Month: August 2012

Election is basically over according to Intrade

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If you haven’t heard of Intrade, you probably are outside leading a normal life.  For those of you that haven’t, it’s the popular betting site that concentrates on political events. According to the Washington Post ” The site’s collective wisdom tends to be more reliable than than the cadre of professional pundits when it comes to forecasting election results. (And, yes, we are including ourselves in the “professional pundit” category — for better and worse.) In 2008, bettors got only two states wrong — Indiana and Missouri. Bettors thought Indiana would go Republican and Missouri would go Democratic. Neither prediction was right. … Read more

| ZeroHedge

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Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/30/2012 15:46 -0400   As the charts below suggest – in somewhat stunning technicolor – that since the Knight-algo was put-to-death, NYSE volumes have coincidentally plunged by 40%! Todays run-rate with an hour to go was the lowest of the year. For those that hang on the consideration that this is due to high-priced stocks and USD-volumes are stable – err, wrong answer – futures volumes cracked in half also and that is a stable USD volume; The summer doldrums explains it – err, wrong answer – we are 20 percentage points below a normal … Read more

| ZeroHedge

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This is hilarious!   by Tyler Durden on 08/30/2012 12:53 -0400Ben Bernanke RealityAs Bernanke and Draghi carefully try to centrally-plan navigate us mere mortals through this dismal period of market and economic reality, we thought this clip was a perfect analogy for the heavy-lifting job they are doing… and the likely outcome.Note the rather entertaining gentleman running for cover on the left – the long-only talking-heads? via Luxury Yacht Down: What Happens When Central-Craning Goes Horribly Wrong | ZeroHedge.

Setback Leads Romney to Reinvention – NYTimes.com

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By MICHAEL BARBAROPublished: August 29, 2012 99 Not long after Mitt Romney dropped out of the presidential race in early 2008, a titan of New York finance, Julian H. Robertson, flew to Utah to deliver an eye-popping offer.   via Setback Leads Romney to Reinvention – NYTimes.com. On a personal note, this is why the NYT is really a far better paper than the WSJ.  This is a largely favorable article on Romney.  Can you imagine the WSJ doing the same for Obama?

Time to Go All In and Be Ready for the Finale

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As we approach the start of the month of September, it’s time to remind you that the window for investing in September is rapidly closing. I have no idea what the traditionally difficult month of September will bring us but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if there is a lot of volatility and a lot of opportunity.   I have repeatedly expressed my enthusiasm for the market in numerous blog posts at the Sax Angle so if there is a September swoon we will have ample cash to take advantage of it.  You have to be ready willing and … Read more

Apple 64GB iPhone 4S trade-in offer: $345 for good condiction

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Apple offers up to $345 for used iPhones ahead of iPhone 5 launchBy: Brad Reed | Aug 29th, 2012 at 06:45PM   AAPL next-generation iPhone hasn’t been officially announced yet, the company is providing a nice gift for users who bought the previous model. TheNextWeb reports that Apple’s recycling program is now offering up to $345 for the iPhone 4S in good condition, or $45 more than what Samsung 005930 was offering for the 64GB iPhone 4S earlier this year. The cash that users receive comes in the form of a gift certificate for Apple stores, so this current offer … Read more

Donors Invest Millions in Romney for Billions in Returns – Bloomberg

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I expect Romney to bridge the gap in polls or even pull ahead shortly due to the expected convention bounce.  These are some ideas from Bloomberg that could benefit.  I think the biggest winner will be the defense industry but it may be practically impossible to avoid cutting the outlay for defense.  But it’s all about perception in the short term.  The most obvious winner is the oil and gas industry and Harold Hamm from Continental Resources (CLR), Romney’s key energy advisor. By Alison Fitzgerald and Julie Bykowicz – Aug 29, 2012 5   More than half of casino billionaire … Read more

