Insomniac Hedge Fund Guy

Perhaps the rearview mirror will have shown that this was the biggest financial experiment and bubble of an era. Imagine a bank that pays negative interest. In this upside-down world, borrowers get paid and savers penalized. Crazy as it sounds, several of Europe’s central banks cut key interest rates below zero in 2014, and now Japan has followed. By mid-2016, some 500 million people in a quarter of the world economy were living with rates in the red. Unthinkable before the 2008 financial crisis, the idea is to jolt lending, spur inflation and reinvigorate the economy after other options have … Read more

I don’t know how aggressively I would short bonds, but a short play on ZROZ PIMCO 25 YR Zero Coupon ETF could eventually play out. Some time either rates will rise based on improving economic growth, inflation, and or just a realization that printing money forever by Central Banks might have an unanticipated outcome. Kass puts a high degree of probability on how the bursting of the bond bubble will wipe out years of profits for many. Source: Doug Kass: Im Aggressively Shorting Bonds – TheStreet

It’s tempting to look at the Brexit win and worry that it means we’ve underestimated Donald Trump’s odds of winning the American presidential election. Source: What does Brexit mean for Trump? – Business Insider

In a nutshell, Nomura expects the global impact of the Brexit to be more through the financial, confidence and psychology channels than simply through trade. Their warning is to not underestimate the depth and reach of global financial market contagion, which seems to have increased since 2008. Source: Nomura Warns “Do Not Underestimate The Global Contagion” From Brexit | Zero Hedge

Well written piece.  Not sure where it all goes but it brings up things that need to be said. The dream is over. Source: With a single vote, England just screwed us all

$BZH  Beazer Homes at $7.55 is selling below its tangible book value MRQ of $19.15.  Combined with insider buying and the fundamental back drop of millennials entering the house buying years, there is a lot going for the stock. The negatives are high debt to capital ratios and exposure to the Houston housing market where the downturn in the energy sector could impact demand. Housing starts dipped 0.3% in May to an annual rate of 1.164 million units, the Commerce Department said Friday. Wall Street had expected starts to come in at a 1.15 million annualized rate. Buildi… Source: Housing Starts Fell … Read more

Chanos is a stunningly smart hedge fund manager who is famous for shouting out Enron first.  His specialty is short selling and I really enjoyed this interview on an otherwise extremely boring TV segment with failed CEO Nardelli plugging Trump.  Chants to my surprise is very interested in insider selling. Most stock pros dismiss insider selling as people sell for a lot of reasons but buy for only one.  Chanos refines the approach to looking for groups of insiders selling.  I would add to that look at insiders selling at lows or substantial portions of their holdings.  Its a first … Read more

$FB Does Facebook run the risk of being blocked at work? While this might seem a remote possibility, it is certainly one to be considered when the stock has a P.E. of 50. “Less than 50 percent of their time is spent on value-creating business activities.” Source: Business Is Bad? Blame the Millennials

Poor article but good quote- As the late financial analyst Raymond DeVoe said, “More money has been lost reaching for yield than at the point of a gun.” As the late financial analyst Raymond DeVoe said, “More money has been lost reaching for yield than at the point of a gun.” Source: Energy Funds: When Discounts Don’t Go Deep Enough – MoneyBeat – WSJ

Another reason why volatility will pick up over the summer. A new study showing that a shrinking fraction of shareholders of U.S. corporations pay taxes on dividends is bolstering a drive to revamp the corporate tax system. Source: Fewer Shareholders Pay U.S. Taxes on Dividends

The stock market rout over the Summer and the beginning of the year led to a broad decline in animal spirits of the consumer. It’s starting to be readily apparent in the earnings commentary on 1st quarter conference calls as business seems to have mysteriously improved with the rise in the share price in March.  It seems the market really is the leading indicator of both the economy and the Fed. U.S. corporate profits are set to decline for the third straight quarter, the longest and broadest slide in earnings since the financial crisis, weighed down by the energy slump … Read more

Under Armour trading at 57 forward P.E. is near all time highs which is amazing considering that the market seems to be in a major shift from growth to value.  This doesn’t seem to have gone unnoticed by the insiders who are dumping an unprecedented amount of stock. Two insiders dump 25-45% of their holdings.  

I try to stay out of politics for obvious reasons as some of my clients are Democrats and some are Republicans but all of them appreciate a good return on their investment.  The Presidential contest will likely have great impact on the markets in the short term so paying attention to it does matter.   So check out this Youtube video of the White House Correspondents Dinner in 2011 where Obama publicly humbled Donald Trump and then read this so prescient New Yorker article from late last year. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8TwRmX6zs4 Some day someone may well write a kind of micro-history of … Read more

Insider selling is a very difficult thing to analyze.  After all significant buying only means one thing but insiders could sell for a variety of reasons.  We were short Apple going into earnings in spite of the stock being fundamentally undervalued because insiders were unloading Apple stock in an unprecedented  manner. VP Phil Schiller sold $62.6 million in March and April of this year. CO Jeffrey Williams sold $61.7 million April and $28.3 million in March of this year. CFO Luca Maestri sold $5.3 million in March of this year. CEO Tim Cook sold $18 million in October and November … Read more

United Airlines CEO Oscar Munoz bought a million dollars worth of company shares. Jamie Dimon made a fortune buying JPMorgan stock. Source: When a CEO buys shares, here’s why you should do the same – Yahoo Finance

Initially Intel stock went down understandably on the news that business was slowing and the 2nd quarter revenues numbers would be lower than forecast and the Company would lay off 10% of the workforce. What I don’t understand is why the stock reversed and went up.  Note we were short for earnings.  Maybe the market just got it wrong as evidenced by the Chairman of the Board selling $5.9 million shares reducing his stock ownership by over 30%. Source: EZ-EDGAR(tm) Filing: INTEL CORP F4 Filed on 2016-04-22

“I find it hard to grasp a continued rally without the participation of the second-largest group in the S&P 500,” said Omar Aguilar, chief investment officer for equities at Charles Schwab Investment Management, which oversees about $278 billion. Source: Miserable Year for Banks: Stocks Suffer as Rates Stay Low – WSJ