The Insider Report

Follow the Money » The Dollar Trumps Carrier

by

Trump saved 1K jobs in Indiana and already DESTROYED 370K jobs given the Trump-led dollar appreciation blogs.cfr.org/setser/2016/11… An interesting calculatoin from an interesting person, Nouriel Roubini.  But it doesn’t account for the leap in animal spirits by a rising stock market.  That may just trump all and yes, of course, pun intended. Source: Follow the Money » The Dollar Trumps Carrier

One really important group is not buying during the Trump rally: Corporate insiders

by

There is one major, well-informed group of individuals out there who are not buying the rally in stocks after the election: corporate executives.In fact, not only are insiders not buying, they are selling big time in the wake of the election, according to Vickers Weekly Insider, which tracks insider buying and selling to make investment decisions.”Overall insider sentiment remains bearish — and very uniformly so, as all of the major sell-buy readings from Vickers are logging the exact same numerical results this week,” the publication said Tuesday. Source: One really important group is not buying during the Trump rally: Corporate … Read more

Americans, Not Mexicans, Should Worry About Trump, Slim Says – Bloomberg

by

Billionaire Carlos Slim, Mexico’s richest person, said Americans have more to worry about under Donald Trump than Mexicans because the president-elect could cost the U.S. its place as the world’s leader.“I would be more worried if I were an American,” Slim said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “If you are going to close the economy, it is bad. He has the risk to lose the international leadership of the United States.“You are the leaders in technology, but there are other countries moving there — China, Israel — and everyone wants to improve,” Slim said. “I think that is a … Read more

Jobs report Trump recession—commentary

by

Here’s the bottom line. The economic cycle is aged, but that doesn’t mean it has to end anytime soon. That said, the fiscal policies of our new president will be met with many tradeoffs. One will be the potential positive of rising wages at the cost of lower corporate profit margins. Another will be a rising interest rate environment in the context of an economic and market construct that has been built on lower and lower rates over the past seven years. The behavior of an economy under a president is often policy driven for sure but many times it’s … Read more

Yellow Lights are Flashing for Business Owners

by

DNY59 Getty Images/VettaLoan delinquencies are up and credit is tightening.Small businesses are frequently called canaries in the coal mine, forecasting by months or even years things to come in the larger economy.Now, despite a strong November jobs report and a roaring stock market, there are troubling signs for business owners. Flashing yellow lights can be seen in two reports out this week that suggest small-business borrowing is experiencing trouble for the first time in four years.Loan demand from small businesses has dropped and delinquencies for existing loans have risen to a level not seen since 2012, according to the latest … Read more

Is the market breaking out or is this is a blow-off rally before the sell off?

by

The market feels like its chasing performance to me.  When I look at the longer term chart, I think we are heading into dangerous territory.  We have had an incredible run since the depths of 2008.  Bull markets don’t last forever. Usually there is something that precipitates a bear market.  No one of course knows what it is but the Trump presidency does provide some catalysts. Rising rates, protectionist policy, inexperience are just a few of the possibilities. When I look at the monthly chart of the S&P 500, I note a disturbing divergence for the “new” bull case.  The … Read more

Why the stock market is going up

by

1. Stocks just got a boost from President Elect Trump’s wish to lower  taxes, especially maintaining low capital gains and dividend tax rates. 2.Bond stampede as investors flee Treasuries that are plummeting in value as market realizes Trump’s ideas are going to blow the deficit sky high, perhaps ignite inflation, and eviscerate bonds as interest rates rise causing a stampede out of bonds into stocks. 3.Prospects of trade war with China could cause a rout in U.S. Treasuries as 2nd largest owner of our debt could threaten to dump them into Euros and a basket of other currencies including their own further … Read more

Why the market is going up and dragging rates skyward with it.

by

Massive spending build out in infrastructure, military and the border fence combined with tax cuts is going to blow about apart any semblance of a balanced budget.  It will obviously add growth if they can keep interest rates controlled..  Interest rates especially in a Trumpian world will get blown to smithereens from a combination of borrowed money to fund his pet project while lowering taxes on everyone at the same time.  This is a recipe for complete debasement of the currency.  Since no one has spent too much time worrying about how we might pay for all this without raising a … Read more

$AAP Advanced Auto Parts buy before earnings Monday after the close

by

AAP Advanced Auto Parts has been a dismal performer of late in spite of the massive insider buying as presented below courtesy of the  Washington Service. Not sure what justifies the 11.79% relative underperformance of the name but we should find out Monday after the close when they report 3rd quarter earnings. Our own DCF analysis shows a deeply undervalued stock that should be priced closer to $200 than the its $145 Friday close.  Everything since the election has been all about macro plays, not so much earnings.  When you step back and analyze Trump’s main issue about auto manufacturing … Read more

China warns Trump against abandoning climate change deal

by

Who whould have ever thought this? China has warned Donald Trump that he will be defying the wishes of the entire planet if he acts on his vow to back away from the Paris climate agreement after he becomes US president next January. In a sign of how far the world has shifted in recognising the need to tackle global warming, Beijing — once seen as an obstructive force in UN climate talks — is now leading the push for progress by responding to fears that Mr Trump would pull the US out of the landmark accord. Source: China warns … Read more

Fund results and thoughts on the election

by

I have said many times that I am not a macro driven investor. I have no edge over the many well connected fund managers that have Federal Reserve governors and banks of analysts and economists they can consult. Instead I focus on insider behavior trying to read the tea leaves to gain some advantage. Tuesday night proved that banks of analysts and high ranking Fed members provided no edge either as almost no one could have predicted the election outcome much less the extraordinary behavior of the stock market. The Fund did well enough the day after the election, up … Read more