Last week felt like a tightrope walk in a hurricane. The market flirted with euphoria early on, thanks to AI-driven headline deals (AMD’s tie-up with OpenAI lit a spark), but all that optimism blew up in our faces by week’s end. I still think that the next financial meltdown will be caused by one of the following factors:
1.Sam Altman
2. Donald Trump
Friday was the sucker punch. Trump floated a 100% tariff on Chinese goods in retaliation to China’s new export controls on rare earths — markets didn’t just recoil, they slammed the floor. Tech names (especially semis) led the slide, sending the S&P and Nasdaq into what felt like a crash dive.
Key drivers:
- Valuations are overheated, especially in the AI / tech sectors. IMF and BoE are now warning of a “sharp correction” breathing down our neck.
- Trade war risk resurfaced — nothing complicated: tariffs + retaliation = chaos.
- Data blackout — the government shutdown has muzzled key economic metrics, making earnings season the only flashlight left to navigate by.
- Gold cracked $4,000/oz — that’s not just an inflation hedge anymore; that’s fear money.
That was just equities. I’m having my largest nightmare as crypto chaos bleeds over to the equities markets. What Went Down
- The market dumped ~$19 billion+ in liquidations in one day alone after Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese tech + export controls — shock factor spiked.
- Bitcoin and Ethereum weren’t spared. They slid hard, dragging the whole altcoin complex in their wake.
- Overleveraged longs got blown out. Margin calls, stop-hunts, cascading liquidations — usual crypto carnage.
- Regulatory risk and policy uncertainty added fuel. Senate crypto bill negotiations blew up just as selling pressure intensified.
- A strong USD and broader risk-asset jitters squeezed crypto’s “bet on debasement/inflation hedge” narrative. Barros
Why It Felt Like a Crash
- The speed and magnitude of the drop — crashes aren’t just slow leaks, they’re explosions.
- The cascading liquidations amplified it. What starts as a correction turns into a spiral.
- It was a moment of no “soft landings” — everything aligned bearish: macro, policy, technicals.
- Sentiment swung from manic euphoria to cornered animal in hours.
What to Watch Next Week (Because this doesn’t magically fix itself)
- Are we going to see a relief bounce or another flush?
- Fed or economic surprises could reignite volatility.
- Any policy signals around regulation or trade could tip the balance.
Bottom line: crypto just got smacked. This had “real correction” written all over it, not just some shakeout. Want me to pull up charts or liquidations heatmaps so you see the blood on the tape?
Bottom line: the market’s in a “proceed with extreme caution” regime. The early-week gains were real, but Friday reminded us we’re one tweet or tariff away from full-on panic. If you weren’t hedged, you got burned.
Name: John Jr. Rakolta
Position: Director
Transaction Date: 10-07-2025 Shares Bought: 25,154 shares an Average Price Paid of $70.41 for Cost: $1,771,093
Company: Agree Realty Corp (ADC):
Agree Realty Corp. is a fully integrated real estate investment trust that focuses on the ownership, acquisition, development, and management of retail properties net leased to leading national and regional tenants. Founded in 1971 by Executive Chairman Richard Agree, the company has built a strong portfolio of high-quality retail assets across the United States. Its common stock has been listed on the New York Stock Exchange since 1994. All assets and operations are conducted through its Operating Partnership, for which the company serves as the sole general partner with full management and control responsibilities.
John Rakolta Jr. has served on the Board of Directors of Agree Realty Corp since 2011, briefly stepping away during his tenure as U.S. Ambassador to the United Arab Emirates before rejoining the board in 2021. A seasoned corporate and civic leader, Rakolta is the Chairman and CEO of Walbridge, one of the largest construction firms in the United States—a role he continues to hold. In addition to his extensive business leadership, he has made significant contributions to public service and regional development through various civic and consular roles. Rakolta earned a Bachelor of Science in Civil Engineering from Marquette University and completed executive studies in small-business management at Harvard Business School.
Insomniac Hedge Fund Guy Opinion:
Agree Realty (ADC) is a high-quality net-lease REIT focused on retail properties leased to investment-grade tenants under long-term contracts. As of early 2025, its $7.7-$8B portfolio spans ~2,422 properties and ~50.3 million square feet, with occupancy near 99.6% and a weighted average lease term of ~8 years. With ~67-70% of base rent deriving from investment-grade tenants, its cash flows are durable and predictable.
