Insomniac Hedge Fund Guy

The Republicans and Trump seem to be gathering momentum to pass broad sweeping economic change. Here’s the unintended consequences 1.Border adjustment tax- something will have to placate the budget hawks for Trump to spend a $1 trillion on infrastructure.  As I understand it now the border adjustment would levy a huge tax on imports.  Since almost everything we buy at Walmart is made overseas, mostly in China, this will drive up the costs of many,many items.  70% of the economy is consumption. 2. Supposedly this will drive up the value of the dollar but I frankly don’t see why but … Read more

Le Pen promises that if she wins the presidential election, she, too, will call for a referendum on whether France should remain in the E.U., and she hopes a similar alliance of voters will yield the same result. France is a founding member of the E.U. and is far more economically and politically entwined with the bloc than Britain, which was never a fully committed member. While Brexit was a blow to the E.U., France’s departure could signify its end. An eventual French exit, though unlikely, is not unimaginable. French voters rejected a European Constitution in a 2005 referendum, and … Read more

Crowds in hundreds of cities around the world gathered Saturday in conjunction with the Women’s March on Washington. Source: Pictures From Women’s Marches on Every Continent – The New York Times

COMMENTARY euro Why 2017 Could See the Collapse of the Euro Joseph E. Stiglitz Updated: Dec 30, 2016 1:55 PM MST Europe has not been doing well. Just this year, GDP per capita for the Eurozone as a whole finally returned to pre-crisis levels. It is claiming victory in Spain—even though unemployment remains near 20% and youth unemployment is more than twice that—simply because things are better today than they have been since the euro crisis began a half decade ago. Greece remains in a severe depression. Growth for the Eurozone over the past year has been an anemic 1.6%, … Read more

I can’t imagine how this will end well. It took overwhelming intervention by the ECB in 2011 to prevent a market melt down over anxiety of European bank exposure to southern countries, unaffectionately referred to as the PIGS. (Portugal, Italy, Greece,and Spain) Greece and ailing southern European countries.  Forbes referred to this as did many other outlets as a crisis worse than 2008. This might have been just a wake up call with the real act being the French withdrawal from the EU, thereby certainly guaranteeing its collapse. At the latest gathering of the elite at Davos, JP Morgan CEO … Read more

Gold is starting to regain its luster in the new year, reversing a long string of losses following the U.S. presidential election. The precious metal came under pressure after the election of Donald Trump prompted a rally in the dollar, U.S. stocks, and riskier financial assets. The decision by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December further weighed on gold prices, and central-bank officials indicated they may raise rates another three times in 2017. However, analysts say gold looks ready to stage a comeback as political and economic risks gain renewed attention with the presidential transition. Gold prices … Read more

Gundlach: It yields 4.1%. If you combine PPT and BKLN, you’ll have a 5%-plus yield and little interest-rate risk. Your total return for the year could be as high as 7% or 7.5%. Next, like Felix, I would short German Bunds. They are yielding 0.27%, and Germany’s inflation rate is 1.7%. Historically, it is very rare to have a Bund yield below the inflation rate. The current gap is a record. The Bund yield is unsustainably low. Schafer: What is the best way for an individual to short German Bunds? Gundlach: Short the futures. I agree with Felix that the … Read more

I recently attended a two day workshop in San Francisco.  Here are Notes from Cap Intro West Art of Capital Raising David Kim from Apex partners is a sharp West Point Harvard B school graduate that does IR for a $40 billion private equity shop. They tend to have sovereign wealth and institutional funds. Apex says investors expect high returns, plus 20% annualized. He didn’t say whether they got them or not but he did say the investors have a 10 yr. lock up. Joseph Marrent KStone Partners low volatility credit funds, The difference between good guys and great guys … Read more

Source: Rising Interest Rates Are a Boon to Precious Metals

With an Al Gore opener and the inauguration falling its first weekend, this year’s Park City festival will be politically charged. But will execs and audiences buy it? Source: Bracing for a Cheaper, More Political Sundance | Vanity Fair

  The eight, all men, hold as much money as the 3.6 billion people who make up the world’s poorest half, Oxfam said in a report that highlighted inequality.   Source: World’s 8 Richest Have as Much Wealth as Bottom Half of Global Population – The New York Times

The Trump Aesthetic: how his tastes will change America What cultural impact will the incoming president have? Prepare for a mash-up of Sinatra, sports stars and reality TV Source: The Trump Aesthetic: how his tastes will change America

I’m interested in making money in the short term as short term profits add up to long term gains.  Therefore I don’t get political but I do question the legs of this rally.  Few people have as much street cred as the speaker below. Bogle: Trumps long-term policies bad for society, economy and… 1 Hour Ago John Bogle, Vanguard founder, discusses President-elect Trumps effect on the markets and what investors should watch for. Source: Bogle: Trumps long-term policies bad for society, economy and market

