Insomniac Hedge Fund Guy

When Bill Clinton released oil from strategic reserves in 2000,oil was a whopping $40 a barrel

by

The last time the US decided to embark on a major program to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve was in 2000, when President Bill Clinton, concerned about the price of oil going into the winter, opened up the spigots.  The headlines from September 22, 2000 read “On the surface, the move looks defensible. Oil prices had soared to nearly $40 a barrel, up from $10 two years ago. America’s heating-oil stocks are indeed at perilously low levels. The first reactions overseas were favourable. European governments, just recovering from tumultuous protests over petrol prices, voiced their support. Even some … Read more

‘t kill you, makes you stronger?

by

The largest one day drop in points in the Dow was in 2008 when the first TARP vote was rejected by an unruly House of Representatives.  The Dow plunged 800 points in minutes. Now we have two votes, one for our debt ceiling, and the other for the Greece bailout and the European Union.  According to the Washington Post “Boehner and other GOP leaders say they are committed to raising the debt limit, now set at $14.3 trillion, to avoid default, an outcome they acknowledge could prove economically disastrous. Default could also prove politically disastrous: A new Washington Post-Pew Research Center … Read more

Are you watching the VIX?

by

Are you watching the VIX?US Major Market Sentiment + The Bulls vs. Bears Are you watching the VIX? Last week as the market sold off ahead of Quad Witching options expiration we saw a jump in volatility, as the VIX along with the market broke the range. The VIX has rallied to the mid-February high, and to the Gap Up mark in March. IMO as the VIX comes down the market may decide to rally. 1. VIX: 21.85; -0.88 2. VXN: 23.58; -0.89 3. VXO: 21.44; -0.53 4. Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.19; +0.07. (12 sessions running above 1.0, Negative sentiment … Read more

Weekend Reading

by

WSJ With Its Stock Price Buffeted, Berkshire May Be a Bargain Warren Buffett likes cheap stocks. Right now, he doesn’t need to look far to find one. His company, Berkshire Hathaway, has slid in the last three months, making it one of the more striking values in the stock market. Indeed, some think the Oracle’s stock hasn’t been this cheap since the height of the Internet stock boom—and investors who got in then have tripled their money, even after the recent decline.   Bloomberg Obama, Boehner Put Aside Budget to Tee Up President Barack Obama lines up his putt as … Read more

Insiders are Buying Overseas Shipholding Group Inc. NYSE:OSG

by

Insiders are Buying Overseas Shipholding Group Inc. NYSE:OSG   Overseas Shipholding Group Inc. NYSE:OSG has seen a flurry of insider buying with 5 insiders making significant purchases since June 3. CEO Morten Arntzen bought about $105,000 worth of shares on June 15 after previously buying about $84,000 on June 8. Overseas Shipholding Group, Inc. (OSG) is a bulk shipping company engaged in the ocean transportation of crude oil and petroleum products. During the year ended December 31, 2009, the Company owned or operated a fleet of 106 vessels (aggregating 10.9 million deadweight tons and 864,800 cubic meters), of which 84 … Read more

Beware Contagion From Greeks Baring Rifts?

by

Thursday, June 16, 2011 Beware Contagion From Greeks Baring Rifts? Richard Barley of the WSJ reports, Beware Contagion From Greeks Baring Rifts: Euro-zone politicians may be fiddling while Athens burns. Tuesday’s meeting of finance ministers brought no progress on how to address Greece’s funding problems and avoid setting off a financial crisis. But conditions in European markets are deteriorating. The main risk from Greece has always been contagion, and that process is already under way. Most directly, prices of Portuguese and Irish bonds have fallen sharply, with 10-year yields rising above 11% and the cost of insuring their debt at … Read more

Coles and Hawkins, MIDAS Technical Analysis

by

Coles and Hawkins, MIDAS Technical Analysis Anyone who trades using technical analysis would do well to read MIDAS Technical Analysis: A VWAP Approach to Trading and Investing in Today’s Markets (Bloomberg/Wiley, 2011) by Andrew Coles and David G. Hawkins. It’s not that the MIDAS method, pioneered by Paul Levine in 1995, is the holy grail. I recommend the book because the authors have done such a thorough job of explaining and, after extensive research, expanding on the notion of volume-weighted support and resistance curves. In the process they touch on a wide range of technical approaches to the market, some … Read more