Financial momentum is solid: Q1 2025 AFFO & Core FFO grew ~10-10.5% YoY; full-year AFFO per share for 2024 was ~$4.14, with guidance for 2025 raised to ~$4.29-$4.32. Revenue is growing ~13-15% YoY, driven by new acquisitions and lease escalations. The company is actively investing, with ~$700M+ deployed in net lease assets in recent quarters, and plans for $1.4–$1.6B total investments in 2025. Its balance sheet is resilient: strong liquidity (~$2.3B), forward equity commitments, and modest leverage (net debt to EBITDA ~3.1x), with no significant debt maturing until mid-2027–2028.
Valuation is premium among net-lease REITs, reflecting high portfolio quality and growth prospects; JMP recently called the stock “fairly valued.” Its AFFO multiple is higher than peers, limiting margin for error. Dividend yield (~4.2-4.3%) and consistent dividend increases support income investors. The biggest risks are rising interest rates, cap-rate compression, and potential weakening of retail tenant credit or tenant demand. Overall, Agree Realty is a solid income growth REIT with relatively low risk for its space, best suited for investors looking for stable cash flow rather than outsized growth.
Name: Mark F. Oneil
Position: Director
Transaction Date: 10-02-2025 Shares Bought: 10,816 shares an Average Price Paid of $46.21 for Cost: $499,807
Name: Mitchell D. Steenrod
Position: Director
Transaction Date: 10-02-2025 Shares Bought: 2,000 shares an Average Price Paid of $45.57 for Cost: $91,140
Company: Carmax Inc. (KMX):
CarMax, Inc., founded in 1993 and headquartered in Richmond, Virginia, is a leading retailer of used vehicles and related products in the United States. The company operates through two business segments: CarMax Sales Operations and CarMax Auto Finance. The Sales Operations segment offers a wide selection of used vehicles—including domestic, imported, luxury, hybrid, and electric models—along with vehicle auctions, extended warranties, and reconditioning and repair services. The Auto Finance segment provides financing solutions to retail customers across a broad credit spectrum through partnerships with various financial institutions.
Mark F. O’Neil is the Chairman of CarMax, Inc. (KMX) and has served on the company’s Board of Directors since 2019. He played a key role in CarMax’s early development and launch during the 1990s, holding several leadership positions from 1992 to 2000, including Vice President. Prior to his time at CarMax, Mr. O’Neil worked at Intel and McKinsey & Company, where he gained extensive experience in technology and management consulting. He later became active in the automotive and dealer software industries. Mr. O’Neil holds a Bachelor of Science in Industrial Engineering from Worcester Polytechnic Institute and a Master of Business Administration from Harvard Business School.
Mitchell D. Steenrod serves as the Lead Independent Director of CarMax, Inc., a leading U.S. automotive retailer traded under the ticker symbol KMX. He joined the CarMax Board of Directors in 2011 and brings extensive experience in finance and operations. Prior to joining CarMax, he served as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Pilot Travel Centers LLC, where he began his tenure in 2001 as Controller and Treasurer. Earlier in his career, he spent twelve years with Marathon Oil and Marathon Ashland Petroleum, holding various roles in accounting, management, and marketing. Mr. Steenrod earned a Master of Business Administration from Bowling Green State University and a Bachelor’s degree from The Ohio State University.
Insomniac Hedge Fund Guy Opinion: CarMax is no longer the high-growth story it once seemed — at least not under current macro headwinds. The fundamentals show a company with scale, decent management, and some margin leverage, but also significant drift: revenue has been flat to declining year-over-year lately, used car avg prices dropping, and financing / credit costs squeezing. Insider buying (like O’Neil, Steenrod) is a signal of some confidence — perhaps they see value or expect cyclic improvement — but insiders own <3%, which limits how much weight I assign to that.
My back-of-envelope DCF suggests current market prices (depending on where they are trading) may be expecting too rosy a scenario: relatively high margins, steady growth, benign financing/interest rate conditions. If those expectations don’t materialize, downside could be material. That said, if CarMax executes on omni-channel, solidifies margins, and the macro environment improves (lower rates, better credit), there is upside. I lean toward cautious: I’d consider it a speculative value/recovery play rather than a safe compounder.