‘t take much to ignite Intel

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This rant from Cramer came up when I was searching for something on Intel.  Intel is entering oversold territory and diverging with a bullish buy signal.  It won’t take much to ignite a little rally here.  On the other hand MSFT is the exact opposite chart. Apples patent win isnt enoughIts beef with Samsung wont be over until Apple moves all its chip work to Intel. Will Apple AAPL -0.13% now use the patent to go after Samsung with everything it has and get injunctions against Samsung to block all selling of the illicit phones? Or will it just demand … Read more

The Aleph Blog » Blog Archive » How Warren Buffett is Different from Most Investors, Part 1

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How Warren Buffett is Different from Most Investors, Part 1There was an academic article published recently on the investing of Warren Buffett.  Afterward, I thought I saw a few articles reflecting on it, but here is the only one I see now: There’s Warren Buffett — and then there’s the rest of us.Buffett is different, because he grew as an investor and as a businessman, and usually made the right moves over a 50+ year career.  When you don’t have a lot of assets, and few people are doing value investing, you can do amazing things with special situations, and being … Read more

Apple will sue Google next

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“Our lawsuit is saying, ‘Google you f***ing ripped off the iPhone, wholesale ripped us off,’” Jobs said, according to Isaacson. “I will spend my last dying breath if I need to, and I will spend every penny of Apple’s $40 billion in the bank, to right this wrong. I’m going to destroy Android, because it’s a stolen product.” The verdict reached today will set the stage for Apple taking down Google in the biggest shoot down in tech history.  It’s Google they’ve been after from the beginning and you can be sure the management of Apple is doing this and … Read more

Too much is being made of the death of the PC

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I know this first hand. My 13 year old was desperate to buy an iPad.  Now he doesn’t even use it.  Instead I use it and he lives on his MacBook.  When Jobs said the iPad wouldn’t cannibalize the MacBook, he was mostly right.   CHART OF THE DAY: The Older You Are, The More Important You Consider The iPad To Be The older a person is, the more important they consider a tablet like the iPad to be, according to the chart below which comes from Deloitte. As you can see, it surveyed people of varying ages and asked … Read more

September surge postponed to middle of the month- Republican convention next week very negative for markets

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The Republican platform is very negative short term for the market.  This talk of hard money, getting rid of Bernanke, tough talk on China is all very negative for the market.  Contrary to popular opinion, the market likes Obama or more specifically Ben Bernanke and the anticipated Republican surge could make the markets very nervous.  All you had to do was watch the action today when CNBC reported that Romney would not reappoint Bernanke.  We are lightening up and adding to our short positions. If the Democrats start to regain their polling advantage after their convention, the market could set … Read more

Microsoft Stock Poised for 30% Upside – Barrons.com

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I agree with this article yet the short term trend is down.  Look to buy Mr. Softie at the 200 day MA at $29.52.  Patient investors can own now but you may be able to average in a little lower.   Don’t Be So Hard on Microsoft By DIMITRA DEFOTIS | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR Windows 8, torrents of free cash flow and a potential dividend increase may lift the underperforming stock. Fred Hickey: “That is the lowest I have seen the multiple in years.” Windows 8 may provide a window of opportunity for Microsoft investors, but so too should the company’s … Read more

Why rates will stay low and the market will make new highs

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I’ve written before about my belief that based on the dual mandate of the Fed to maintain both high employment and inflation protection, rates will stay low for far longer than anyone imagines.  We are entering a structural era of high unemployment where the jobs normally ceded by retirees are not developing due to socio-economic phenomenon.  This article elaborates on my thesis.   By Quentin Fottrell     After four years of college, many graduates are ending up in jobs that only require the ability to operate a cash register with a smile.Shutterstock.comAfter commencement, a growing number young people say … Read more

‘t write Intel off

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Intel and Microsoft have a big product cycle coming up.  Also Intel powers all the computers in Apple’s lineup.  Too much talk of cannibilization of notebook computers by tablets.  The tablet is no more a substitute for a notebook than a bicycle is for a car.  It’s novel, new, and lots of fun but serious work will always be done  on a notebook for some time. Monica Chen, Taipei; Joseph Tsai, DIGITIMES [Tuesday 31 July 2012] Intel general manager of mobile platform business Navin Shenoy at a pre-show conference before the company’s Ultrabook Ecosystem Symposium on July 31 in Taiwan, pointed out … Read more