Oh Mama can this really be the end?

by

Western civilization pretty much started with Greece. Can it be poetic justice that it could end there as  well?  The West as we refer to the United States and European countries has been on a decade long descent versus the East.  While our standard of living has fallen, theirs by all  measures has risen.    Our debt hobbled leveraged hedonistic society appears to be crumbling versus the  crawl out of the mud emerging markets.   There is a great transfer of wealth and the most important asset mankind has, hope itself.  While the West is sinking into that collective quiet state of desperation,  … Read more

”t afford.

by

The headlines read that EU officials are scrambling over the weekend to avoid triggering a Greek default which could set in motion a daisy chain like detonation of those familiar weapons of mass destruction, credit default swaps.  The very same WMD that nearly took down the global financial system in 2008.    They’re back!!.  And just when you thought it was safe to go in the water.  Apparently there are astonishingly large bets between all kinds of counter-parties regarding sovereign European debt that threaten to take down the entire global financial system all over again.  Or at least a lot of … Read more

Insiders are Buying Valeant Pharmaceuticals NYSE:VRX

by

Insiders are Buying Valeant Pharmaceuticals NYSE:VRX   Valeant Pharmaceuticals NYSE:VRX acting CFO and board member Philip Loberg purchased 7,500 shares on June 9 for a total purchase of $396,150. Loberg bought shares ahead of an expected FDA decision on an epileptic seizure drug, Potiga. This drug was approved for limited use on June 13. Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc., formerly Biovail Corporation, is a multinational, specialty pharmaceutical company that develops, manufactures and markets a range of pharmaceutical products. The Company’s specialty pharmaceutical and over-the-counter (OTC) products are marketed under brand names and are sold in the United States, Canada, Australia and … Read more

‘t make money in the market if you are too afraid of losing it.

by

Consumer confidence is on the decline, employment growth has turned down, the Government is broke, the Dollar is going down the tubes, and government is broken.  And that’s the good news.  Greece is defaulting on its debt, Ireland wants to be next, and the grandaddy of all encumbered beggars, the US seems helpless to mend its ways.  Japan is on the verge of sliding into the sea, the Mideast is one protest away from exploding into oil burning conflagration.  The unmitigated glee of doomsayers and alarmists is beginning to annoy me.  It’s amazing how people can hold themselves out as prognosticators of doom on … Read more

Hooker Furniture- are you kidding me?

by

Below  book, no debt, 4.2% dividend, positive cash flow, insider buying, uh? Hooker Furniture offers uncommon value.  At $9.75, yesterday’s close, the Company trades well below tangible book value, has no debt,  positive cash flow after paying a 4% dividend to shareholders.  Hooker Furniture has $3.24 in cash  on a fully diluted basis when you add the cash surrender value of its company owned life insurance policies to the cash on the balance sheet.Yes it’s in the housing business and everything there is suffering under the same malaise and declining consumer confidence.  Costs are going up as well on imported … Read more

Another Reason Insiders are So Good to follow: Short-Swing Profit Rule

by

Warren Buffett is fond of saying something like view stock market investing as if you had a ticket punch with only the ability to have ten punches.  You’d think long and hard about what you bought before you put that hole in your ticket.    He also is noted to say that your third and fourth best ideas are not likely to be as good as your first best idea.  When insiders buy stock in their companies they are subject to a very punishing rule known as  the Short-Swing Profit Rule.  What Does It Mean?   The Short Swing Rule is a Securities … Read more

Follow up on Cirrus Logic Conversation with Managment

by

We had an opportunity to speak to management today.  I’m not going to recap our entire conversation due to confidentiality reasons but these are my impressions. The rest of the year is pretty much coming in as expected.  No big upside surprises nor downside disappointments. The real question is about whether Cirrus chips are in the upcoming Apple iPhone 5.   My bet is that’s a secret held close to the belt and NO imminent announcement is coming out. Cirrus is hiring a lot of engineers mostly to meet anticipated product demand, not for quality and control issues. The Company has been buying stock … Read more

