The Insider Report

What appears about to happen seems inevitable and predictable. If Hillary Clinton is elected, the email scandal, the pay-for-play scandal involving the Clinton Foundation, “Bill Clinton, Inc.,” the truthfulness of her testimony, and reports of Clinton-paid dirty tricksters engaging in brownshirt tactics at Trump rallies, are all going to be investigated more thoroughly by the FBI. And if Clinton is president, there is no way her Justice Department can investigate the Clinton scandals, any more than this city in the early 1970s would entrust an investigation into Watergate to the Nixon Justice Department. If Clinton wins this election, and Republicans … Read more

“I don’t normally engage in politics, but I decided to sign this one because I think that the destruction that Trump’s campaign tactics have done to the institutions of this nation is a great moral issue,” said Robert Shiller, the Yale University economist. “It isn’t Republican versus Democrat. It isn’t a normal political statement. It is a feeling of outrage against a demagogue.” Source: Prominent Economists, Including Eight Nobel Laureates: ‘Do Not Vote for Donald Trump’ – Real Time Economics – WSJ

What a class act George Bush, Sr. was. I voted for him but I grew to respect Clinton greatly and I’m excited to have him back in the White House, if only as 1st Man. The market averaged 20% per annum plus returns during Clinton Presidency with not only a balanced budget but a surplus. Source: 1993 Letter from George H.W. Bush to Bill Clinton Resurfaces, Goes Viral | National News | US News

This would have to go down as ununsual twist of Karma if Fox News got a strong competitor out of their  embrace of Trump’s candiacy. Source: Trump son-in-law makes approach on post-election TV start-up

Endurance Specialty Holding, ENH rocketed up 36.48% today when the Dow Jones News Servicer reported that ENH  confirmed that it’s in advanced discussions about a potential strategic transaction with Japan’s Sompo Holdings Inc. The Nikkei report said the deal would be worth about $6.5 billion. Bermuda-based Endurance “there can be no assurance that the discussions will lead to a definitive agreement” and said it doesn’t plan to comment further at this time. What they didn’t say was that Chairman John Charman bought $19.8 million of the moribund stock  at the end of May, exercised an additional 160,000 shares at an average strike … Read more

Wow- the Fed is backstopping the market? The Federal Reserve could get benefits from buying assets other than long-term U.S. debt if in a future downturn, Chair Janet Yellen said. Source: Yellen says Fed purchases of stocks, corporate bonds could help in a downturn

Certainly in the short run and probably in the long run, the Presidential race will have a major impact on the stock market. So I am paying a lot of attention to polling.  After you read this scathing editorial from USA Today, take their quick poll.  Its one of the larger online samples I have seen.  I think you will be shocked at the results. The Editorial Board has never taken sides in the presidential race. We’re doing it now. Source: USA TODAYs Editorial Board: Trump is unfit for the presidency

We have a position in US Concrete. USCR primarily because of    Divisional officer Poulsen’s purchase of 18,000 shares in August at $56 per share.  The stock closed Friday at $48.35.  Needless to say we are underwater in this position as well.  It’s hard to evaluate the fundamentals of this company and its not acting well considering both candidates are talking up massive infrastructure spending. Its also hard to see what attracted Poulsen to buy stock at this particular time as valuation doesn’t seem compelling either.  It’s usually the stuff that you can’t see though that makes you money in the … Read more

I have done some informal anecdotal polling of the Presidential Election.  There is currently an oil and gas conference, or more like get a together at Park City Hotel.  I’ve met two woman from Texas, both professional urban types, one from Dallas Fort Worth and the other from Houston.  Both are Hillary fans.  I would have lost money betting on who they would have said they were voting for.  I suspect their husbands are card carrying Republicans. They say white urban educated women will decide this election.  If this is any indication, the game is over.  Clinton trounces Trump regardless … Read more

The market is terrified of a Trump Presidency.  Its not that some of his economic proposals are bad, they are not.  It’s the threat of a global recession inspired by his tough trade stance that unnerves financial markets.  I also think its naive to think the Chinese will back down much under pressure.  They are a very proud people who can endure more suffering and loss of life than Americans would tolerate. Don’t get in a shoving match with a crowd.  1 out of 6 people on the planet are Chinese.   Shares stumble as polls indicate that presidential race … Read more

$NTDOY Nitendo is still one awesome short selling opportunity.  Its meteoric rise in price is over, the $16 billion in frivolous market cap gained by the fad sensation Pokemon go is still in the stock price but the numbers are in free fall According to new numbers from Axiom Capital Management, Pokemon Go engagement is in steady decline after peaking around the middle of July. Source: It’s happening: Pokemon Go popularity is in decline

The S&P 500 has been remarkably tranquil. The danger is not so much complacency about markets but complacency about central banks. — Streetwise Source: It’s Getting Scarily Quiet in the Stock Market – WSJ

12,000 people per day turning 65 for the next 45 years, making it the biggest market opportunity in our  lifetime.  Our key investment in this area is Care Cap Properties, a well run diversified skilled nursing facility REIT spun out of Ventas last year.  CCP pays about 7.5% annual dividend with strong financials and about a 70%  dividend payout ratio.  Based on CNL’s analysis, the skilled nursing facility business should have lots of runway.  One caveat though, is this business is almost entirely dependent on Medicare and Medicaid so changes in the political climate and to a less degree interest rates will … Read more