Insomniac Hedge Fund Guy

The Frenzied Bull Charges On- Insider Buys Week of Aug 21, 2020

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Last week we sounded the bell on Rocket Mortgage. We said to own the 600 LB mortgage gorilla when it rolled over on the dud of an IPO.  RKT made our week, popping 30%. Follow us on Twitter .That’s where we post the most- 280 characters is perfect for trading.  The pick of the week goes to an obscure biotech company you’ve never never heard of, Verrica Pharmaceuticals VRCA.  It went ballistic after two insiders bought stock, closing the week up 50% -not bad for a couple of days trading action. The pin action makes little sense to me as they … Read more

”s about to Ignite $UPWK Upwork

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The work from home economy is as hot as a firecracker, it’s as hot as a forest fire in California, and it’s about to ignite $UPWK Upwork Upwork Director Gregory Gretsch continues to buy large dollar amounts of gig economy upstart freelancer/independent contractor model Upwork. This time he bought 547,844 shares of UPWK at $14.71.  This is one of our largest holdings. We are big fans of Upwork and use their services repeatedly. It’s a great model.  They have a couple of direct competitors, Israeli-based Fiverr, and Freelancer.com.Since neither Fivvr nor Upwork are yet profitable, conventional fundamental analysis may not be … Read more

These are the Insider Buys that Matter Week Ending 8-14-20

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Earnings season is almost over and with it the blackout period that restricts corporate insiders from buying their own company’s stock.  Animal spirits are lighting up the market as insiders are adding fuel to the fire with the biggest increase in buying since the March lows.  Normally insiders buy their stock when it’s cheap and you see less buying when the market is making new highs.  Not this time!  Barry Diller shook up the online gambling world with his Interactive Corp IAC  disclosure that it had gone over the 10% reporting threshold with its most recent purchase of 9,705,785  shares of MGM at … Read more

Some Insiders are Killing it- Everything is UP- Week Ending February 7, 2020

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Wow- did you see our pick of the week, Groupon?  Groupon rocketed over 50% Friday on better than expected quarterly earnings and an enormous short squeeze. GRPN traded 13 times normal volume which makes it prime for a price reversal. I listened to the earnings call and not sure how convincing the turnaround story will be. Didn’t hear on attaboy from the handful of analysts obligatorily covering the fallen unicorn.  It’s still mind number to think they turned down $5.7 Billion from Google. I’m going to make a mental note that when Google offers me $5.7 billion for my company, … Read more

Stock Market Makes All Time High, Real Estate on Fire, and the Worst GDP in a Century

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Nice thing about math, there is not much point in debating it. The numbers are the numbers and some insider buys are much better than others. This dynamic spreadsheet will show you which ones. Here is the link to the trades- Warren Buffet bought $1.5 billion of Bank of America’s stock on the open market last week and no one is even talking about it.  It wasn’t that long ago that the news that Buffet was buying would cause of stampeded of buying by his followers.  Apple crushes 2nd quarter earnings, announces 4 for 1 stock split, it’s stock skyrockets … Read more

Insiders Who Nailed Market Bottom Are Starting to Sell Stocks – Notable Insider Buys 7-24-20

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According to Bloomberg, as U.S. stocks climb to their most expensive levels in two decades, the executives in charge of the companies benefiting from the rally are showing signs of anxiety.Corporate insiders, whose buying correctly signaled the bottom in March, are now mostly sellers. Almost 1,000 corporate executives and officers have unloaded shares of their own companies this month, outpacing insider buyers by a ratio of 5-to-1, data compiled by the Washington Service showed. Only twice in the past three decades has the sell-buy ratio been higher than now. Source: Insiders Who Nailed Market Bottom Are Starting to Sell Stocks … Read more

Bed Bath Beyond Dog Howls 17% Last Week after Insider Buy

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Here is the link to the trades- Once again Bed Bath Beyond BBBY teaches us you can make a lot of money from a bad stock if you buy it right. That’s certainly what Director Suge Gove did after the Company reported earnings, the stock cratered, and every analyst trash talked the company down.  Gove scooped up 34,000 shares at $7.89 and by weeks end was up 17%.  Not bad, Suge; I bet you wish you could sell. Insiders are subject to short swing rules that prohibit doing just that.  BBBY seems on terminal descent with Amazon, Wayfair, and now … Read more