Guggenheim ABCS Gives Us A-B-C But No Y

by

Guggenheim ABCS Gives Us A-B-C But No Y June 10, 2011 by Ron Rowland Filed under Commentary, ETF IPOs (New ETFs)   The ABC acronym stands for Australia, Brazil, and Canada.  The Guggenheim ABC High Dividend ETF (ABCS), launched earlier this week (6/8/11), packages the ten highest yielding stocks from each country into a convenient ETF format. The 30 securities consist of U.S. listed ADRs from all three countries and stocks from Australia and Canada listed in their home countries.  The underlying BNY Mellon ABC Index selects the top 10 stocks or ADRs with the highest yield for each country. … Read more

Just Say No

by

Commissions and transaction costs have plummeted in the last 15 years.  The rationale behind staying put and minimizing transaction costs is not as compelling as it used to be.  Unless there is a catalyst to be in a particular equity, a dividend forthcoming, news headline, general bull market, etc, it doesn’t hurt the average investor to stay on the sidelines if they are worried or uncertain about a position.  Reduce the size of  your position or trade out of it all together.  Trading or investing is a lot about behavioral psychology.   maintaining your confidence is the single most important thing an investor can do.  It’s also … Read more

‘s the Good News

by

I still believe we are headed for a test of the 200 day moving average at S&P 1253.47.   That may not even hold but the line beckons there like a neon sign.   But I don’t think it will happen next week.  In fact I think we are close to a bounce.  As you may have noticed from our tweet this morning, we were quite active buying stock.  Not all of the ideas worked today but a surprising number did.  Two reasons I believe we may be a near a short-term bottom is that the 7 day RSI is not confirming the downward magnitude of Friday’s decline.  Also there are … Read more

Tug of War between Fear and Greed

by

Being unable to sleep at night. Irritability and irrational behavior. These are all unfortunate consequences of overconcentration of risk. A lot of people will tell you that diversification is the key to success in the market. I disagree. Diversification is key to tolerating the pain. And tolerating the pain is key to emotional indifference and that is the KEY to winning market behavior. The market is a constant psychological tug of rope between the group’s collective dynamic relationship between polar opposite emotions- Fear and Greed.  The tension between these two feelings is the daily pulse of the market.  Selling leads to more selling … Read more

Intel may be forming foundry relationship with Apple, says Citigroup

by

According to Briefing.com this morning Apple may be forming a foundry relationship with Intel. Citigroup is the source of this comment and would review such a relationship as positive for Intel. No kidding. We wrote about this in detail on May 30 providing our reasoning behind this guess. Read the full article here . We also went further to tell you to buy Intel below $21.70 in one of our tweets. I’m not as comfortable though about the price levels for Intel as most market charts have deteriorated so much. Still, this news will be very positive should and when … Read more

Bullish Weekly and Daily RSI Divergence

by

I’ve written in the past about how helpful RSI Divergence is.  It’s an osscilator type indicator and is good for finding temporary bottoms and tops in a primary trend.  It is NOT good when the trend has changed and that may be the period we are entering now in the market.   Since I trade on a combination of fundamental and technical measures, I thought it would be critical to review my current holdings.  Only five positions met that description, bullish divergence on both the weekly and daily charts.  They are: SJW SJW Corp Silicon Valley public water utility company yielding … Read more

Is the US Jobs Crisis Here to Stay?

by

Is the US Jobs Crisis Here to Stay?   John Talton of the Seatle Times reports, Why the US is in a jobs crisis:   The situation is nicely encapsulated by economist Nouriel Roubini’s tweet this morning: “US economy now close to stall speed. From anemic recovery to tipping point to stall speed and growth recession. Is a double dip next?” The economy only created 54,000 jobs last month. It takes between 125,000 to 150,000 net new jobs a month just to keep up with the organic numbers of people entering the labor force, much less make up for the … Read more

Are We In The Early Stages Of A Social Media Tech Bubble?

by

Are We In The Early Stages Of A Social Media Tech Bubble? Posted In Blog If you’re new here, you may want to subscribe to our RSS feed or follow us on Twitter and Facebook. Either way, thanks for checking us out! What’s up with all these social media companies filling for IPO’s lately? I guess the spark was lit with LinkedIn which went public just 2 weeks ago now. Since 2 other major social media tech companies have filed the paperwork for additional IPO’s – both Groupon and now Zynga. Coming Social Media Bubble? I hate to say the … Read more