Name: Thomas K. Brown
Position: Director
Transaction Date: 10-07-2025 Shares Bought: 10,000 shares an Average Price Paid of $18.72 for Cost: $187,200
Company: Conagra Brands Inc. (CAG):
Conagra Brands, Inc., founded in 1919 and headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, is a leading consumer packaged food company operating primarily in the United States. The company is organized into four business segments: Grocery & Snacks, Refrigerated & Frozen, International, and Foodservice. The Grocery & Snacks segment offers a wide range of shelf-stable food products, while the Refrigerated & Frozen segment provides temperature-controlled items sold through retail channels. The International segment distributes food products in various temperature states to retail and restaurant markets outside the United States. The Foodservice segment supplies branded and customized meals, entrées, sauces, and other culinary products to restaurants and foodservice organizations.
Thomas K. Brown has served as an independent director of Conagra Brands, Inc. since October 2013, bringing extensive expertise in global supply chain management and leadership. He previously held senior roles at Ford Motor Company, where he led global purchasing and ultimately served as Group Vice President before retiring. Prior to his tenure at Ford, Mr. Brown held key procurement and supply chain positions at United Technologies, QMS, and Digital Equipment Corporation. He earned a Bachelor of Business Administration degree from American International College.
Insomniac Hedge Fund Guy Opinion: Conagra is under fire. The numbers show a company caught in an inflation trap: input cost rising, tariffs biting, volumes falling, and margin compression everywhere. Management is trying to steer by cost savings, divestitures, and portfolio focus (frozen, snacks), but the upside from that looks limited unless consumer trends reverse. My rough DCF suggests the current stock price is overly optimistic — the risk that Conagra will disappoint is high. Unless they can arrest volume declines, improve margin discipline, and reduce leverage meaningfully, this is more of a turnaround gamble than a value compounder.
I lean bearish to neutral: could outperform peers if food inflation cools, but downside is material if pressures persist. If I were investing, I’d want to see one or two quarters of organic growth plus margin stability before committing.
Name: Tracy W. Krohn
Position: Chairman, CEO & President, 10% Owner
Transaction Date: 10-01-2025 Shares Bought: 286,842 shares an Average Price Paid of $1.84 for Cost: $527,259
Company: W&T Offshore Inc. (WTI):
W&T Offshore, Inc. is an independent oil and natural gas producer engaged in the acquisition, exploration, and development of energy properties in the Gulf of Mexico. The company produces and markets crude oil, condensate, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. Founded in 1983, W&T Offshore is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Tracy W. Krohn is the founder, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President of W&T Offshore, Inc., holding a significant ownership stake in the company. He has served as CEO since founding the company in 1983 and has been Chairman of the Board since 2004, in addition to serving as Treasurer and President. Mr. Krohn earned a Bachelor’s degree in Petroleum Engineering from Louisiana State University in 1978. He began his career as a petroleum engineer and offshore drilling supervisor at Mobil Oil before advancing to the position of senior engineer at Taylor Energy, prior to establishing W&T Offshore.
Insomniac Hedge Fund Guy Opinion: WTI is a rough diamond with razor-sharp edges. The numbers show a company under serious pressure: declining revenues, negative profits, elevated liabilities. But there are signs of life: production is improving QoQ, debt is coming down, insiders are buying, liquidity is solid. All of that suggests someone inside believes the bottom is closer than many think.
My DCF sketch shows current market prices already bake in considerable risk, but may be overly harsh on upside. If commodity prices recover, and WTI can maintain production growth while reining in costs, the stock could outperform. However, downside is steep if prices fall or costs rise—or if regulatory / environmental liabilities get worse.
I lean speculative bullish — not a safe long, but a high-risk/reward play. Worth a small position for those comfortable with volatility and E&P risk. Before diving in heavy, I’d want to see a full quarter of improving revenue/margin + stable guidance + no nasty surprises on liabilities or decommissioning costs.
Name: Paul Schimmel
Position: Director
Transaction Date: 10-08-2025 Shares Bought: 1,000,000 shares an Average Price Paid of $0.91 for Cost: $911,801
Company: aTyr Pharma Inc. (ATYR):
aTyr Pharma, Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on developing innovative therapies for inflammation and fibrosis by harnessing the biology of tRNA synthetases. These essential, evolutionarily conserved proteins possess unique domains that regulate numerous extracellular functions in humans. The company’s proprietary discovery platform is built on a comprehensive library derived from all 20 tRNA synthetases, enabling the exploration of novel signaling pathways to identify new therapeutic targets.
