The Insider Report

As the ideological shift in Washington threatens to undermine U.S. influence in a region it transformed, Beijing sees Donald Trump as a godsend. Source: China Gloats as Trump Squanders U.S. Soft Power – WSJ

Retail investors have fled high grade European bonds at their fastest weekly rate in seven years according to analysis from JPMorgan, highlighting escalating fears over a packed roster of major elections in the coming months.Over €1bn was pulled from investment grade euro corporate funds last week, according to the US investment bank, which is warning of the “non trivial risk of hitting an electoral landmine” in the continent this year. Source: Political jitters send retail investors fleeing from European corporate bonds   We have been saying for a few weeks now the biggest risk we see is the unraveling of … Read more

As a result, many senior citizens will either have to work longer, move to less expensive places or pare back their spending—choices that economists say are likely to put a drag on the U.S. economy. Source: With $15 Left in the Bank, a Baby Boomer Makes Peace With Less – WSJ

WASHINGTON — President Trump, smarting from a series of crises, moved his surrogates aside on Thursday and assigned the rescue of his month-old presidency to the only spokesman he’s ever really trusted — himself. For days, a frustrated and simmering president fumed inside the West Wing residence about what aides said he saw as his staff’s inadequate defense and the ineffectiveness of his own tweets. Over the objections of some top advisers who wanted to steer him away from confrontation, Mr. Trump demanded to face the media, determined to reject the narrative that his administration is sinking into chaos, scandal … Read more

President Trump announced a new nominee for labor secretary and answered questions from reporters at the White House on Thursday. Source: Full Transcript and Video: Trump News Conference – The New York Times   I had two watch this one twice. It will go down in history as one of the best ever American President press conferences I have seen.

May. Source: Investors still aren’t taking ‘Frexit’ seriously enough – MarketWatch

There are tens of thousands of Chinese obtaining foreign citizenship every year,” said Denny Ko, an immigration lawyer in Hong Kong who advises rich Chinese clients, adding that Mr Xi’s crackdown has spurred an increase in applications over the past four ye Source: Foreign passports offer little protection for China’s elite

“I would like you to uphold the ‘One China’ policy,” Mr. Xi said to Mr. Trump in a scripted exchange.“At your request, I will do that,” Mr. Trump had just come from dinner with Republican donor Sheldon Adelson, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Nicki Haley, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. Source: U.S., China Coordinated Policy Reversal – WSJ Sax Angle take: Sheldon Adelson, CEO and majority shareholder of Las Vegas Sands was Trump’s single largest donor to his Presidential campaign. Las Vegas Sands (LVS) has extensive casino holdings in Macau.  Does this sound like “drain the swamp”? … Read more

President Donald Trump on Friday plans to sign an executive action to scale back the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial-overhaul law, in a sweeping plan to dismantle much of the regulatory system put in place after the financial crisis. Source: Donald Trump Plans to Undo Dodd-Frank Law, Fiduciary Rule – WSJ Will somebody be kind enough to explain why the fiduciary rule is a bad thing?  According to the WJS “Mr. Trump will use a memorandum to ask the labor secretary to consider rescinding a rule set to go into effect in April that orders retirement advisers, overseeing about $3 trillion in … Read more

LONDON — The European Union is accustomed to crises. But it is probably safe to say that none of the 28 leaders who are gathering in Malta on Friday expected the crisis that has unexpectedly overtaken the agenda: the United States of America. Source: For Europe, There’s a New Threat in Town: The U.S. – The New York Times   I personally don’t think Trump is a threat to the U.S. stock market.  He may even be a good thing if the country doesn’t break out into civil war.  But I think Europe and the euro represent a real risk.

Source: Donald Trump said Amazon and Jeff Bezos have a ‘huge antitrust problem.’ Now they may. – Recode

By itself, the 230-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.14% this week wasn’t earth shattering: 1% gains and losses happen all the time. But the clattering sound accompanying it wasn’t hard to diagnose: It was the sound of scales falling off of Wall Street’s eyes. The market this week is dealing with the realization that President Donald Trump means all the things he says. He really is a protectionist,really does think America needs to be protected from the world both economically and physically. He really does make policy without much care or thought to get details right, … Read more

President Donald Trump’s policies have brought gold back to life. Source: Gold Gains as Trump Shocks Markets by Doing What He Said He’d Do – Bloomberg

  The Fund was up 3.47% for the month of January versus the S&P 500 up 1.77%. As a reminder these are preliminary results and Fund Associates provides the official results. As usual we are highly liquid and can change our exposure rapidly.  At the moment we have large positions in Triumph Group and Occidental Petroleum. I’ll update the position page on Friday. Top winners for the month were Abbott Laboratories, Wynn Resorts, Medtronic, Paycom, Invalon Hldgs, Instructure Inc, and Triumph Group.  Top losers were shorting SVXY calls, Occidental Petroleum, Astronics, Netflix, and GLD.  GLD was particularly disappointing as we were … Read more