The Willing Suspension of Disbelief- Insiders are Scarce Week Ending July 10th

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 Insiders buys were far and few in between last week. You can see them at this link to the trades- The most notable and outlandish was Harold Hamm’s monster buy of $47.6 Million of Continental Resources CLR at $17.77.  This is all the more remarkable since June, Hamm has bought $178 Million of this beleaguered oil and gas Bakken fracking pioneer.  Hamm has tons of this stock. Hamm is a big supporter of Trump who as much as he professes his love for the industry, the price of crude has cratered on his regime. Perhaps he feels oil will … Read more

Reality Check- Insider Buying Week Ending 6-26-20

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It was not a fun week for longs as Coronavirus is on the rise and insiders are blacked out before 2nd quarter earnings. I doubt that insiders were chomping on the bit to buy as the market rebound from the March lows has them unloading their holdings at a record pace. There were a few buys of interest and we highlight them here.  Until we figure out why our embedded Google sheet is not displaying in the RSS feed in our MailChimp blast, here is the link to the trades- Founder and former CEO Eric Lefkofsky bought $5.39 Million worth … Read more

Just how good are insider buying tips? See for yourself, they trounce the S&P 500

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We’ve added a new feature to our blog/newsletter about insider buying. As you know, each week we analyze the most notable buys and try to understand what they see and share this knowledge with the readers.  We don’t look at just any insider buys but ones we deem notable. A more detailed explanation of how we determine “notable” is described in detail below. Just how good are these insights?  Well now you can see for yourself.  From here on out, each week and for all of June and May we included a dynamically updated spreadsheet that tracks these highlighted insider … Read more

”t forget the Covid-19 test kit $QDEL Insider Buying Week of 6-19-20

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These are the insider buys that matter for last week. For real time insider alerts subscribe to our Twitter at https://twitter.com/theinsidersfund.  When insiders buy, stocks make knee jerk moves up. The best time period to make bank is the next three days, perhaps five and then the prior trend sets in.  Follow us on Twitter for the names we take an interest in. This week’s top movers are Camping World Holdings up 27.03% and Quidel, up 29.88% The average 3 day gain was 5.25% and holding just three days longer pushed it to 8.04%.  If there is no 5 day … Read more

What are Insiders Buying at Market Highs- Week 6-12-20?

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Fibrogen CEO Conterno bought 27,800 shares at $35.47.  After last year’s unexpected passing of founder and long-time helmsman Thomas Neff, FibroGen needed a permanent successor—and with its big roxadustat launch looming, that new CEO would ideally know the ropes in kidney and metabolic diseases. Conterno, who came from Lilly six months ago as its U.S. business chief and worldwide diabetes lead, became FibroGen’s new CEO, in January. This is his first open market purchase.  Here is a link to a  recent Goldman Sachs investor presentation According to their website, FGEN is dedicated to creating innovative, first-in-class medicines for the treatment … Read more

Riots, Protests, Pandemics and a Little Insider Buying Week Ending June 5th, 2020

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The monster purchase by Mitchell Rales of 141,20 shares of Danaher Corp DHR at $164.69 represented just 0.4% change in his holdings.  If an insider is doubling his holdings, this likely has more significance than just upping your holdings by 4/10 tenths of a percent, but this was still a monster buy and I wanted to analyze it. Danaher has made the Rales brothers billionaires and it seems they are none to eager to unload it. Not sure what to make of Director Glazer’s purchase of $1.7 Million of HCHC.  HC2 Holdings is a publicly traded investment vehicle with Philip … Read more

Quiet Insider Buying Shortened Week May 29th 2020

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Jazz Pharmaceutical Director Seamus Mulligan bought 50,000 shares at $111.08. Before investors pile in behind that enforcement, it’s worth considering Mulligan bought 50,000 shares back in 11/15/18 at $144.56. JAZZ had a few analyst downgrades after releasing last quarter’s earnings report. JAZZ is a leader in sleep medicine and has a growing hematology/oncology portfolio. Dynavax Technologies DVAX is a startup biotech.  The priced a 14M share offering at $5 below the last closing price osf $5.66. Director Jack bought 1,000,000 shares at $5. Do you think he knew that DVAX would announce a week letter that Sky would report a … Read more

Are stay at home stocks the “new dot-Com?

