Insomniac Hedge Fund Guy

This is a very encouraging report for oil bulls.  I think once you get the big earnings revisions coming this quarter, the group could be selectively bought. The market might be discounting this event already but its impossible to know for sure. Many major oil companies may not make any money at all for some time, explaining how a basked of 10 investment grade oil and gas companies credit default swaps tripled in the last 3 months. By Jane Xie SINGAPORE, Jan 9 (Reuters) – For the first time since 2009, a contract to buy crude oil or any sort … Read more

Bank Analyst Explains How We Should Think About Wall Street’s Exposure To The Oil Crash Today the financial sector particularly big banks was hit hard. In fact it was the worst performing sector, even worse than oil and gas.  You hear a lot of talk about how crude oil production will continue to climb in the first half of 2015 because so many companies have hedged their exposure to falling prices.  It’s starting to remind me of the black swan events of 2008.  Just who are the counter parties to these loans.  We started calling around to some of the … Read more

I’m more worried about the surging dollar than the crumbling price of oil for U.S. multinationals. The Dow industrials tumbled more than 300 points Monday, kicking off the new year on a sour note as a renewed slide in oil prices sent energy shares sharply lower.The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 331.34 points, or 1.9%, to 17501.65, the biggest one-day loss for the blue chips since early October.The S&P 500 index shed 37.62 points, or 1.8%, to 2020.58, also its worst showing in three months. via U.S. Stocks Tumble Along With Oil Prices – WSJ.

SEC Plans to Fix Flaw in Electronic Distribution System – WSJ.

CBO report says consumers would benefit from repeal of crude oil export ban December 10, 2014 George Baker, executive director of the Producers for American Crude Oil Exports (PACE) coalition, has commented in response to a new report by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which concludes that American consumers would benefit from repeal of the crude oil export ban. “The Congressional Budget Office now joins a long list of independent and government analysts who have concluded that repealing the crude oil export ban will benefit American consumers by lowering gasoline prices,” Baker said. “This conclusion, also drawn by, among others, … Read more

The stock market had its worst week since 2011 finally waking up to the broader implications of the sudden and unprecedented crash of crude oil, a commodity that is essential to the functioning of the modern world. In spite of what some are attributing to a global slowdown, the main reason crude plummeted was a good old fashioned price war.  Wait a minute that was last week’s headline.  Today the news is the Dow had its best two day gain in 3 years.  As of today, the market is almost unchanged for the month. It is a tale. Told by an idiot, full … Read more

Here is a list of all Insider buys in Oil & Gas names over the last month.

I’m composing my own list but I like this well written article from the Economist. Cheaper oil: Winners and losers | The Economist.

By CASEY HOERTH  | NOV 26, 2014 | 10:00 AM EST  | 0 The market definitely sees at least some pain ahead for much of the fracking industry, but will $75 oil stop the shale revolution? Major frac sand producer and master limited partnership Hi-Crush Partners (HCLP) is a name that has shed just over a quarter of its value in just the last couple of months. This is an article from the Street.  We are large owners of HCLP but are re-evaluating the wisdom of this.  Even though HCLP has 85% of 2015 production sold to take or pay oil services companies, there … Read more

Signs of an improving economy did nothing to shield stocks from oil’s freefall as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) had its worst week since 2011, volatility surged and fund managers said anxiety is building among clients and themselves. More than $1.2 trillion was erased from global equities over the five days, as the drop in crude below $58 a barrel raised concern over the strength of the global economy. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, a measure of trader anxiety that has spent most of the year hovering about 25 percent below its historical average, jumped 78 percent … Read more

From JP. Morgan Dec 1,2014 US oil producers unlikely to slash output anytime soon – while US firms may slow new investment, they will prob. continue pumping from existing fields.  The cost of production in existing fields is low and many US producers have hedges in place that will protect profitability.  WSJ   http://goo.gl/sdwjsY US oil drilling starting to slow?  Permits for new wells dropped 15 percent across 12 major shale formations last month according to Reuters.  For the first time there are signs of a retrenchment in US output.  Reuters   http://goo.gl/UQsZHE Asia forecasts big Saudi price cuts – Asian refiners forecasted big price cuts … Read more

I’m not a big fan of Larry Summers more on style points as he comes off as pedantic and long winded but I have to admit he makes a lot of sense here.  There is a big difference in investing between wishing what you would like to see happen and what will probably happen.  In this case the oil and gas infrastructure and broadband are getting built out in spite of all the things in the Obama administration does to derail it as opposed to support it. Why Larry Summers sees danger ahead for the economyShare on Facebook Share on … Read more

Has Oil Bottomed? Continental Resources Thinks So By Ben Levisohn When Continental Resources CLR revealed that it had cashed in its hedges on the price of oil–earning $433 million in the process–it was also making a big bet on the price of oil rising. Wunderlich’s Jason Wangler explains:…the company put its money where its mouth is or more properly took the money and ran by cashing in its oil hedges through 2016. If nothing else, we like the gutsy move as we agree with the oil price thesis that these levels are unsustainable.Now that Continental has monetized its hedges, at … Read more

I think Merrill Lynch is the main cause of the  global economic panic about Ebola.  They published this report 10-3-14 on Ebola front page as part of their big global strategy update.  Note the author of the Ebola piece, Sarbhit Nahal, is not even a healthcare worker, he’s a friggin lawyer. “Be prepared to fight pandemics This week, we discuss a number of topics related to themes from our A Transforming World framework. As Ebola concerns loom, the risk of a pandemic spreading globally is a question of when rather than if, according to strategist Sarbjit Nahal. He suggests the … Read more