Britain could defend free-trade far more effectively with the EU’s bulk behind it — and could also start to explore the possibilities for more EU defence co-operation. As it is, Britain has been thrown into the arms of an American president that the UK’s foreign secretary has called a madman.In the declining years of the British empire, some of its politicians flattered themselves that they could be “Greeks to their Romans” — providing wise and experienced counsel to the new American imperium.But the Emperor Nero has now taken power in Washington — and the British are having to smile and … Read more

Inflation has a habit of creeping up on you. Just ask historians. From rates below zero less than a year ago, inflation across the developed world has risen in recent months toward central bank targets, largely driven by a rising oil price. And if history is any guide, bond markets had better beware. Source: Bond markets set for a taste of the 60s as inflation picks up | Reuters

Does President Donald Trump want to destroy the EU? We cannot answer this question definitely, but the signals he has sent out suggest the bloc should take the potential threat more seriously than it is. Source: How Europe can avoid falling into Trump’s trap

After Brexit rattled the European Union in 2016, a string of high-stakes elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands – along with possibly Italy – could bring even greater uncertainty to the bloc in the year to come. Source: France, Germany and the Netherlands: The elections that could derail the EU in 2017 – France 24

Morgan Stanley foresees a smaller rise in the dollar in the event of a 20 percent border-adjustment tax, rather than a one-time 25 percent appreciation of the dollar, as implied by textbook theory. “We think a 10-15 percent rise in USD is reasonable,” Castagno and his team wrote. “Even if we don’t get a full exchange rate offset, the policy will still have a large impact on U.S. competitiveness and, therefore, the dollar.” Source: Trump’s Border Tax Threat May Weaponize the Dollar – Bloomberg

Why Trumps “Border Tax Proposal” Is The “Most Important Thing Nobody Is Talking About”by Tyler DurdenDec 20, 2016 10:21 PM263SHARESTwitterFacebookRedditWhile the market, and various pundits and economists have been mostly focused on the still to be disclosed details of Trumps infrastructure spending aspects of his fiscal plan, “one of the least talked about but possibly most important tax shifts in the history of the United States” is, according to DB, House Speaker Paul Ryan’s and President-elect Trump’s “border tax adjustment” proposal.This is part of the “Better Way” reform package and also figures prominently in the writings of senior Trump administration … Read more

This is the closest to midnight that the clock has been since 1953, when it was moved to two minutes to midnight after United States and the Soviet Union tested their first thermonuclear weapons within six months of one another. Source: Thanks to Trump, the Doomsday Clock Advances Toward Midnight – The New York Times Interesting observation, so many parallels to a bye gone era returning. I believe Trump will have much better relations with the Russians this go round. Unfortunately  history has a way of rhyming, not repeating. Back then there were only two nuclear powered countries, now there are … Read more

I believe the Women’s March in DC and around the world marks the first volley of the resistance. We are entering an era of discontent. At least the mood has not turned sour. Please watch this incredible film by my son shot on location at Washington DC, site of the Woman’s March on the day after the inauguration. FORWARD | Women's March on Washington from Cole Sax on Vimeo.

Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto canceled a planned meeting with President Donald Trump next week after the U.S. president increased pressure on Mexico to pay for a wall he wants built on the border. “If Mexico is unwilling to pay for the badly needed wall, then it would be better to cancel the upcoming meeting,” Mr. Trump wrote on his personal Twitter feed on Thursday morning. Source: Mexican President Cancels Trump Meeting as Sparks Fly Over Wall, Trade – WSJ This should be interesting, watch the comedy A Day without a Mexican.  It might be more than just comic, it could … Read more

Carl Icahn declares end to ‘socialism’ in U.S by Paul R. La Monica   @lamonicabuzz January 23, 2017: 11:09 AM ET Your video will play in 00:17 Legendary investor Carl Icahn, a vocal supporter of President Trump, tweeted Monday morning that Trump’s inauguration speech was “brilliant” and left “no doubt our dangerous slide towards socialism is over.” Source: Carl Icahn declares end to ‘socialism’ in U.S. – Jan. 23, 2017 This may be true for now but depending on how his radical attempt at transformation of the US economy.  If it goes awry, the next President may be a a … Read more

The Republicans and Trump seem to be gathering momentum to pass broad sweeping economic change. Here’s the unintended consequences 1.Border adjustment tax- something will have to placate the budget hawks for Trump to spend a $1 trillion on infrastructure.  As I understand it now the border adjustment would levy a huge tax on imports.  Since almost everything we buy at Walmart is made overseas, mostly in China, this will drive up the costs of many,many items.  70% of the economy is consumption. 2. Supposedly this will drive up the value of the dollar but I frankly don’t see why but … Read more