Target is at 1250 on the S&P 500. Little to Stop it Now

by

The S&P 500 200 day moving average is at 1249.09.  That’s also the March low.  There is very little in the way to stop it from reaching this very obvious road sign.  Traders will force the issue.  The question will be can it hold.  There isnt’ any real long-term support at even those levels. We will need stepped up insider buying, M&A, or a rash of stock buy backs and/or dividend increases to offset the perceived lack of government spending.  The end of QE 2 combined with the Republican party’s zeal to curb the budget defecit will decrease any momentum for Government spending.  That’s … Read more

And an Extraordinary Find, Live Trading News

by

I found this great blog over the weekend. This article by Paul Ebeling sticks his neck out and will be easy to judge.  I myself think the market acts very weak here and am raising cash..  This could change quickly but right now my weekly charts are doing nothing to confirm my daily charts.  When in doubt I alwasy raise cash, put on shorts, and reduce the size of my committments.  This has kep me alive through many a bad spot and prepared to fight another day.       This report from Paul Eberling is a fantastic find.  Their blog … Read more

Singapore Leads the Rich List

by

Singapore Leads the Rich List The Fullerton Bay Hotel Singapore LTN reports the Countries with the most Millionaires Y 2010 As financial markets improved last year, Global wealth grew in nearly every region in the World. The fastest, at 17.1%, came in the Asia Pacific region, excluding Japan, followed by North America at 10.2%. “Global wealth is at an all-time high,” says BCG Senior Partner Monish Kumar. According to BCG’s study, Global assets under management grew 8%, to US$121.8T about US$20T above the level during the depths of the Global financial crisis. The number of Millionaire households grew 12.2%, to … Read more

Time to Buy Emerging Markets

by

  Emerging Markets will have a lower open this week but it is time to buy in these economic hot spots. Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia Equities and Currencies are a must own for all investors. Capital inflows to emerging markets will surpass US$1T in Y 2011 Overall net private capital flows to emerging markets (EMs) this year is projected to exceed US$1T , continuing the upward trend fueled by strong fundamentals of the emerging economies, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) said Wednesday. The level follows a 54% rise of net private capital flows to emerging markets to nearly US$990B in … Read more

| Invest With An Edge

by

ETF Stats for May 2011: 1,010 ETFs Fighting For Scraps June 2, 2011 by Ron Rowland Filed under Commentary, ETF Statistics A steady onslaught of new product introductions continued in May along with the first closure of the year. Sponsors rolled out 36 new ETFs and three ETNs while retiring one ETN. The net addition of 38 brings the quantity of listed ETPs to 1,254 consisting of 1,089 ETFs and 165 ETNs. Currently, ETNs account for 13.2% of ETP listings, but only 1.5% of assets and 1.4% of trading activity. The quantity of actively-managed ETFs remained unchanged at just 34. … Read more

Shayne Heffernan Week Ahead, BFR, FTE, PVR

by

Shayne Heffernan Week Ahead, BFR, FTE, PVR   BBVA Banco Frances S.A. (ADR) NYSE:BFR, France Telecom SA (ADR) NYSE:FTE, Penn Virginia Resource Partners L P NYSE:PVR Very little in the way of economic data or corporate earnings next week could leave nervous investors on the edge of their seats. Buying the fall is the answer for traders this week the same model has worked since the Fed started round two of its quantitative easing in August 2010. “We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.” As Warren Buffett has … Read more

Is it an Internet bubble? If So Everyone Wants In

by

I’m starting to get some of the mania.  You have to think of it in different ways.  For example, who would every pay monthly fees to Ancestry.com.  Evidently there are growing numbers of people who can’t complete their curiosity in an evening.  Zynga and online games I sort of understand.  I raised two kids addicted to them.   I can’t wait until they can start paying for them themselves. But then again, time away from Call of Duty is expensive to get. Linkedin, well I personally use that one a lot but I don’t think I’d spend any more money there … Read more