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This is a post of a letter that went out to partners of The Insiders Fund, so there is not much new on this other than many of our holdings in the Fund skyrocketed today with a sudden reversal of trend, value stocks trumping growth. I wouldn’t bet on this continuing but I’ll gladly take it. Lincoln Financial was up as much as 17% before pulling back to close up 11.20%. Nasdaq makes a new high and 30 million people file for unemployment. It all makes more sense when I heard this CNBC report today that the #1 usage of the … Read more

Mercury General Auto Insurer Chairman Puts the Petal to the Metal

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 Mercury General Chairman George Joseph buys $9.2 Million more of this California property and casualty insurer.  MCY  with a current 6.4% dividend yield and a 34 year history of consecutive dividend raises, looks particularly tempting.  It’s off 44% from its high and the Chairman of the Board has bought $24 million worth of the company’s stock in the last 10 days. People are driving less, auto claims are down. The potential loss of reinvestment income due to lower bond rates seems overstated by this drop in price. Besides Mercury has been historically a  relatively bigger player in the equity markets, … Read more

Insider Buying Picks Up- Week Ending 5-15-20

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Insider buying picked up this week across several depressed sectors like insurance,  small regional banks,  gaming, furniture, REITS, building products, restaurants and retailers, automotive and motorcycle and utility stocks. The buy of the week is property and casualty California auto insurer, Mercury General MCY.  Chairman of the Board George Joseph continued accumulating stock with $15 million of stock purchases at an average price of $35.95. MCY is down from it’s high this year of $52.  MCY yields 6.65%. People are driving less and insurance claim losses are down  as a result of that. Offsetting this, reinvestment rates on bond portfolios … Read more

A Few Insider Buys in some Beleaguered Stocks Week Ending May 9th 2020

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Private prison operator GEO Geo Group CEO Anthony Quinn continues to buy stock in this out of favor REIT play yielding an astounding 16.7% on Friday’s close. In the most recent 10Q the Company stated that Covid-19 pandemic adds a material concern to the financials. I think the stock reflects that with its yield. On March 24th they were rewarded  with a five year 90-100,000 participant contract with U.S. immigration services.  This $2.8 million purchase at $11.31 is the latest in large buys. He bought $1.2 Million on 3/12 at $11.65 and $8.5 million at $16.58 on 2-24-20. The stock … Read more

Bobok til you drop: South Koreans roar back to malls as coronavirus curbs ease – Reuters

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Perhaps there is some hope that shoppers will come back to U.S. beleaguered malls. Macerich (MAC) and Simon Property Group (SPG) insiders certainly hope so as they have bought millions of dollars worth of their company’s stock. (Reuters) – At a glitzy Chanel boutique in downtown Seoul, Kim Soo-yeon joined dozens of others in festive shorts and flare dresses, her eyes out for a clutch purse she had coveted for weeks during the coronavirus pandemic.A woman wearing a mask to avoid the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) shops at a luxury shop in a department store in Seoul, South … Read more

Insider Buys Week Ending May 1, 2020

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Our pick of the week, EDI Stone Harbor Emerging Market VP bought 100,837 at $5.88 yielding over 15%. Combined with the discount to NAV, the distribution rate for EDI as of May 1 was 27%.  The Stone Harbor Emerging Markets Total Income Fund (EDI) is not for the faint of heart. It’s down 38%YTD and it’s five year return is -5.5%. It’s a managed portfolio of Emerging Markets Debt (sovereign and corporate debt in both hard and local currency) combined with an ability to invest in Emerging Markets Equity, structured to maximize total return. The largest purchase last week was … Read more

A Few Insider Buys and they Pay off Big -Week Ending April 24th

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Director Stephen Luczo continues to buy when others retreat. This time he bought $1.1m of AT&T at $29.38.  When rates are near zero AT&T is paying out 7% dividend yield. He added to his Morgan Stanley bet $734.9K at $38.68. Geoffrey Yang bought 6,754 at $29.39 on 4/24/20. Several insiders participated in a secondary for Darden at $58.5.  DRI closed today at $78.50 Director Gerber bought $3 million of Haliburton at $8.68. HAL closed today at $8.91.  This one takes balls and Gerber has them as he bought $1 million on March 13th at $6.78 Director Plants bought 95,238 Cutera … Read more

Insider Buying has all but Disappeared -for now, Week Ending April 17th

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The tale of the tape is disappointing.  After an initial rash of buying, the insiders have disappeared. The most notable buy of the week was Director Stephen Burke’s massive $6.59 million dollar buy of JP Morgan, increasing his holdings by 50%. JPM responded, soaring almost 10% the following day, dragging the beleaguered sector with it. After the close, Key Corp President reported buying 100,000 shares at $10.36.  I expect KEY to pop Monday morning absent a market sell-off. Williams Sonoma Chairman Bellamy stepped up and bought this home cooking retailer, laying out $485,250 to purchase 9600 shares at $50.55. WSM … Read more