JNJ goes ex dividend 8-24

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I expect JNJ to bounce off its 50 day MA at $67.78 as it approaches it’s ex dividend date on August 24th.  If you plan on holding beyond the next few days, the DePuy hip replacement settlements seem to be factored into the current price.  With it’s out-sized dividend and a sizable discount to its net present value, this may be an opportune time to build a position in this high yielding blue chip. The caveat though is if it doesn’t bounce here, there’s a lot of daylight below.

Cluster insider selling is not a cluster**ck

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I’ve spent the last two days going over cluster insider selling reports from the Washington Service.  It’s generally agreed that insider selling is not as useful in predicting stock prices as buying but cluster selling does have some onerous implications.  If the consensus opinion at a company is that management wants to lighten up, then you have to ask yourself why you are plunking down your hard earned money on their stock. There’s an obscene amount of insider selling going on right now.  I guess I say obscene because I wish I had Peter Thiel’s $450 million dollars worth of … Read more

This could cause a market crash

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Romney Calls For Fed Audit As Party Mulls Platform Plank By Lisa Lerer and Julie Hirschfeld Davis – Aug 20, 2012 4:57 P   .Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney renewed support for auditing the Federal Reserve, wading into an issue that threatens to spark a fight at his party’s national convention next week.“The Federal Reserve should be accountable,” Romney told thousands of voters at a campaign rally today in Goffstown, New Hampshire. “We should see what they’re doing.” via Romney Calls for Fed Audit as Party Mulls Platform Plank – Bloomberg. I’m worried about a lot of things but none … Read more

Latest hedge fund results from Barclay Hedge are in

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It’s pretty  amazing how much some long- short equity funds have returned during the last 18 months.  Our hats off to Privet Fund, LP up 97.3% over the last 18 months with a CAR 3yr. return of 23.33.  There are many new names on the list and old standbys like Senvest Israel Partners, up 74.40% during the same time period.  What’s more outstanding is that this has been a difficult time for most long-short professional managers including ourselves.  Many names of well known fund managers are absent from this list.  Often times emerging managers can outperform their more established peers … Read more

America’s state will expand whoever wins – FT.com

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What I got out of this piece from former Treasury Secretary is the shocking amount of money that will be spent on health care by the aging boomers.   By Lawrence Summers With the selection of Paul Ryan as the Republican vice-presidential candidate, it is clear both political parties agree that the central issue in the presidential election will be the scale and scope of government involvement in the US economy. There will be disagreement over what constituted “normal” levels of spending in the past and indeed over what constitutes “spending”. But there is a widespread view in both parties … Read more

Rare opportunity for speakers at GOP convention – CNN.com

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I expect unusual stock price movement during and immediately after the Republican convention   By Kevin Liptak Convention speakers a chance for party to showcase its best in prime timeNew Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will give high-profile GOP keynote addressFlorida Sen. Marco Rubio gets coveted opportunity to nominate RomneyConvention speeches can backfire — just ask Pat Buchanan or Bill ClintonWashington CNN — For one week in August, the Republican Party will have a guaranteed place on prime time TV and, it hopes, voters undivided attention.For many watching, the Republican National Convention will provide the first glimpse of a political fight … Read more

| Live Trading News

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  Economist Shayne Heffernan has identified the state of the European Economy, rising debt in the USA and a Global rise in unemployment as a reason to re-evaluate portfolio holdings and in many cases, it is time to sell. While many are trying to talk the market up, the reality is the economy has not seen improvement significant enough to reflect the growth seen on the US markets. As Warren Buffett has said, “be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.” via Shayne Heffernan Says It’s Time to Sell | Live Trading News.