Paul Schimmel, Ph.D., has served as a director of aTyr Pharma, Inc. since approximately September 2005. He is a co-founder of the company and holds the position of Ernest and Jean Hahn Professor of Molecular Biology and Chemistry at The Scripps Research Institute. Prior to that, he was the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Professor of Biochemistry and Biophysics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dr. Schimmel earned a Bachelor of Arts in Biochemistry and Biophysics from Ohio Wesleyan University and a Ph.D. in Biophysical Chemistry from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Insomniac Hedge Fund Guy Opinion: Here’s how I see it: aTyr is a moonshot. The risk/reward profile is extreme. If efzofitimod delivers a clean Phase 3 readout for pulmonary sarcoidosis, the stock could multiply many-times, especially given how full the short interest is and how small the float effectively is. Insider buying by Paul Schimmel, preparations on manufacturing and commercial readiness, and institutional accumulation strongly suggest that someone inside believes in a bull case.
But caveats: right now the valuation reflects hope more than results. The revenue is negligible; until regulatory approval, commercialization, and pricing are proven, there’s no cash flow. The downside if things go poorly is brutal.
My lean: bullish with caution. I’d consider a small position ahead of the readout, but size it like you’re playing odds on a biotech binary event. If you can manage portfolio size, you could see outsized gain from success; but failure would wipe out much trailing valuation.
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Insiders sell the stock for many reasons, but they generally buy for just one – to make money. You’ve always heard the best information is inside information. Everyone with any stock market experience pays close attention to what insiders are doing. After all, who knows a business better than the people running it? Officers, directors, and 10% owners are required to inform the public through a Form 4 Filing of any transaction, buy, sell, exercise, or any other within 48 hours of doing so. This info is available for free from the SEC’s Web site, Edgar, although we subscribe to SECForm4 as they provide a way to manage and make sense of the vast realms of data. I’ve tried a lot of vendors. SECForm4 is one of the smaller ones, but I like supporting Frank. He is not arrogant. He’s helpful and has great prices. He also trades on his own data, so I like people that eat what they kill.
The bar is different from selling because the natural state of management is to be a seller. This is because most companies provide significant amounts of management compensation packages as stock and options. Therefore, we analyze unusual patterns with selling, such as insiders selling 25 percent or more of their holdings or multiple insiders selling near 52-week lows. Another red flag is large planned sale programs that start without warning. Unfortunately, the public information disclosure requirements about these programs, referred to as Rule 10b5-1, are horrendously poor. Also, planned sales that pop up out of nowhere are basically sales and are seeking cover under this corporate welfare loophole. I also generally ignore 10 percent shareholders as they tend to be OPM (other people’s money) and perhaps not the smart money on which we are trying to read the tea leaves. I say generally because some 10% shareholders are great investors. Think Warren Buffett and others
Of course, insiders can also be wrong about their Company’s prospects. Don’t let anyone fool you into believing they never make mistakes. Do your own analysis. They can easily be wrong, and in many cases, maybe most cases, have no more idea what the future may hold than you or me. In short, you can lose money following them. We have, and we curse aloud; what were they thinking!
We like Fly on the Wall for keeping up with what events might be happening, analysts’ comments, and whatever else could be moving the stock. Dow Jones news service is an essential tool, but many services pick up their feed like they do Bloomberg. For quick financial analysis, it’s hard to beat Old School Value.
A big callout to my assistant Ambreen who sets up this conversation by listing the notable buys that I’ve identified as soon as practically possible. She probes the 10k for a reasonable description of the business. I’ve found that to be the most accurate and succinct place to find out what a business actually does. When I have time, over the weekend, I’ll add some preliminary analysis to the Opinion at the end. Sometimes I won’t update this for a couple of weeks or more. A good way to use this blog is as I do, it’s a reference point and filing cabinet for various stocks with notable insider buying. It’s one of many tools I use. I regularly live on Chat GPT, Gemini, Claude, and occasionally Microsoft Copilot. I find the footnotes research very helpful in eliminating errors from AI hallucinations but these opinions are likely to contain inaccuracies due to the nature of the LLM’s.
The Insiders Fund is for qualified investors and by Prospectus only. Nothing herein should be construed otherwise. THE INSIDERS FUND prefers to invest in companies at or near prices that management has been willing to invest significant amounts of their own money in, but we have no requirement to do so. We also invest in many companies in anticipation of future insider buying or with the expectation that there is none at all.
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Prosperous Trading,
