Month: September 2013

In spite of this massive Government attack the stock acts very well.  If anything JP Morgan seems to be hurt more by the very short term reversal the rise of  interest rates than the Government assault.  As a shareholder I would be aggravated that they are settling for such an amount.  Didn’t they get some kind of indemnification when they bought Bear and WAMU at the Government’s behest?  We are buyers below $47 as we have sold Oct 47 Puts short. Government lawyers are backing up the truck again at J.P. Morgan Chase JPM +0.37% to extract another haul from the … Read more

by Henry Blodget I don’t know when Henry finds the time to opine on the market but he’s someone I listen to and respect considering how he was thrown under the bus only to get up even stronger.  But when it comes to his market calls forget it.  He was the analyst that buried more people in the 2000 Dot com crash than anyone else.  In fact he was railroaded out of the business and maybe rightfully so.  So Henry, keep up the great work on Business Insider but leave the market calls to people with a better track record, … Read more

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/22/2013 11:05 -0400 In a world in which all the matters is “scale”, the ability to Martingale down on losing bets as close to infinity as possible something which JPMorgan learned with the London Whale may not be the best strategy especially when one cant print money out of thin air, and being as close to the Feds Heidelberg rotary printer as possible, it was expected that that “expert” of government backstops and bailouts, the Octogenarian of Omaha, Warren Buffett, would have only kind words for Ben Bernanke. But not even we predicted that Buffett … Read more

I’m not trying to find something to say about the iPhone. I just can’t help myself.  Apple is one of those things you seem to have to talk about.  Like your health, your job, or your lover you suspect is cheating on you.  I am not even pissed about the stock.  We blew out of Apple before the Friday open when it was in the green, then bought some back $7 bucks lower after the close.  Damn day traders.  That’s a shame because I despise day traders but there’s no denying it.   Apple has become a day trader’s form of … Read more

My wall of worry is growing. 1Debt whatever 2.Bernanke flip flop 3. October health care surprise 4. October surprise 5.  Too many IPOs 6. Too many insiders selling 7. No one buying 8. Earnings warnings 9. Momentum stocks of all stripes are soaring, 10. Let me think about it.  There must be something else.

Do You Have A Million Dollar Problem?   According to the Federal Reserve’s inflation forecast of 2% per year your $1 million today will be just $817,301 in ten years.  That’s probably optimistic.* Maybe your investment advisor can help you keep up? Not likely. 80% of professionals don’t even beat the market according to SPIVA.* You say that’s all right.  You abandoned these overpaid do-nothing advisors years ago and now you manage your own account with low cost index funds.  Good luck.  The S&P 500 has just now reached  the highs of 2000 when adjusted for inflation. You have earned zip, … Read more

Fed officials kept the central bank’s $85 billion-per-month bond-buying program in place, saying they wanted to see more evidence the economy can sustain improvement before scaling back.  The bull roars!  S&P rises 20.76 points and the Dow lifts 147.  Priceline breaks $1000 and surpasses Federal Express market cap. The last week we have been adding to MLPs like Kinder and El Paso, REITS, Utilities, and high yield bond funds.  That was very opportune for us.  We bought these beaten down groups because that’s about the only  thing insiders have been buying.   I think we are well positioned for the … Read more

The Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Indexes Performance data for Aug 2013 has been updated. Please visit our site athttp://www.hedgeindex.com for further details.   Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index Performance Index / Sub Strategies Value** Aug 13 YTD 1 Year Annl* Std Dev* Sharpe* Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index 504.30 -0.54% 4.03% 7.16% 8.58% 7.37% 0.77     Convertible Arbitrage 412.71 0.72% 4.47% 6.83% 7.47% 6.73% 0.68     Dedicated Short Bias 35.32 0.03% -17.36% -23.22% -5.15% 16.68% -0.48     Emerging Markets 405.34 -0.24% 2.87% 9.21% 7.38% 14.47% 0.31     Equity Market Neutral 252.48 -1.72% 3.00% 4.43% 4.82% 10.04% 0.19     Event Driven 585.72 … Read more

Barron’s publishes two  major articles this week.  The cover story is that the big money aided by their financial advisors,are getting back in risky assets with a vengeance.  See Seeking Higher Returns By KAREN HUBE via Seeking Higher Returns – Barrons.com. The next article by regular columnist Up and Down Wall Street’s Randall Forsyth states that when magazine covers herald a bull market it’s a reliable indicator that it’s over and the opposite is about to happen.  Beware the Bull . Who are you supposed to believe?  The financial advisors that missed the enormous run from the bottom that has doubled … Read more

One of our best clients forwarded this to me. I thought this was interesting since Apache is is our largest holding at Sax Angle Partners, LP..  Although we lightened up it on Friday, it still remains our largest holding.  I don’t believe the market will correct significantly either.  I’m glad Barron’s publishes a track record.  That’s the first thing I look at. I’m not in the habit of taking advice from someone who is doing worse than me and our track record is more than twice better.  Nonetheless, it’s nice to hear successful market participants agreeing with you.  None the … Read more

One of the things we talk about in the Investment Survival Workshop is developing the mindset to think ahead. The point being is that when you have a regular exercise routine, you have goals in mind.  When you are planning an investment strategy, it’s no different.  What’s your time period?  Are you a long-term investor or someone who is just trading week to week or even a day trader?  As part of a routine, find time to anticipate what’s going to happen for some period in the future.Everyone’s time frame will be different.   With that in mind, here are a few … Read more

Not much on the investment horizon except the Fed tapering.  Twitter’s IPO although certain to be a headline stealer won’t happen for weeks.  Syria is on the back burner.  It’s a few days early for 3rd quarter warnings.   By RANDALL W. FORSYTH “Lord, make me chaste — but not yet,” St. Augustine famously prayed. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and some of his colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee may be invoking analogous words when they gather next week to consider what to do about its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program after the “disappointing” August employment numbers reported Friday. … Read more

Smart money is betting on the Fed tapering to be announced at next week’s FOMC meeting.  Analysts believe the improvement in the labor market has met the Fed’s criteria to begin trimming its buybacks.  I believe they are likely to be very careful tampering with MBS as long-term rates for housing have already risen from 3 5/8 % to 4 7/8% in just a few months since they first mentioned tapering.  I am sure they are concerned that rising rates will be a drag on the housing recovery.  Meanwhile inflation remains soft and Bernanke would like to be able to leave … Read more

Chansoo Joung a two year  board member of Apache stepped up and bought 10,000 shares at $86. on 9-3-13.  That’s a striking buy not just for the size but for the timing.  Apache announced a surprise deal with the Chinese government owned Sinopec on 8-29 causing the stock to rally 9% the following day.  Undoubtedly Mr. Joung was aware of the deal and was restricted from buying prior to the announcement.  This large purchase is significant because he bought after a strong run-up and considering Mr. Joung’s background, he might have been instrumental in bringing the Chinese on board giving … Read more

Monday September 2nd Markets closed for Labor Day.  That didn’t stop the futures from closing Monday morning up 16.25 S&P points, 112 Dow points.  Chinese PMI numbers but mostly Syrian attack delay all contributed to the rally.  The week’s news headlines are likely to be consumed with the Congressional debate on whether the U.S should embark on some military action against the Syrian regime as punishment for their use of chemical weapons.  Since nothing will apparently be decided until the following week as Harry Reed said he would put up to vote the week of September 9th. The markets will … Read more