Notes from Double Line’s Just Markets 2017. Wow, once again Jeffrey Gundlach shows he is the smartest guy in the room when it comes to market calls. Note that he is the ONLY credible pundit I follow that predicted Trump’s election and he did this in the spring of 2016 I believe. His in depth narrated slide deck presentation covers a lot of ground. This is my takeaway. The soon to be posted interview in its entirety might be found here. https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1125855 Buy India.Good value, demographics, and some structural reform. Gundlach’s in keeping with his contrarian chops is not that … Read more

Trump Rally Starting To Thin Out by Tyler Durden Jan 10, 2017  Despite the recent string of Nasdaq new highs, more stocks have been declining than advancing. One of the hallmarks of the post-election “Trump Rally” in stocks has been the fairly broad participation. With a few exceptions, most sectors and style groups have gone along for the ride, resulting in breakouts to new high ground among most mainstream indices. However, there are signs that such broad strength has begun to thin. For example, the last few days have witnessed a development in sharp contrast to that prior positive breadth. Looking at … Read more

Donald Trump is helping Twitter enormously but the stock market seems to discount any value to his incessant tweets unless it is of course about any OTHER company he tweets about.  This to me just doesn’t make any sense so I did some research about the potential sale of Twitter.  Twitter last year was reputed to be on the block but no buyers materialized. Who is going to buy Twitter? That’s the $18 billion question Silicon Valley has been asking itself for over a year since it became apparent Twitter wasn’t growing the way investors once hoped. In that time, … Read more

The stock rally ranks among the least-beloved in history, traders and analysts say. The technology bust and the financial meltdown taught individuals to shy away from stocks and to embrace bonds and cash. Investors poured $381 billion into bond mutual and exchange-traded funds between the start of 2014 and October, according to EPFR Global. Over the same span, they pulled a net $16 billion from stock funds. Source: As Dow Approaches 20000: Has This Rally Just Begun? – WSJ

They’re Not Jamie Dimon: Few CEOs Bought Their Own Stock in ’16by  Anders MelinDecember 30, 2016, 6:00 AM MST Insiders sometimes open their wallets when shares are cheapJPMorgan chief spent $26 million on his bank’s stock this year. Few top executives followed Jamie Dimon’s example this year in buying company stock.Insiders at a majority of S&P 500 Index companies didn’t purchase any of their firm’s shares in the open market this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, a far cry from the $26.6 million Dimon shelled out for JPMorgan Chase & Co. equity.Most corporate executives and directors steered clear … Read more

Not surprising is that insiders are buying the laggards. Abbot Laboratories, ABT  VP Blasser purchased $599k worth of Abbot on 12-20-16 near a 52 wk low. Another VP, Chairman of the Board and and Director have recently bought over $15 million of this medical technology behemoth Edwards Lifesciences, EW VP Szyman bought $1.1 million worth on 11-30 right after Director Gallahue purchased 3000 shares at $84.63 Medtronic PLC MDT had two directors buy stock, one for $1 million on 12-13-16 Allergan AGN CEO Brent Saunders bought $1 million worth as well as CFO Hilado adding to her holdings with $299.5k … Read more

High hopes for tech groups’ overseas cash pilesTax holiday proposed by Trump is aimed at boosting jobs but will probably fuel dealsInside by Richard Waters On the list of problems for 2017, what to do with more than half a trillion dollars of spare cash is the kind of conundrum most chief executives would love to face.That is the amount of money that just five tech companies — Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Cisco and Oracle — will have swilling around in their overseas coffers by the end of this year, according to rating agency Moody’s. Add in the rest of the … Read more

Join us for a special presentation December 13, 2016 at the Hotel Park City where were are hosting one of America’s great money managers. HSAX & CO, LLC present Theta Capital Partners saxangle.com/theta-parkcity/

Interest rates have risen sharply since the election, creating significant losses for fixed income investors.  Equity investors have benefited.  If rates are rising because the expectations of increased economic activity inspired by a change in political regimes, then a rise in rates is not a bad thing for stock prices if its muted.  On the other hand if rates are rising because bond investors fret that the new Trump administration will print money to finance a big increase in deficit spending, then it’s not necessarily a good thing for stock prices.  An increase in interest rates without a subsequent increases … Read more

Jim Cramer reviewed the events on his radar for next week, and found one that could bring the rally to a screeching halt. Wednesday could be a pivotal day.  The Fed will likely hike rates 0.25%, in and of itself not a material event but Yellen who is scheduled to speak after the Fed meeting could very easily upset the market with comments, not unlike Greenspan did when he uttered the words, irrational exuberance. Source: Cramer’s game plan: Next week could be your wake-up call that will stop the rally in its tracks

https://youtu.be/9ND8IMjwxes  The complete Fox News interview with Donald Trump