Tracking Top Funds Activity: Q2 2012

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SATURDAY, AUGUST 18, 2012 Tracking Top Funds Activity: Q2 2012 Earlier this week, wrote a comment on setting your sights on Soroswhere I briefly discussed what some top hedge funds bought and sold in Q2 2012. Will dedicate this weekend to take an in-depth look at how top funds positioned themselves during the second quarter. Before I proceed, please remember the three sacred rules of 13-F filings: Never buy or sell any stock based solely on 13-F filings. Never buy or sell any stock based solely on 13-F filings. Never buy or sell any stock based solely on 13-F filings. Got … Read more

Buy Delta Air Lines: Debt And Cost Reductions Are Setting The Stage For A Rally – Seeking Alpha

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Buy Delta Air Lines: Debt And Cost Reductions Are Setting The Stage For A RallyAugust 19, 2012 Airlines are a notoriously difficult business. From fuel costs to the capital intensity needed to run an airline, this industry is certainly a difficult one, unless you are Southwest LUV, which is the only airline to have never filed for bankruptcy. But despite the difficulties of the airline industry, not every company needs to be avoided. One airline in particular has an intense focus on reducing debt and controlling costs, and by doing so, it is setting the stage for a rally in … Read more

Strategic Insider Selling – SEC gives giant loophole to corporate insiders

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First off- this is not news.  This loophole has been in existence since 2000 but it’s sinister characteristics have not been adequately publicized.  I am including in this post the entire paper I found from the Yale Law Library written by Todd Henderson of the University of Chicago Law School, Alan D. Jagolinzer from Stanford University Graduate School of Business, and Karl A. Muller, III of  The Pennsylvania State University Smeal College of Business.  It’s the most comprehensive analysis of this problem I have found to date although the authors are predictably looking at it from the perspective of protecting their corporate clients not John … Read more

Playing the Long Dividend Game: Heard on the Street – WSJ.com

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We scooped the Heard on the Street guys with their good credit default swap credits with high yield.  Here’s our own list gratis compiled by bright and personable  internet Steve Pery         Swap Prices and Dividend Yields Ticker CDS Price Div. Yield TCP 88.00 7.69% AZN 58.00 6.80% VOD 89.50 5.64% BCE 59.50 5.42% RDS.A 79.50 5.38% PHG 93.50 5.17% T 82.50 5.13% GSK 57.00 5.12% MO 93.00 5.00% CAN 92.00 4.98% TE 90.50 4.95% COP 75.50 4.87% LMT 90.00 4.81% VZ 69.50 4.80% NVS 36.00 4.75% LLY 71.00 4.74% SI 72.50 4.72% STO 86.00 4.66% RCI … Read more

September Surge?

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Last September was not a lot of fun. Fortunately it set us up for a great October and a strong finale into the new year.  Small wonder that September is challenging. September’s historical record is dismal. According to Market Watch, since 1896 when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US:DJIA)  was created, the Dow has lost an average of 1.07% in September. The average gain for all other months is 0.71%. That spread of 1.78 percentage points is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use to determine if a pattern is most likely genuine. Yes, that statistical quirk and $3.95 … Read more

Why is the market going up?

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We’ve blogged repeatedly about our view that the investment community has yet to remark stocks based on a 10 year 2% risk free rate of return.  We are now in a period of ultra low interest rates that is likely to persist far longer than conventional wisdom dicates.  The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of stable prices and full employment.  The state of high unemployment today is far more complex than just the result of an economic recession.  Baby boomers are for the most part not financially ready to retire and will be working far longer than most people … Read more

"The insomniac hedge fund guy" is a moniker Harvey Sax, the portfolio manager for The Insiders Fund has used from time to time on email, blog , and social media posts. While Mr. Sax is the portfolio manager of The Insiders Fund, these posts are not communications from, nor endorsed by, Alpha Wealth Funds, LLC or any of its managed funds. References to Alpha Wealth Funds or its affiliates are for identification only and do not imply sponsorship or approval. All registered trademarks herein are the property of their respective owners.

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