Month: June 2012

Just A Very Visible Fat Finger? Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/28/2012 16:15 -0400 Equities did it again – and no matter what narrative a mainstream media channel needs to comprehend the monkey-hammering that occurs every second in our ‘market’, it seems a fat-finger 50k block of S&P 500 e-mini futures (or around $3.3bn notional equivalent) was enough drive the nominal price index up 1% to close the day-session almost green (and rather notably right at yesterday’s closing VWAP). All the highly correlated sectors of the equity market surged with them (led by Energy and leaving financials just in the … Read more

Ray Dalio: Don’t Assume That Germany Will Bail Europe Out; Consider The “Fat Tail” A Significant Possibility Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/26/2012 19:54 -0400 European Central Bank Germany Lehman Lehman Brothers Ray Dalio Snakeoil Salesmen Lately, more and more professional investment “advisors” and newsletter recommendations boil down to just one catalyst: wait for either Germany, the ECB or the Fed to step in, as usual, and bail the world out, because, well, they have to, and any additional thought is rendered moot as fundamental analysis is meaningless under central planning (plus it is actually more work than just repeating … Read more

Look no further than the Soros interview to understand why markets went down sharply today.  

Courting the Chinese Buyer Buyers from China are pouring billions into residential property—and developers are courting them with everything from feng shui to lucky numbers.   By LAUREN A. E. SCHUKER A new wave of buyers from China is snapping up luxury properties across the U.S., injecting billions of dollars into the country’s residential real-estate market. Lauren Schuker has details on Lunch Break. Photo: Erhard Pfieffer. A new wave of buyers from China is snapping up luxury properties across the U.S., injecting billions of dollars into the country’s residential-real-estate market. The industry is scrambling to court the new buyers. Some … Read more

CHART- know how to read charts. I firmly believe I can improve the price of buying or selling from an understanding of chart action. Stock is very oversold; +1   ANALYSTS- read analyst reports but come to your own conclusions. 4 strong buy, 10 hold (according to CNBC); -1   INSIDERS- if the people that know the company the best are not buying it, why should you? Chairman purchased 112,000 shares at $25.02 on 6/8/12, director purchased 4,500 shares at $23.60 on 6/15/12; +1   MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION 10Q AND 10K- this is the only truthful thing you will read about a company. It’s composed … Read more

Oil Stocks Biggest Losers With Valuations Lowest Since 2009 By Lu Wang – Jun 24, 2012 10:53 PM MT Facebook Share   At a time of record fuel demand, bountiful oil and natural gas, and expanding economies, no stocks are doing worse in the world than energy producers from BP Plc to Hess (HES) Corp. The MSCI World Energy Index (MXWO) has declined 9.6 percent this year, more than any other group, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The gauge has climbed 45 percent since equities bottomed in 2009, less than any industry with earnings tied to economic growth. In … Read more

U.S. Banks Aren’t Nearly Ready for Coming European Crisis By Simon Johnson Jun 24, 2012 4:30 PM MT The author, an MIT Professor is especially negative on JP Morgan.  This is an interesting read to go along with Jamie Dimon’s command performance in front of Congress last week. via U.S. Banks Aren’t Nearly Ready for Coming European Crisis – Bloomberg.

RAJA 07:09 EDT SPN theflyonthewall.com: Superior Energy downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James Raymond James downgraded shares based on lower 2013 U.S. land rig count assumptions and a bearish view on oil prices. Price target lowered to $25.50 from $37. :theflyonthewall.com 07:09 EDT PTEN theflyonthewall.com: Patterson-UTI Energy downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James Raymond James downgraded shares based on lower 2013 U.S. land rig count assumptions and a bearish view on oil prices. Price target lowered to $19 from $21. :theflyonthewall.com 07:09 EDT ORIG theflyonthewall.com: Ocean Rig UDW downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond … Read more

CHART- know how to read charts. I firmly believe I can improve the price of buying or selling from an understanding of chart action.  No sign of a turnaround yet; -1   ANALYSTS- read analyst reports but come to your own conclusions. 4 strong buy, 6 buy, 2 hold, 1 sell (according to CNBC); +1   INSIDERS- if the people that know the company the best are not buying it, why should you? Independent director Charles Haggerty recently purchased 40,000 shares at a price of $6.93-$8.07; +1   MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION 10Q AND 10K- this is the only truthful thing you will read about a … Read more

I read Barron’s roundtable religiously.  It’s the most interesting thing in the whole magazine and comes out twice per year.  Before I read it though, I print out the past recommendations and not just for the past period.  The guru that has been generally more right than wrong is Felix Zulauf.  He says plan for a complete financial global breakdown.  That’s shocking. Betting on the end of the world is generally not a good bet but it only takes being wrong once.   FELIX ZULAUF Is there a good word from Europe? ZULAUF: Adjusted for inflation, Italy trades at levels … Read more

If you haven’t seen this interview with Gundlach before it’s worth a look.  He talks about financial repression, natural gas and his short on Apple.  

Form Worst To First – S&P Has Best Day Of 2012 Shortly After Worst Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/06/2012 16:17 -0400 Ben Bernanke Copper High Yield Investment Grade SPY Three days after posting its biggest single-day loss in seven months, it makes perfect sense in this nonsensical market for the S&P 500 e-mini futures to post their best gain in six months (a 4-sigma drop to a 3-sigma gain). Volume was heavy (and we note came in size at the end). Financials went berserk with MS and BofA ripping around 8% higher along with Energy and Industrials all up … Read more

No one has a better network than Warren Buffett so he is the economist I pay most attention to. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett, speaking to the Economic Club of Washington, said he believed the chances of a U.S. recession were very low unless the euro zone crisis develops in ways that ”spill over [in the United States] big time.” Buffett, speaking to Carlyle Group CEO David Rubenstein, said he favored a federal budget plan with revenues at 19% of GDP and spending at 21%. (June 6, 2012) via Reuters TV | Buffett: chance of double dip U.S. recession very low … Read more

After re-doing the valuation on Halliburton and refining the inputs to the DCF model, the stock looks like it has even more potential upside with a new intrinsic value of $63.24, representing a 117% upside from the current price level.  The energy sector has been hit hard lately and looks like it is about to bottom out.  Look for bullish divergence in the near future for a strong buy opportunity.  See our post from April 11 for the rest of the checklist.  saxangle.com/2012/04/hal-halliburton-company-snapshot/  

                  CHART- know how to read charts. I firmly believe I can improve the price of buying or selling from an understanding of chart action.  Recent Bearish Divergence; -1   ANALYSTS- read analyst reports but come to your own conclusions. 5 strong buys and 5 holds (according to CNBC); 0   INSIDERS- if the people that know the company the best are not buying it, why should you? Lead independent director Kevin Burns has made 3 purchases since May 7 totaling 20,000 shares at a price range of $15.27-$16.15. Chairman and CEO Rudman has made 2 … Read more