In the Belly of the Beast by Howie Bick on Vornado Realty Trust $VNO

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Analyzing VNO: Vornado Realty Trust Vornado Realty Trust is one of the biggest players in New York City Real Estate there is. Whether we’re talking about office, residential, or retail, they are one of the powerful and impactful players in the NYC Real Estate game. Between some of their developments, and purchases, they control some of the most valuable and high-profile properties scattered around New York City. Led by Steve Roth, the companies are one of the many high profile, high flying New York Real Estate Behemoths. Portfolio: A lot of the Vornado Realty Trust portfolio comprises office buildings, or … Read more

Fog of coronavirus war; where is the insider buying?

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They say we are in a war with Covid-19. Like most wars there is a lack of quality information. We look closely at insiders to gauge the health of corporate America. There is this narrative that insiders are buyer. That’s a false narrative. I don’t see it. Maybe it’s earnings blackout, maybe it’s the sharp off the bottom rally since March 25th, or maybe they are just deer frozen in the headlights like the rest of us.  You decide. PICK OF THE WEEK Carnival Cruise Lines Thursday April 9th 2020 SMPL Simply Good Foods Dir Ghez bought 30,000 at $16.32. This … Read more

‘s

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We blogged on this subject matter two weeks ago.  We bought Dominion Resources and the XLU utility ETF. Utility stocks might be more than a defensive investment.  Utility Stocks could be the new bluechips . Our opinion: Dominion Resources, in particular, has rallied sharply. In the past, it’s one utility that has had a fair share of insider buying.  The last significant purchase was back in September 13, 2019 when a director purchased 21,400 at $77.84.  Insiders have been more recently selling stock in the first part of March at $85 and $87.50.  Dominion closed at $73.51 Thursday. I wouldn’t … Read more

Its Easy to Keep up with Insider Buying when No One is Buying

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Most investors are putting together lists of bargain priced buys.  Here is our developing list.We track insider buys very closely and in this report. The 1st quarter ending March 31 is over and many companies enforce a black-out period preventing insiders to buy or sell their company’s stock. We are holding a lot of powder dry as we wait for a tsunami of buying once the black out ends. If not, we are all in a lot of trouble.  I did not like the Delta DAL sale announced on Friday by Berkshire Hathaway. We also closely scrutinize 10% holders as … Read more

Insiders Retreat and Turn into Sellers Week Ending March 27th

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The Washington Service reports insider buying ratio at the highest level they’v recorded since the Great Recession in the fall of 2008 and the retest in 2009.. They look at a 30 day moving average ratio of insider buys to sells.  All previous markets have sharply rebounded when this occurred. Is this time different? We track insider purchases over $200K very carefully and accurately. Last Friday there were only six buys over $200k and 145 sells.  It seems even insider buying is now rolling over.  That is likely because as we near the end of the quarter, most insiders are … Read more

Fortunes will be made following insiders but the risk his high

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So what are insiders buying this week as the market crumbles?Surprisingly less than they did last week.  In a sense, it was a relief as I log every insider buy over $200,000 and I could use a break to keep up.  The most logical explanation is that we are well into the quarter blackout period where insiders are prohibited from purchasing their own stock before earnings are released. The other explanation is dire- they are even less confident about the future this week than last. I choose to believe the former. At any rate, I’m not going to highlight what … Read more

Week Three- the Global Nightmare Continues

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Airlines, ski resorts, music festivals, bars and restaurants shut down. All sporting events ended or postponed. Near panic shoppers empty grocer’s shelves and a pervasive uneasiness soaks thru the public psyche like a blood stain spreading larger and larger with no sign of stopping. Health care professionals and workers anticipate a tsunami of virus stricken patients fighting for their lives and hordes more wrought with empathetic symptoms who need no medical treatment at all clogging up waiting rooms and hallways.  Vital supplies like testing, hospital beds, surgical masks and ventilators seem inexplicably in short supply. We are told the society … Read more

Bunge $BG to Buy or Bust or where this is smoke, there could be fire?

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In this report we analyze the investment prospects for Bunge, the giant agricultural trading company. We were initially attracted to Bunge by the large amount of insider buying so we wanted to analyze this further. This was right before the Coronavirus gripped the markets. The stock is considerably cheaper now.  We rate it as a 1. Even thought it has a low rating, this much insider buying is attractive. Where there is smoke, there could soon be fire. This is a checklist I use to quickly come to a conclusion on a stock.  I score a stock, each line getting … Read more