business

Executives across corporate America are being asked for their views on whether a recession is in the offing. Source: Here’s What Executives Say About the Possibility of a U.S. Recession – Bloomberg Business

The annual cost of credit-default swaps on $100 million bonds of blue-chip telecommunications company AT&T has risen by one third to about $1.1 million since December, according to data from Markit. The company faces declining demand for its landline services even as the cellular telephone business grows increasingly competitive. Source: Hedge Funds Bet on Risks in U.S. Blue-Chip Debt – WSJ

I guess Mr. Bloomberg is running for President as an independent.  When you announce publicly like he has that his “people are exploring a presidency run” that it means he has already decided to run and this is a trial balloon.  Now with this opinion piece (almost paid opinion piece) in the Wall Street Journal, I think the cards are thrown on the table. Hooray. Douglas E. Schoen writes that Michael Bloomberg can win the White House: Record numbers of voters are independents—who won’t be satisfied with Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump or Ted Cruz. Source: Why Mike Bloomberg Can Win … Read more

I’d like to believe this but I don’t.  There could be big gyrations in stocks although it might not impact the overall indices. Not much will change, even if the wackiest candidate gets elected. Source: To financial markets, the 2016 election will barely matter

If you haven’t heard of this, you have been living in a shell.  Shkreli is America’s newest bad boy AND he is interesting and handsome and extremely bizarre.  Martin Shkreli’s lawyer Benjamin Brafman said that a tweet his client posted after a congressional hearing Thursday calling legislators “imbeciles” was “unfortunate.” Source: Congress Tweet ‘Unfortunate,’ Lawyer Says as Shkreli Goes Online

I don’t believe oil goes much lower although anything is possible.  Oil stocks seem like they are stabilizing or diverging even a bit from the price of crude. That’s probably the best indicator of mass market psychology and I think it does play a role in the pricing of the commodity  because there are so many speculators in the market. A feedback loop of the U.S. dollar, crude, capital flows, and emerging markets. Source: Citi: ‘We Should All Fear Oilmageddon’

This would make perfect since if the tax was levied at foreign imports. Instead its designed to hurt a domestic industry already on the ropes. HS President Barack Obama is proposing a $10-a-barrel tax on oil to pay for clean transportation projects, the White House said Thursday. Source: Obama proposing $10-a-barrel oil tax to pay for clean transportation – MarketWatch

THE HEADLINE SHOULD READ FACEBOOK MADE JUST $10.2 MILLION IN REVENUE. WHEN YOU CAN DO NO WRONG, THE MARKET IS TELLING YOU TO SELL. When Facebook Inc.’s Mark Zuckerberg agreed to pay a staggering $19 billion for WhatsApp Inc. in February 2014, his justification was simple: The messaging service was expected to reach 1 billion users and become essential for a sizable slice of the world population. Source: WhatsApp Hits 1 Billion Users, Fulfilling Zuckerberg’s Promise

Maybe the best thing you can say about the worst January for stocks in seven years is that an excess of optimism won’t be a problem for equities in 2016.Even with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s rebound in the final two weeks, it wasn’t enough to reverse a selloff that at its lowest point erased $2.5 trillion from American shares. It could’ve been worse. After tumbling to a 21-month low, the benchmark ended the month with its biggest one-day rally since September to trim the monthly loss to 5.1 percent. Source: Trauma Lingers as Stocks’ Worst January Since 2009 Incites … Read more

Big U.S. banks are in better shape than they have been in years, and yet they trade at levels last seen in 2011. Why Citi, JPMorgan, BofA, and Wells Fargo could move up 20% or more this year. I hope our large underwater position in Citi (its the largest holding in the Fund) gets a bounce from this article.  In a declining rate environment due to a weakening economy, it’s hard to get excited about banks other than assets at depressed prices. At least Citi gets marks for stealing away the coveted Costco account from American Express when it becomes the … Read more

This is the most cogent thing I’ve read yet on the Trump phenomena In presidential elections, opposites attract. Source: The Obama Theory of Trump

Records are made to be broken. I wouldn’t read anything at all into this other than the week sucked for most investors. It’s official: this was the worst opening week ever for U.S. stocks. Source: Stock Market Puts in Its Worst Opening Week Ever – MoneyBeat – WSJ

The first foreign oil tanker filled with American crude pulled out of port on New Year’s Eve. Here’s what you need to know about its journey. Source: 5 Things to Know About the First Freely Traded U.S. Oil Cargo in 40 Years                                                – WSJ

Obviously very bad for investor confidence.  They might do better letting Macau casino operator, Steve Wynn run the exchanges as well as the casinos. China’s stock market held its shortest trading session in history as tumbling stocks triggered the circuit-breaker system twice. Source: Investors Scramble for Answers After China’s Stock Halt

Apple has become the Rodney Dangerfield of the stock market. It can get no respect even boasting profits  and revenue growth any company including the FANGS would love to have. Attempting to steal a bit of thunder away from this week’s Consumer Electronics Show in Vegas, Apple announced this morning a record-breaking holiday season for its App Store, with over $1.1… Source: Apple’s Record-Breaking Holiday Season Saw Over $1.1 Billion In App Store Sales | TechCrunch